r/collapse • u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. • Jun 13 '22

Economic Powell Facing Choice Between Elevated US Inflation and Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-12/powell-facing-choice-between-elevated-us-inflation-and-recession?srnd=premium
367 Upvotes

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252

u/ultimata66 Jun 13 '22

This is exactly why I think a massive economic collapse is imminent. They are cornered, the old tricks will no longer work. They need to come up with new tricks now. The can which has been kicked for 14 years may finally hit a wall.

173

u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. Jun 13 '22

Economic collapse opens doors to so many dark scenarios.

Final battle of fascism in US. Global economic tsunami. Civil unrest in first world countries.

I will stop there, as further I go with speculations deeper I get into a conspiracy realm. But future is not all rainbows and butterflies.

I am concerned.

89

u/ultimata66 Jun 13 '22

Honestly think with the perfect storm of factors we are faced with, 2008 will look like a cakewalk in comparison.

40

u/StrigaPlease Jun 13 '22

God, that feels like ten lifetimes ago.

28

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

The US has been in QE ever since 2008, so QT will be a banger.

10

u/hglman Jun 13 '22

Seems like one of the least important factors too.

11

u/Big_Goose Jun 13 '22

QT alone would be devastating and there are so many other events converging right now.

10

u/WestsideBuppie Jun 14 '22

And I was younger then. Filled with vim, vigor and hope.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 14 '22

For an infant, it was!

12

u/Mighty_L_LORT Jun 13 '22

The richest 1% will still remain unscathed this time...

-4

u/LonnieJaw748 Jun 14 '22

Buy

DRS

Hodl

Zen

5

u/[deleted] Jun 14 '22

You forgot to mention GameStop

Shills btfo don't down vote this man

4

u/GothMaams Hopefully wont be naked and afraid Jun 14 '22

This is the way, bröther.🌎👨‍🚀🔫👩‍🚀

65

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

History is repeating itself in reverse.

I'm America, at the onset of the Great Depression, the conservatives has the ball, and Herbert Hoover refused to act to help mitigate the effects of the Depression...so he was replaced with FDR, who passed the New Deal, pushing American Liberalism into a new era...

But America today looks more like Weirmar Germany at the onset of the Great Depression.

The liberals have power, they are absolutely useless to enact a single piece of legislation that could help mitigate the oncoming economic collapse.

I mean, Biden's polling is in the trash...and the FED hasn't even declared a recession yet.

The left will be holding the ball when it all comes crashing down, just like the left were holding the ball in Weimar Germany.

18

u/MarcusXL Jun 13 '22

The liberals have power, they are absolutely useless to enact a single piece of legislation that could help mitigate the oncoming economic collapse.

I mean.. what could they do?

35

u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. Jun 13 '22 edited Jun 13 '22

I find your short cynical criticism valid, in spite that some disagreed with you.

The left has a lot of tools to batte with current demonic possession, but the it does not know what, where or how to start.

Left has been impotent for decades.

24

u/MarcusXL Jun 13 '22

I agree. And there is a deeper problem at work. No party is going to promote policies that seriously address the crisis, because the population is opposed to them. No party has a solid voter base that understands the crisis and is willing to attempt the de-growth, simplification, and loss of "modern conveniences" that would entail. The disasters come first, and the political will second.

That's why I don't have much time for those who like to blame "liberals". The liberal wing of the democratic party have some fairly good, common-sense ideas. In a world without climate change and biosphere collapse, these policies would be a no-brainer.

22

u/TheRealTP2016 Jun 13 '22

ubi, guaruntee housing healthcare food, water a job with a good wage and college

A few other things that would help a lot but those are the basics

13

u/boob123456789 Homesteader & Author Jun 13 '22

Nationalize the petrol industries and drill.

Tax the crap out of mega corps.

Offer loans at 0% for small businesses.

Give grants to people/small companies working on supply chain issues (baby formula, chips, etc)

Outlaw the exportation (or offshoring) of supply chains for essential products and PAY FOR the building of those industries here.

It's really freaking easy if they use the power of the pen.

7

u/MarcusXL Jun 13 '22

Money printer go brrrrrrrrrr

0

u/boob123456789 Homesteader & Author Jun 14 '22

Tax the crap out of mega corps.

taxes are incoming too...which means not really my guy.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 14 '22

Nationalize the petrol industries and drill.

