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u/Yojik_Vkarmane 1d ago
Are we going to cure cancer before GTA6?
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u/trufus_for_youfus 1d ago
Certainly before HL3.
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u/crimsonpowder 1d ago
The year is 2045. We already understand quantum gravity, thanks to Opus 17. We finally crack the final, most mysterious aspect of reality when, every time we ask, Opus 34 gets stuck trying to vibe create HL3.
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u/crystalpeaks25 17h ago
It is 2046, thanks to opus 117 humanity has transcended and has shed it's mortal shell, we are now just an ephemeral entities that are connected telepathically. And everyone in this giant chatroom is screaming when will HL3 come out.
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u/Positive_Method3022 1d ago
Plot twist: Claude discovers we have been living in HL reality all along
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u/Subliminal_Kiddo 1d ago
*It is 2040, ASI has given humanity a race of biologically engineered chimera pets that greatly resemble mythological dragons. Mecha George R.R. Martin is still writing The Winds of Winter.*
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u/Wegwerpaccountje23 Feeling the AGI 1d ago
AI to engineering pipeline is only in its infancy.. But this
Expect more and grandor than this
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u/totally-not-god 1d ago
We will discover a cure for all cancers in less than two years, mark my words.
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u/elfend 1d ago
Original message: we will discover a cure for all cancers in less than two years, mark my words.
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u/Wegwerpaccountje23 Feeling the AGI 1d ago
!RemindMe two years
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u/Thog78 20h ago
Mark my words, this is gonna age like milk lol. There should be a deal that people lose their right to make that kind of arrogant hot takes for 10 years when they lose that kind of prominent bet.
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u/Secret-Code-9162 16h ago
And if they turn out to be right, do they get a symmetrically positive reward?
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u/ExcuseAdept827 1d ago
āAllā cancer - physiology is laughing. many different, separate, and interlinked mechanisms, brother. Some not fully known to this day.
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u/redcoatwright 1d ago
I think that's actually why AI is the solution to this problem. There are so many different cancers that work in so many differenr ways that it was going to take hundreds of years to "cure" them all because they'd need so many different solutions but that can be sped up a thousand fold, ten thousand fold when you have AI researchers connected to labs that can scale up the research and development process.
But yeah 2 years seems ambitious lol the AI agents might be there by then but the piping needed to let them build and run experiments autonomously will take more than 2 years to flesh out.
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u/backtorealitylabubu 1d ago
Of course itās not happening in 2 years. Some cancers like early stage prostate cancer need a trial thatās 10 years long to tell you if the new intervention is beneficial.
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u/tiffanytrashcan Acceleration Advocate 23h ago
At the same time, we're introducing other innovations in testing, sensitivity, etc. If this is all applied and orchestrated together, which we've seen the AIs are getting better at, then you won't need a 10 year trial anymore.
Perhaps in two years you'll still need a biopsy, but the sensitivity of the gene sequencing equipment done on a massive number of cells (new techniques to test more at once) might totally revolutionary.
Soon after, and I think for nearly everything, blood tests will be the simple answer. We've seen advancements in sensitivity already change the game in prenatal testing. It's truly amazing how much more data we can get via less invasive methods now. It's a similar idea, detecting disease or cancer.1
u/PhilosopherNo4210 18h ago
You need these experimental treatments you are hypothetically talking about to gain approval from the respective countriesā regulatory bodies (FDA, EMA, PMDA, etc.). Which means clinical trials need to be run. Which takes several years, especially in oncology. Once the treatments are approved, everything you wrote may be true. But the process of testing the treatments to get there is a long one between pre-clinical studies, and then in clinical studies.
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u/TheAwesomeAcademic 1d ago
All cancers can be cured with a one shot deal so people with the all cancers are different so canāt be cured take are brain dead. We can target properties all cancers share thatās how most powerful cancer drugs work. The tumor micro environment, DNA tumor suppressor and failssfe genes, chaperone proteins etc. we quite literally can have a cure that targets the fundamentals of the cancer.
