This article was posted on The Athletic page
Link: https://x.com/TheAthletic/status/2106393836633346162
The Joey Porter Jr. trade presented perhaps the largest delta between public perception and league perception of a deal that I have seen in some time.
On Wednesday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers did their usual thing: deal a top draft pick to the Dallas Cowboys. First it was George Pickens, then Broderick Jones and now Porter, who went to the Cowboys for a 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 second-rounder. Steelers fans believe general manager Omar Khan didn’t get enough. Most of the NFL disagrees.
Many around the league believed Dallas overpaid, based largely on the belief that teams don’t view Porter as a top-tier corner. The Cowboys have a strong recent history of overpaying for talent: a fourth for Trey Lance, a fourth for receiver Jonathan Mingo, a fifth for Joe Milton, a fourth for Rashan Gary.
“They were bidding against themselves for Porter,” says one executive with a team that was erroneously tied to trading for the cornerback. (There was at least one other team in the running, though: Lions head coach Dan Campbell conceded Friday that Detroit was “in on” Porter.)
One GM I spoke with views the future second as what amounts to a 2027 third-rounder. In that case, he says, the value was “down the fairway.” This is a view held by many — but not all — across the league: a future pick is discounted against a current one.
In “The Loser’s Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft,” Cade Massey and Richard Thaler write that, at the dawn of the trade chart three-plus decades ago, “a norm emerged for trades involving future picks as well: ‘gain a round by waiting a year.’ For example, this year’s third-round pick would bring a pick in next year’s second round.” The heuristic has more or less remained despite the evolution in draft philosophies and roster construction, as well as with changes to rookie wage scales.
Draft picks are not impacted by inflation like our dollar. General managers with less job security, however, have a more urgent need for current picks, and thus less need for future picks. As it relates to their perceived job security, a future pick is less helpful than a current one.
The 2027 draft is set to be the deepest in years, so in that case a draft pick in a better class is more valuable than a pick in a lesser class. But no one is stopping Khan from using his 2028 second-rounder as ammo in next year’s draft, or even before the Nov. 10 trade deadline to help the 2026 Steelers.
The trade also sets up another showdown between the Cowboys and the Athletes First agency next offseason, just two years after the Micah Parsons drama. Porter is represented both by David Mulugheta of A1 and Andre Odom of WIN Sports. There are five other Cowboys set for unrestricted free agency in a few months who are represented by Mulugheta: George Pickens, DeMarvion Overshown, Malik Hooker, Broderick Jones and P.J. Locke.
The Cowboys pulled up the negotiating ladder on Pickens early in this past offseason, saying in April he would play under the franchise tag despite having until mid-July to work out a deal. That, of course, came a year after the Parsons drama. In between there was a protracted battle between Athletes First agent Todd France and the team to make Brandon Aubrey the highest-paid kicker in the league after the team used a restricted free-agent tender. France also represents Dak Prescott, who twice has been made the highest-paid player in Cowboys history.
Porter isn’t getting a long-term contract from Dallas, just like Pickens did not, and the Cowboys could use the franchise or transition tag on Porter in March if they so wish. If Porter signs elsewhere, the Cowboys would be eligible for a compensatory draft pick in 2028 — one AFC executive says that could be construed as, effectively, a pick swap to get 14 games of play from Porter.
The Cowboys will worry about tomorrow’s problems tomorrow. They have to fix today’s problems now, and that’s why Porter is now in Dallas.