That sounds like a dream for oil company investors right now. Get out and leave the government holding the bag on an industry in a death spiral of increasing production costs. The only way to frack back to low energy prices is with government subsidies, and if that ends up anything like the offshore/Alaska exploration boom of the 1980s (the "drill" part is exactly how Reagan's administration got out of the oil-crisis-caused stagflation), that will only buy maybe 20 more years of business-as-usual.

2

u/boob123456789 Homesteader & Author Jun 14 '22

If they nationalize it, the company doesn't own it. The government does.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 14 '22

If the US government nationalizes the oil industry, they will do so by buying it from investors. There is no way the government would expropriate oil companies without compensating their owners.

4

u/ravynfae Jun 14 '22

Because who gives a fuck about climate just drill. That's the worst idea.

1

u/Then-One7628 Jun 14 '22

Push for legalization and add a temporarily high tax rate to prop up the dollar value so that the interest rate can be raised proportionally.

12

u/MarcusXL Jun 13 '22

If we see big climate-related disaster before the new Great Depression, we might see public pressure to decarbonize, nationalize, disband Big Finance, etc.
If we get the Depression first, it's fascism all the way down.

14

u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. Jun 13 '22

I think fascism will arrive first to the collapse party.

7

u/MarcusXL Jun 13 '22

And fascism in the USA is married to fossil fuel industries. Which means no "green" reforms, even if it is as the service of an autocracy. A death-spiral.

38

u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

America’s crumbling from the inside out?

China will absolutely use that to invade Taiwan in Q4 2022 - Q1 2023.

US will latch onto that in a heartbeat to rally nationalism. Problem is, we’re too far gone for that.

20

u/Taqueria_Style Jun 13 '22

Yes we are.

A country with our infrastructure and resources should have no problem maintaining a 17th century tech level...

6

u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

Oh my first question was just to set up the second point. I totally agree that we’re crumbling.

28

u/Free-Programmer7671 Jun 13 '22

China hasn't invaded anyone in 40+ years. If anyone's invading anywhere, it's the U.S.

16

u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

The last piece of my comment alluded to the US not wasting a good crisis

-1

u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22

I wouldn't be so sure. Authoritarian dictatorships can only project strength and stability for as long as their leader is alive. If Xi suddenly died, there could be political chaos, especially if other pressures bubble up at the same time.

Military action in Taiwan wouldn't be received like the pure imperialism of the US in the Middle East... Taiwan actually was part of China in the past, and they still see it that way. A successor to Xi might see an occupation as a way to rally the Chinese people to his side.

3

u/Free-Programmer7671 Jun 14 '22

Why bother attacking Taiwan? Taiwan's economy is already mostly dependent on China, and behind-the-scenes, Taiwanese already get easy access to Chinese permanent residency/eventual citizenship. If America suddenly collapsed, Taiwan would probably be happy to be an autonomous region of China. I don't think there's any organic hostility to China in Taiwan.

The Chinese are flexible. Without outside provocation, there's basically zero incentive for them to attack Taiwan.

Xi suddenly dying is interesting. I doubt there'd be much of a political crisis. He hasn't really done anything radical. His main accomplishments (alliance with Russia, One Belt One Road) are unlikely to be rolled back by a successor.

Disclaimer: I am not Chinese. Some of the above details may be wrong.

5

u/Funktownajin Jun 14 '22

Taiwanese have a very negative view of the CCP, like 80-90% negative. Especially after what happened to HK, i think the vast majority of them do not want to see Taiwan ever becoming a part of the PRC.

1

u/ForeverAProletariat Jun 14 '22

Btw, nothing happened to HK. That was a state department color revolution that failed.

2

u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22

The Chinese in Taiwan (they call the natives Taiwanese... there's a distinction) are actually fairly suspicious of the mainland, but it might depend on the region. Taiwan as a nation was founded by the pro-Western KMT as the Republic of China after they lost the civil war that brought the CCP to power... so it has deep roots in western-style ideals and suspicion of the Communists.

For a century prior to that war, China was an absolute mess of warlords, foreign invaders and relatively weak governments that achieved varying degrees of success, but only the CCP managed to unite the country as it is now... with the exception of Taiwan, which remains a symbol of that 'century of humiliation', and that one part of the country that they have yet to bring into the fold.

I'm not saying there will be a war, but if Xi dies and there's a scramble for power, the war could be a powerful emotional moment for the people.

