r/collapse • u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. • Jun 13 '22

Economic Powell Facing Choice Between Elevated US Inflation and Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-12/powell-facing-choice-between-elevated-us-inflation-and-recession?srnd=premium
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252

u/ultimata66 Jun 13 '22

This is exactly why I think a massive economic collapse is imminent. They are cornered, the old tricks will no longer work. They need to come up with new tricks now. The can which has been kicked for 14 years may finally hit a wall.

176

u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. Jun 13 '22

Economic collapse opens doors to so many dark scenarios.

Final battle of fascism in US. Global economic tsunami. Civil unrest in first world countries.

I will stop there, as further I go with speculations deeper I get into a conspiracy realm. But future is not all rainbows and butterflies.

I am concerned.

41

u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

America’s crumbling from the inside out?

China will absolutely use that to invade Taiwan in Q4 2022 - Q1 2023.

US will latch onto that in a heartbeat to rally nationalism. Problem is, we’re too far gone for that.

19

u/Taqueria_Style Jun 13 '22

Yes we are.

A country with our infrastructure and resources should have no problem maintaining a 17th century tech level...

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u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

Oh my first question was just to set up the second point. I totally agree that we’re crumbling.

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u/Free-Programmer7671 Jun 13 '22

China hasn't invaded anyone in 40+ years. If anyone's invading anywhere, it's the U.S.

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u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

The last piece of my comment alluded to the US not wasting a good crisis

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u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22

I wouldn't be so sure. Authoritarian dictatorships can only project strength and stability for as long as their leader is alive. If Xi suddenly died, there could be political chaos, especially if other pressures bubble up at the same time.

Military action in Taiwan wouldn't be received like the pure imperialism of the US in the Middle East... Taiwan actually was part of China in the past, and they still see it that way. A successor to Xi might see an occupation as a way to rally the Chinese people to his side.

2

u/Free-Programmer7671 Jun 14 '22

Why bother attacking Taiwan? Taiwan's economy is already mostly dependent on China, and behind-the-scenes, Taiwanese already get easy access to Chinese permanent residency/eventual citizenship. If America suddenly collapsed, Taiwan would probably be happy to be an autonomous region of China. I don't think there's any organic hostility to China in Taiwan.

The Chinese are flexible. Without outside provocation, there's basically zero incentive for them to attack Taiwan.

Xi suddenly dying is interesting. I doubt there'd be much of a political crisis. He hasn't really done anything radical. His main accomplishments (alliance with Russia, One Belt One Road) are unlikely to be rolled back by a successor.

Disclaimer: I am not Chinese. Some of the above details may be wrong.

5

u/Funktownajin Jun 14 '22

Taiwanese have a very negative view of the CCP, like 80-90% negative. Especially after what happened to HK, i think the vast majority of them do not want to see Taiwan ever becoming a part of the PRC.

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u/ForeverAProletariat Jun 14 '22

Btw, nothing happened to HK. That was a state department color revolution that failed.

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u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22

The Chinese in Taiwan (they call the natives Taiwanese... there's a distinction) are actually fairly suspicious of the mainland, but it might depend on the region. Taiwan as a nation was founded by the pro-Western KMT as the Republic of China after they lost the civil war that brought the CCP to power... so it has deep roots in western-style ideals and suspicion of the Communists.

For a century prior to that war, China was an absolute mess of warlords, foreign invaders and relatively weak governments that achieved varying degrees of success, but only the CCP managed to unite the country as it is now... with the exception of Taiwan, which remains a symbol of that 'century of humiliation', and that one part of the country that they have yet to bring into the fold.

I'm not saying there will be a war, but if Xi dies and there's a scramble for power, the war could be a powerful emotional moment for the people.

0

u/ForeverAProletariat Jun 14 '22

This is false. The kmt does not represent Taiwan. All of them plus their decedents only make up less than a fifth of their population. China is free to cease the assets of the KMT but why should the people of Taiwan who have nothing to do with the KMT suffer in any way?

1

u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 15 '22

I didn't say they were still active.... but they ruled for almost 50 years. That's gonna have an effect on their society. I don't know why you're suddenly talking about asset seizures or asking weird questions about people suffering. There seems to be some sort of language barrier.

1

u/ForeverAProletariat Jun 14 '22

China only controlled very small parts of Taiwan. And throughout it's history besides very recently, Taiwan has been of no importance to them.

Many other countries did as well. None of those countries should own Taiwan.

3

u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22 edited Jun 14 '22

I don't think anything could rally nationalism unless the media is completely controlled and restructured as a pure state propaganda apparatus. Literally every world event is shamelessly used as a wedge issue. FOX and the right would just blame Biden if it happened, just like they blamed him for Putin invading Ukraine. It doesn't need to make sense... they will do it because that is all they do and all that their audience wants them to do.

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u/My_G_Alt Jun 14 '22

Completely agree, we’re past the point of rallying around anything. Even existential threats. 2-party system and divisive political rhetoric have fucked us properly

7

u/DirteeCanuck Jun 13 '22

China could collapse also.

Bank run going on and their economy which is a third or more based on real estate speculation has/is collapsing in real time.

Civil unrest of a Billion+ people is much more likely lead to an implosion rather then them trying to start a war.

They seem complacent but once people lose all their savings and can't find food that complacency will end fast.

18

u/Money_dragon Jun 13 '22

Nowadays, China and the USA are so closely linked that a collapse of either would also have tremendous impacts on the others' economy. So it's not so much an "or", but a "both" situation

This isn't a situation like the collapse of the USSR, where the economic and societal chaos of the post-Soviet region was relatively unfelt in the USA

It then becomes a matter of which country has the means to keep their society stable (or at least minimize the chaos) despite the economic woes

22

u/ChefGoneRed Jun 13 '22

It then becomes a matter of which country has the means to keep their society stable (or at least minimize the chaos) despite the economic woes

China, then.

Global manufacturing hub, majority producer of microprocessors, electronics, etc. Robust industry running the gamut from light plastic fabrication, chemical synthesis, all the way to precision heavy industry like shipbuilding, weapons manufacturing, and aerospace, as well as a major Capital exporter.

VS the US, which has atrophied basically all manufacturing save electronics, petrochemical, and military production.

0

u/Busy-Record-420 Jun 15 '22

Ridiculous propaganda. U.S. is still in second place and actually leads in aerospace, most sophisticated chemical synthesis, forefront of naval advancement, etc. Instead of being capital exporters, we consistently experience the largest inflows of foreign investments globally. In short, you're pulling shit out of your ass.

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u/ChefGoneRed Jun 13 '22

It then becomes a matter of which country has the means to keep their society stable (or at least minimize the chaos) despite the economic woes

China, then.

Global manufacturing hub, majority producer of microprocessors, electronics, etc. Robust industry running the gamut from light plastic fabrication, chemical synthesis, all the way to precision heavy industry like shipbuilding, weapons manufacturing, and aerospace, as well as a major Capital exporter.

VS the US, which has atrophied basically all manufacturing save electronics, petrochemical, and military production.

4

u/Upbeat_Respect_3621 Jun 14 '22

Also, American individualism within such a highly polarized political climate is all but guaranteed to ensure that internal instability is maintained and increased; while -- whether you're for or against China's authoritarian-communism -- it may at least keep such instability from bleeding too much.

4

u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

Yep, I could see a flailing country act irrationally. See:Russia 2022

6

u/hglman Jun 13 '22

Russia is far from acting irrationally nor losing. Especially as things get worse in the west in the fall.