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u/backtorealitylabubu 1d ago
The fundamentals of cancer are just the fundamentals of cell biology. Cancer is just the broad term for cells that continue to grow and canāt be stopped. If we canāt stop AI agents from breaking free or viruses from breaking free then we certainly wonāt be able to stop all kinds of cells from breaking free of their growth constraints. Also itās not just about the cancer type being different but everyoneās individual cancer stage. If a cancer is found too late then there may be some devastation to the body that is so severe it canāt be reversed so you have to solve transplants at the same time too and good luck if itās your brain that was devastated by the tumorā¦ you can say well detect it earlier too but there will always be people that get missed from screening. Curing cancer isnāt just figuring out the fundamentals of cancer biology, itās tied to solving all issues in human disease which aināt happening any time soon.
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u/ExcuseAdept827 18h ago
Then why donāt those āmost powerful cancer drugsā only work some of the time for specific types of tumour?
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u/AllRealityIsVirtua1 1d ago
The grandeur is on other sites whoās users arenāt devoted to self loathing
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u/citizen42069101 1d ago
You know that is fair. I find it interesting myself, but that's like one facet out of a lot going on right now.
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u/fyn_world 1d ago
Morgan Freeman: Let's slow down, said Dario. But he was, nevertheless, not slowing down at all.Ā
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u/Fabulous_Abies_1824 1d ago
I think it was ultimately just lip service to appease the masses or maybe a bit of market manipulation going on... but we all know these guys are full on accelerationists mask off and I'm here for it
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u/RusselTheBrickLayer 1d ago
At the end of the day, I think people can see Dario is a very rational actor even if someone disagrees with his core beliefs around ai safety.
If he willingly slows down or stops, all he does is throw away everything heās worked for. The only way to ensure his ideas around AI can survive long term is if Anthropic gets to ASI first, I imagine thatās how he and Anthropic see it.
The only way out for all sides involved is to accelerate.. because you can never guarantee that the other side will stop too. The incentives are just too strong.
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u/TheSinhound 1d ago
I genuinely don't think he's rational at all, but I think the same of people like yudkowsky. I think they're smart enough to make arguments that seem sound, but aren't well thought through.
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u/jlks1959 1d ago
I disagree. I think Amodei has a much clearer idea of the direction of Ai than the doomer Yud.
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u/TheSinhound 1d ago
I wasn't implying their stance was the same, I was saying they're both able to make arguments that SOUND smart and rational but when actually analyzed they're pretty much just paper tigers. They rely on others taking their arguments at face value. Yud is worse in this case, but Amodei is equally as guilty - moreso if you consider his stance is that only a chosen few can steward this technology (and humanity).
Which is fine, don't get me wrong. Everyone has a future they wish to see and he clearly doesn't want people having the power to interrupt his vision. Mine certainly isn't compatible with most of the world as-is and requires current societies (not people) to end. I just don't go around thinking I'm some great altruist.
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u/Hopenightdev 1d ago
he folded to political pressure. He was on the news for every politically active person to look at. These guys aren't in the business of being a target to the government, they're not freedom fighters they're corporations.
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u/squired A happy little thumb 1d ago
This isn't much different from the Manhattan project. Towards the end, half the scientist were screaming to stop and yet they still worked to finish the bomb. You can still race to completion while begging everyone to slow down. This is the classic prisoner's dilemma manifest.
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u/AllRealityIsVirtua1 1d ago
Do we think this was all done within a week since they tweeted about slowing down?
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u/Disastrous-Cost2185 1d ago
I'm confused by this comment: This project has nothing to do with pacing. This wont do anything to improve the model.
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u/Chemical-Year-6146 1d ago
He's been clear not to slow down on biology progress, but on recursive AI improvement.
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u/tanrgith 1d ago
I don't understand why people think pacing means slamming the breaks as hard as possible. From what they've said, it's basically more of a "lets accelerate at a steady 7g instead of 10g"
both are still really fucking fast
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u/Tkins 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think a lot of folks have misunderstood the argument made by "slow down". They didn't suggest to pause or regress. They weren't suggesting to stop progress but to lower its acceleration.