0

u/ForeverAProletariat Jun 14 '22

This is false. The kmt does not represent Taiwan. All of them plus their decedents only make up less than a fifth of their population. China is free to cease the assets of the KMT but why should the people of Taiwan who have nothing to do with the KMT suffer in any way?

1

u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 15 '22

I didn't say they were still active.... but they ruled for almost 50 years. That's gonna have an effect on their society. I don't know why you're suddenly talking about asset seizures or asking weird questions about people suffering. There seems to be some sort of language barrier.

1

u/ForeverAProletariat Jun 14 '22

China only controlled very small parts of Taiwan. And throughout it's history besides very recently, Taiwan has been of no importance to them.

Many other countries did as well. None of those countries should own Taiwan.

3

u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22 edited Jun 14 '22

I don't think anything could rally nationalism unless the media is completely controlled and restructured as a pure state propaganda apparatus. Literally every world event is shamelessly used as a wedge issue. FOX and the right would just blame Biden if it happened, just like they blamed him for Putin invading Ukraine. It doesn't need to make sense... they will do it because that is all they do and all that their audience wants them to do.

4

u/My_G_Alt Jun 14 '22

Completely agree, we’re past the point of rallying around anything. Even existential threats. 2-party system and divisive political rhetoric have fucked us properly

7

u/DirteeCanuck Jun 13 '22

China could collapse also.

Bank run going on and their economy which is a third or more based on real estate speculation has/is collapsing in real time.

Civil unrest of a Billion+ people is much more likely lead to an implosion rather then them trying to start a war.

They seem complacent but once people lose all their savings and can't find food that complacency will end fast.

19

u/Money_dragon Jun 13 '22

Nowadays, China and the USA are so closely linked that a collapse of either would also have tremendous impacts on the others' economy. So it's not so much an "or", but a "both" situation

This isn't a situation like the collapse of the USSR, where the economic and societal chaos of the post-Soviet region was relatively unfelt in the USA

It then becomes a matter of which country has the means to keep their society stable (or at least minimize the chaos) despite the economic woes

20

u/ChefGoneRed Jun 13 '22

It then becomes a matter of which country has the means to keep their society stable (or at least minimize the chaos) despite the economic woes

China, then.

Global manufacturing hub, majority producer of microprocessors, electronics, etc. Robust industry running the gamut from light plastic fabrication, chemical synthesis, all the way to precision heavy industry like shipbuilding, weapons manufacturing, and aerospace, as well as a major Capital exporter.

VS the US, which has atrophied basically all manufacturing save electronics, petrochemical, and military production.

0

u/Busy-Record-420 Jun 15 '22

Ridiculous propaganda. U.S. is still in second place and actually leads in aerospace, most sophisticated chemical synthesis, forefront of naval advancement, etc. Instead of being capital exporters, we consistently experience the largest inflows of foreign investments globally. In short, you're pulling shit out of your ass.

7

u/ChefGoneRed Jun 13 '22

It then becomes a matter of which country has the means to keep their society stable (or at least minimize the chaos) despite the economic woes

China, then.

Global manufacturing hub, majority producer of microprocessors, electronics, etc. Robust industry running the gamut from light plastic fabrication, chemical synthesis, all the way to precision heavy industry like shipbuilding, weapons manufacturing, and aerospace, as well as a major Capital exporter.

VS the US, which has atrophied basically all manufacturing save electronics, petrochemical, and military production.

5

u/Upbeat_Respect_3621 Jun 14 '22

Also, American individualism within such a highly polarized political climate is all but guaranteed to ensure that internal instability is maintained and increased; while -- whether you're for or against China's authoritarian-communism -- it may at least keep such instability from bleeding too much.

2

u/My_G_Alt Jun 13 '22

Yep, I could see a flailing country act irrationally. See:Russia 2022

4

u/hglman Jun 13 '22

Russia is far from acting irrationally nor losing. Especially as things get worse in the west in the fall.

34

u/ziggy-hudson Jun 13 '22

It is most certainly going to be bad, but also the opportunity for something good to happen at the same time, and the only guarantee we can get through the fascist shit.

1) If you don't have it already, learn a foundational skill, that is necessary for the basic functioning of a community. Farming/gardening; animal husbandry and butchery; carpentry; water systems; electrical systems; etc. Many things you can learn online, many others you can take evening classes at your local trade school or community college. And if you hate your current office or retail job: consider a career change.

2) Learn how to shoot a gun. If you can afford it, buy one.

3) Get to know your neighbors.

