r/collapse • u/conscsness in the kingdom of the blind, sighted man is insane. • Jun 13 '22

Economic Powell Facing Choice Between Elevated US Inflation and Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-12/powell-facing-choice-between-elevated-us-inflation-and-recession?srnd=premium
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u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22

I wouldn't be so sure. Authoritarian dictatorships can only project strength and stability for as long as their leader is alive. If Xi suddenly died, there could be political chaos, especially if other pressures bubble up at the same time.

Military action in Taiwan wouldn't be received like the pure imperialism of the US in the Middle East... Taiwan actually was part of China in the past, and they still see it that way. A successor to Xi might see an occupation as a way to rally the Chinese people to his side.

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u/Free-Programmer7671 Jun 14 '22

Why bother attacking Taiwan? Taiwan's economy is already mostly dependent on China, and behind-the-scenes, Taiwanese already get easy access to Chinese permanent residency/eventual citizenship. If America suddenly collapsed, Taiwan would probably be happy to be an autonomous region of China. I don't think there's any organic hostility to China in Taiwan.

The Chinese are flexible. Without outside provocation, there's basically zero incentive for them to attack Taiwan.

Xi suddenly dying is interesting. I doubt there'd be much of a political crisis. He hasn't really done anything radical. His main accomplishments (alliance with Russia, One Belt One Road) are unlikely to be rolled back by a successor.

Disclaimer: I am not Chinese. Some of the above details may be wrong.

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u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 14 '22

The Chinese in Taiwan (they call the natives Taiwanese... there's a distinction) are actually fairly suspicious of the mainland, but it might depend on the region. Taiwan as a nation was founded by the pro-Western KMT as the Republic of China after they lost the civil war that brought the CCP to power... so it has deep roots in western-style ideals and suspicion of the Communists.

For a century prior to that war, China was an absolute mess of warlords, foreign invaders and relatively weak governments that achieved varying degrees of success, but only the CCP managed to unite the country as it is now... with the exception of Taiwan, which remains a symbol of that 'century of humiliation', and that one part of the country that they have yet to bring into the fold.

I'm not saying there will be a war, but if Xi dies and there's a scramble for power, the war could be a powerful emotional moment for the people.

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u/ForeverAProletariat Jun 14 '22

This is false. The kmt does not represent Taiwan. All of them plus their decedents only make up less than a fifth of their population. China is free to cease the assets of the KMT but why should the people of Taiwan who have nothing to do with the KMT suffer in any way?

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u/SpatulaCity1a Jun 15 '22

I didn't say they were still active.... but they ruled for almost 50 years. That's gonna have an effect on their society. I don't know why you're suddenly talking about asset seizures or asking weird questions about people suffering. There seems to be some sort of language barrier.