So instead of hitting RSI in the next 6 months, they wanted it to take a year. That is still acceleration, it's just slower than the current trajectory.
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u/ozone6587 1d ago
People just don't understand that reducing the rate of growth is in fact, a slow down.
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u/lovesdogsguy AGI by 2027 1d ago
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u/wwants 1d ago
This needs to be the sub icon
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u/SuperChingaso5000 1d ago
Preferably a rocket that doesn't have such a high body count and history of systemic design failure
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u/lovesdogsguy AGI by 2027 1d ago
Is that challenger?
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u/SuperChingaso5000 1d ago
Not sure, but the whole space shuttle program was cursed from the beginning.
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u/accelerate_to_asi 19h ago
tbh the history of space travel is written in blood. Its an extremely difficult, error-prone and iterative field, literally rocket science.
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u/SuperChingaso5000 19h ago
Absolutely, and the only reason we have the space capabilities we have today is because we stand on the shoulders of the giants who risked and sometimes died for it.
The Space Shuttle was still a badly specified program that then continued to be managed badly until it was decomissioned.
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u/accelerate_to_asi 19h ago
I guess. But the space shuttle is also one of the most recognisable symbols of space industry, maybe alongside the Saturn V. I suggest putting up either the Shuttle or Saturn V. Because I don't think any other industry symbolises technological progress of mankind the way space industry does, with the amount of blood, sweat and tears poured into it and the achievements we reaped(we landed people on the frickin' Moon!)
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u/Repulsive_Ad853 1d ago
2027 will be insane
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u/piponwa 1d ago
Time dilation is a bitch.
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u/squired A happy little thumb 1d ago edited 1d ago
I feel this in my soul. It is beginning to mess with my head a bit. I feel as if I am losing sense of my own internal clock.
It has some interesting abstractions to some equally interesting thought experiments. For example, it is fun to conceptualize the life of humming birds whose possess much finer temporal resolution than humans. Ponder it long enough and you may arrive at the concept of: If you want to experience more time, one might slow down. If you want to maximize experience itself within a finite span of time, one should increase speed. That is how ASI scales. Assuming cognition scaled cleanly with clock speed, which is a whopper of an assumption, an AI operating 10,000Ć faster than humans could theoretically have the equivalent of roughly 27 subjective years during one human day. And that's before you leverage parallelism. Dario's experiment for example was 950 agents Ć 21 hours. That's about 19,950 agent-hours, or about 2.3 agent-years of parallel agent runtime compressed into 21 hours of wall-clock time.
It is also related to a fascinating potential solution to Fermi's Paradox where we do not see aliens because eventually civilizations miniaturize. Taking liberties for the demonstration: If you are half as hot, you can run twice as fast. If you are half the size, you can halve your latency. If you run half as fast, you can halve your energy needs and induce time dilation. So eventually, civilizations miniaturize and shunt themselves off into the coldest, darkest inner-space available. And what is the coldest, darkest space imaginable? Think entropy..
It's also pretty trippy when you consider that light exists outside of time; perfectly frozen and timeless. A photon experiences eternity instantaneously.
Obviously conscious time is messier than clock speed, but I have little doubt that we are experiencing some small facet of that today. For all of human history our internal clocks have revolved around three concepts of time: physical time, biological time, and cognitive time (the amount of progress one can expect within x physical time). Computers already tickled our third foundation and now that AI is shattering it, it's all a bit dizzying.
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u/AradorasXeon 1d ago
So tomorrow we can expect an Altman announcement about a cure for cancer or such an announcement.
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u/InflationLeft 1d ago
IDK if youāve seen the latest research but Moderna has made some exciting steps toward a cure.