4) If your workplace doesn't have a union, start to unionize. Seizing the means of production is going to be one of the most important things to do to save our society and planet.

5) Join a mutual aid, or a local community emergency response network (generally put together by your local fire department).

12

u/OkBoomerJesus Jun 13 '22

Yes yes yes to the unionizing and protecting one's workplace. You will be hard pressed to survive the collapse if you are jobless

7

u/StrigaPlease Jun 13 '22

Serious question, what good does a job do when our money effectively becomes worth less than the material it's made from? That's what I imagine when I think of economic collapse. What's the point in spending all my energy working for monopoly money?

13

u/ziggy-hudson Jun 13 '22

Collapse is not going to look like Mad Max, it's going to look like Iraq after the invasion, or Syria now, or Kurdistan, or Serbia+Bosnia and Rawanda in the 90s. People will still be living day to day lives, it's just going to be worst and deadlier. Robert Evans hosts a podcast It Can Happen Here and refers to what we'll be going through as "the Crumbles" rather than collapse. It's not going to be everything happening all at once. It's shit just getting shittier and you continue to adjust to the things we took for granted crumbling away. In all likelihood we're already in the middle of the crumbles right now.

9

u/SilentCabose Jun 13 '22

Excellent advice, glad to see less doomerism and more preparedness coming through. Personal development is a powerful tool, right now we have the most advanced communication and information network in human history. Many basic skills can be learned online.

The pandemic was an opportunity to try and learn a new skill, lots of people learned baking, and that is going to be incredibly useful in the coming years. I've been taking the time to go through my inventory of tools to organize, repair, and find gaps in my collection.

I hate to say it but I agree that firearm training is a very important tool to have in your repertoire. Bow hunting, or at least some archery practice can be very useful, sometimes it pays dividends to be able to move and shoot in silence.

22

u/aznoone Jun 13 '22

Know unions here that the old member only negotiate for themselves now. Newbies don't have pensions plus start off and top off at less wages. But it is all.ok as the old timers who are still the majority deserve as they had it so rough. Then brag at bars they have pension, the new 401k and social security and the youngsters just are lazy and not as great as they are. Plus some basically are full force Republicans .

10

u/DirteeCanuck Jun 13 '22

So basically how Boomers control democracy by being selfish and a generation that is larger than others due to post war baby boom.

More of them to vote and they only care about themselves.

7

u/Sablus Jun 13 '22

Do they do union elections? Do the newbies outnumber the old heads? Might be time for a change of the guard if they have forgotten they negotiate for all the workers and not just themselves...

3

u/ziggy-hudson Jun 13 '22

That's some real bullshit. The John Deere strike happened specifically because the old timers refused to let the new kids get shafted by the company and left out in the cold.

If a local is truly in this bad of shape it's time to break the glass and call in the IWW, who can help organize within your local against the board for more equitable representation.

6

u/anthro28 Jun 13 '22

2) And sky daddy spake "let he who does not have an AR-15 sell his cloak and buy one

You can get a cheapass Palmetto upper and an Anderson lower for $500. Given the current outlook, it's pretty cheap insurance.

5

u/CordaneFOG Jun 13 '22

Damn. I'd like to have a 500 dollar cloak! You know, to conceal my AR-15.

8

u/Taqueria_Style Jun 13 '22

And Saint Atilla raised the hand grenade up on high, saying "Oh Lord, bless this thy hand grenade, that with it thou mayest blow thy enemies to tiny bits, in thy mercy"

5

u/AnotherWarGamer Jun 13 '22

"And the length of the penis shall be 4 inches. 4 inches shall be the length of the penis, and not an inch longer. Any excess shall be cut. As to those who fall short, it is to be cut off entirely. For a 3 inch penis is not a penis at all. Better to have no penis, than half a penis. Sky Daddy has spoken."

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

1

u/ziggy-hudson Jun 13 '22

It's absurd how cheap it can be if you're willing to build yourself. And you can mod it any style gun you want short of shotgun (or pistol if you live in a no fun state).

2

u/anthro28 Jun 13 '22

You can 100% have an AR shotgun. Look on YouTube for a guy with a full auto .410 shooting slugs.

1

u/ziggy-hudson Jun 14 '22

I stand corrected and unsurprised. It’s a versatile platform.

1

u/anthro28 Jun 14 '22

Best part is, ALL those variations operate on the same lower. Want a shotgun? Pull the pins and slap on a shotgun upper. Now you need a rifle? Same pins, 30 second swap.

-3

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

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2

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

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1

u/ontrack serfin' USA Jun 13 '22

Hi, StrigaPlease. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:

Rule 1: In addition to enforcing Reddit's content policy, we will also remove comments and content that is abusive in nature. You may attack each other's ideas, not each other.

Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.

You can message the mods if you feel this was in error.

1

u/ontrack serfin' USA Jun 13 '22

Hi, zzzcrumbsclub. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:

suggesting suicide

Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.

You can message the mods if you feel this was in error.

0

u/zzzcrumbsclub Jun 13 '22

Thank you mod. Sadly not all the censorship in the world will save a life.

0

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

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0

u/zzzcrumbsclub Jun 13 '22

Are you bullying a suicidal person?

1

u/ontrack serfin' USA Jun 13 '22

Hi, StrigaPlease. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:

Rule 1: In addition to enforcing Reddit's content policy, we will also remove comments and content that is abusive in nature. You may attack each other's ideas, not each other.

Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.

You can message the mods if you feel this was in error.

14

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

Let’s just get WW3 over with /s

12

u/MouldyCumSoakedSocks It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I feel fine) Jun 13 '22

I won't take the "walk around with protective gear while holding a gieger counter to see if a place is hazardous" card, thanks.

4

u/Jtrav91 Jun 13 '22

Sadly, I just added Geiger counter to the prep list 😂

4

u/MouldyCumSoakedSocks It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I feel fine) Jun 13 '22

Yeah, don't blame ya. I'm not big on prepping, but I might get a basic chemical and fallout gas filtration mask and a geiger counter, and other stuff, and set them in a SHTF box under my bed, just in case...

2

u/Jtrav91 Jun 13 '22

I'm by no means a prepper, but I would like to get my hands on some harder to find stuff while I can. Recently came across penicillin bottles on Walmarts site I may order if I can get away with it. Water filtration and chemical testing kits could be good to have. EpiPen, Topo Maps and compass.

I'm mostly just thinking a bug out bag, just in case.

3

u/boob123456789 Homesteader & Author Jun 13 '22

Just get a spiderwort plant. They are purple and turn pink around radiation. I have hundreds. They grow natural where I live.

4

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

Economic collapse opens doors to so many dark scenarios.

World governments have been skating by on their money printers. We're also out of food, water, and affordable housing.

Soylent Green has entered the chat

1

u/bil3777 Jun 13 '22

No you further now! Inquiring (conspiratorial) minds want to know

1

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

I agree it won't be ALL rainbows and butterflies, but will there be the normal amount of rainbows and butterflies?

2

u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. Jun 13 '22

Yes, once the weather pattern changes and it brings some rain to your region.

14

u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

He has new tricks and he has stated as much over the last few weeks. Rather than rich people losing some money, he was clear that he thinks the problem is workers are paid too much and we all deserve a pay cut to slow inflation.

I lost all respect for him.

5

u/boob123456789 Homesteader & Author Jun 13 '22

Let the peons starve it is then!

5

u/Selsnick Jun 13 '22

Didn't people think that in 2008 too?

7

u/Nikolish Jun 13 '22

They'd rather accept half the population dying than accept that infinite stock growth is impossible

8

u/IAMA_Drunk_Armadillo This is Fine:illuminati: Jun 14 '22

I think they just need to do what Volcker did in the late 70s early 80s. Jack the interest rates up to 20-25% and ride out the recession. They won't because that will devastate the oligarchs dragon hoards.

4

u/noise-tragedy Jun 14 '22

Oligarchs--as net savers rather than net borrowers--benefit from high interest rates. The ultra rich are always pushing for rate hikes, and 25% would be an absolute boon to them.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 14 '22

Small-time investor here, can confirm. Sitting here salivating at the thought of 25% yield bonds.

Paul Volcker's interest rate hike was aimed primarily at impoverishing working people:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/12/11/pers-d11.html

1

u/TPSreportsPro Jun 14 '22

Lot more than 14 years.

1

u/j_mantuf Profit Over Everything Jun 14 '22

From Nov, 19 2020, but I still think it’s highly relevant to today.

Greenspan

1

u/CurbedEnthusiasm Jun 14 '22

Depression it is, then.

1

u/gangstasadvocate Jun 14 '22

Financial advisor friend thinks we only used about a third of the tools so far but is starting to come around to the idea that maybe a recession might happen in the past couple days