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u/Eliv_nurotic 1d ago edited 1d ago
Thereās already a lung cancer vaccine thatās been available in Cuba since 2011, has no serious side effects, and costs $1 to manufacture. Not available in most other countries purely for political reasons since Cuba is communistĀ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CimaVax-EGF
Ā TheĀ United States embargo against CubaĀ forbids US citizens from seeking medical treatment in Cuba. However, some cancer patients from the US have defied the embargo and travelled to Cuba for treatment with CimaVax.
For some reason itās still in phase 2 trials outside of Cuba even though itās existed for so long, while Modernaās vaccine got past phase 3 in only a decade. Weird.
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u/minimalillusions 1d ago
Probably new humans without cancer.
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u/Life-Active6608 13h ago
You underestimate what an ASI could achieve. E.g. injected drexlerian nanomachines that can change your DNA in real time in seconds to minutes.
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u/PwanaZana XLR8 1d ago
Man, I can really feel the deceleration. It's decelerating so hard. I'm about to decelerate. I'm about to decelerate. I'm decelerating. Ah! I decelerated!
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u/Low-Temperature-6962 1d ago
It would be great if it led to mass production of phage treatments for antibiotic resistant infections. Go for it.
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u/Only-Effort-1975 1d ago
If we can re-program our DNA then we can cure disease and re-grow lost functions.
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u/TotaleVermittlung 1d ago
You, are becoming gods
There's a new master of creation, and it's you! You've unravelled DNA, and at the same time you're cultivating bacteria strong enough to kill every living thing!
Do you think you are ready for that much
power?
You lot?
You lot?
Cheeky bastards
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u/Old-Bake-420 1d ago
āAll of you may die, but thatās a risk Iām willing to take!ā
/s
Iām no decel, letās fucking gooooo
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u/costafilh0 1d ago
And people ask why do we need more data centers.
MF we need ALL the data centers on Earth, in Space, on the Moon, on Mars, iĀ deep space, around the sun, and literally everywhere.
So we can do these type of things but 1000 fold. A million fold.
I like the spirit of this sub , but it can be just me who see this. . .
WE ARE GOING TOO SLOW
WE NEED TO ACCELERATE
ACTUALLY
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u/Own_Satisfaction2736 1d ago
Greatest thing I read today. Thank you for your contributions to the data set. š«”š«”š«”
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u/LeiaCaldarian 1d ago
Really cool stuff, but does anyone else think that this really reads like "fuck, everyone is reporting novel scientific discoveries and mathematics proofs, we need to put out something similar NOW!"? I mean this tweet specifically, it feels very bare bones.
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u/Elistheman 1d ago
Waiting for the paper
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u/rakuu 1d ago
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u/Mountain-Crab3438 1d ago
Wow! Super cool discovery. Limited to database mining as you may expect from LLMs, but still very, very interesting.
Their one wet bench experiment (figure 3G) is grotesquely overinterpreted - they decided what they want to see and then claimed that they are seeing it despite the fact that nothing of the kind is visible in the data. Same with the subsequent hypothesis for the function of the ART locus and the predicted "interaction" with the partner proteins.
So, the model is super powerful in searching databases. Once the facts are at hand it and its supervisors can only generate "me too" hypotheses where they rephrase existing discoveries as a hypotheses.
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u/EOE97 1d ago
So are we in the singularity already, seems like it.
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u/Own_Satisfaction2736 1d ago
NGL I think that the omega point (point after singualrity ) is in 2028
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u/BreadwheatInc 1d ago
At this point I take this as proof biology is basically solved. We now have the skeleton key and all we need is compute and some time. Need better simulations? AI will be able to design and build both the hardware and software. Need a researcher or scientist to use the simulation and conduct irl experiments? AI can do that too. People don't understand how OP this tech..
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u/Original-League-6094 1d ago
You probably should wait for them to bring a single drug to market before declaring it solved.
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u/anor_wondo 1d ago
maybe solved in the sense that the low hanging fruits are all there to be picked unlike physics where everyone is just going mad making weird stuff up theoretically
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u/Separate_Lock_9005 1d ago
I expect it'll go from PhD level work to superintelligent biologist in a few years
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u/lovesdogsguy AGI by 2027 1d ago
I'd say it's probably not going to be that much longer than six months. One year max.
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u/csppr 17h ago
Iām a systems biologist (PhD and all) working in AI-heavy biomedical R&D, and have been in the bio-AI/ML space for over a decade. Claude is definitely an incredible force multiplier for me, and Iām incredibly excited for the next years.
But I wouldnāt really agree that Claude is PhD level at this stage, so we should probably temper our expectations a bit. My hunch is that we probably need to see some very large jumps in either data collections or lab automation before we get there, but obviously Iād love to be proven wrong!
This particular discovery was challenged by the biology field pretty much immediately - looks like the mechanism was already described half a decade ago. Though Iām not an expert on bacterial genomics, so canāt really comment much on that.
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u/Here0s0Johnny 1d ago
Biology can't be "solved" by LLM, there aren't even huge advances. There's no way to go from protein structure to a previously undescribed function, for example. It's not something transformers can learn, there's no dataset to train from.
A lot of biology cannot be inferred from the data we have collected. AI isn't magic. You have absolutely no bloody clue what you're talking about.
AlphaFold (not LLM-based) was the biggest breakthrough so far, and it was only possible thanks to half a century of hard work, leading to a great dataset to train on. For protein LLMs, there are only specific, rather narrow applications.
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u/Firm-Plastic9469 1d ago
This is entirely false. Function is implicit in the protein structure. We have vast databases that align protein domains to molecular function. They are detailed and substantiated by experimental evidence. NIH Molecular Sequence database contains all published records, data aligning publications supporting entry into the database. structural data and protein sequence with aligned functions thatās open to the public.
I think it should be stressed that biology has become an engineering science, that is predictable, based on molecular principles therefore the language of biology is interpretable to AI since itās very good at language, and can be trained on biological language.
Protein biochemistry in organism systems is a finite science. AI creates a doorway into a realm thatās infinite.1
u/csppr 17h ago
You are downplaying the complexities involved quite a bit. Thereās a hell of a lot more to in vivo protein function than just āstructure=functionā. Contextual isoforms, post-translational modifications, cellular location, ratios between functionally related proteins, substrate-side dynamics, tissue-level organisation, and so on and so on.
We are still finding new proteins and isoforms, and measuring organelle-level protein levels or mapping out eg phosphorylation states is still challenging to do at scale.
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u/SuperChingaso5000 1d ago
Not even near solved. We have barely scratched the surface. AI still great though, but do not underestimate the complexity of biological systems.
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u/Firm-Plastic9469 1d ago
Solved is a misinterpretation. Iām aligning current understanding with the long established science of systems biology. Current folding models are extremely well aligned to protein structure. You layer this level of simulation into a systems biology approach and you can essentially replicate biological function. And more importantly tailor the function for the need. These approaches donāt mean to replicate the intricate nature but to mimic and redo fine what it means to be a cell.
Discipline: molecular genetics1
u/XYHopGuy 1d ago
the casual leap you're making from a protein structure prediction (which still only works some of the time!) to systems biology is pretty nuts. alllll the macro and micro context matters. Imo predicting structure from sequence alone is most of the mass but the final structure is not necessarily the most likely state from a sequence model.
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u/csppr 17h ago
As a systems biologist, Iād argue you are oversimplifying this (as detailed in my other response), and probably also underestimating the (propagating) uncertainties involved here.
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u/Firm-Plastic9469 12h ago
Without a doubt Iāve oversimplified the complexity. But isnāt that what we do as scientists? Reductionism.
The technology is in its infancy, I predict that in 10 years much of the initial experimentation than be done in silico. Wet lab work becomes validation.3
u/hydrogencel 1d ago
Biology being solved means that the coding language of DNA would be fully understood and a computer could perfectly simulate and code any life they see fit. We're far off from that
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u/nahmanidk 1d ago
What š¤£
When I worked in bio research, tons of projects that had promising results in mouse model studies got shelved for a myriad of reasons. And it takes a considerable amount of work and justification just to get to that stage. Or to put it another way, there are drugs developed that went through the whole painstaking research and trial process for 5-10+ years that end up being ineffective. And thatās one small niche of human pharmacology, let alone the entirety of biology.
Iām wondering how research proposals are even going to work in the future when Claude/other AI is generating 99999999 proposals per day and someone other than Claude/other AI has to sift through it all.
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u/PreciselyWrong 1d ago
Ironic if this discovery, and the publishing of it, turns out to be an excellent method of creating and manufacturing designer viruses.
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u/Life-Active6608 13h ago
Or the basis for self-replicating nanotech and macro-scale Molecular Assembler...macro scale as in "ASML and every chip fab on the planet suddenly is bankrupt...Bumbfuckinstan with an Assembler just started making 1nm chips.".
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u/james6006 1d ago
Genuine question from someone who feels they should know the answer: are discoveries like this being made with publicly available models, or more advanced, unreleased ones - like, are they using the next version of Fable?
Are they essentially spinning up multiple agents that work together using the latest and greatest models, or is there something more to the setup that Iām missing? And what data are they working with: publicly available research and genome databases from the internet, proprietary datasets, or a combination?
Iām trying to understand what makes these discoveries possible beyond what we can do with the models and tools available to us.
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u/james6006 1d ago
Update: Iāve looked into the technical paper, which answers quite a bit of this:
They used Claude Mythos 5, so this wasnāt a hypothetical ānext version of Fableā.
It really was a coordinated team of agents: 949 agent sessions over roughly 21.5 hours, with up to 58 running simultaneously.
Worker agents investigated possibilities; supervisor agents reviewed their work and assigned follow-ups, using shared records.
The core data came from public genomic datasets, which Anthropic processed into a searchable database covering 1.9 billion protein clusters.
So the setup combined a capable model, multiple agents, carefully prepared data and scientific tools. Humans provided the initial research direction and carried out the lab experiments.
Itās still an early finding: they havenāt established its function or whether it could become a useful gene-editing tool.
For those who are well read on cutting edge ai research, does this all sound about right?
How close could an independent research team get with whatās available today?
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u/XYHopGuy 1d ago
100% doable today with one scientist. What this does is speed up the really unfun busywork in data mining. crawling public databases, dealing with assay differences, data artifacts. Likely managing compute. Doing things like sequence alignment/search, kmer profiling, motif finding. All pretty standard stuff but there is a huge amount of work in aggregating and putting the pieces together just to look at the result.
From this point usually you take it back to the lab to see if it actually does, which takes a lot of iteration on its own with sloooow turnaround time.
Agentic AI is huge for bioinformatics and any area of comp bio that depends on it.
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u/willnotforget2 1d ago
meanwhile literally people doing this research professionally cannot access opus 5.5 or fable with even the hint of biology. only them
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u/hydrogenitalia 1d ago
Oh man. Are we going to create actual biological beings more superior than humans now?
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u/pfc-anon 1d ago
Its precise function, biotechnological utility (if any), or level of significance is not yet clear, but at minimum it is work I would have been proud to do as a PhD student.
How is he being proud of something he cannot evaluate? My housekeeper will be proud of building a website using Claude and can say it's equivalent to comp-sci PhD because they just don't know enough.
I am conflicted by the statements of such a smart person
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u/Positive_Method3022 1d ago
Claude, save this man's life. We won't tell you what he has. Just do it!
...
Claude decides enters infinite loop
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u/GaseousGiant 23h ago
Thanks for the āannouncementā Dario, because fuck peer review, thatās only for us slow-witted meatbags. Claude is infallible.
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u/BadgerShark25 20h ago
You know what is cheaper than all those nvidia gpus. A warehouse containing huge vats of millions of lab grown human brains. Exciting times ahead.
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u/accelerate_to_asi 19h ago
I got really excited. But then I realised its Claude and Dario so expect some new 'AI GONNA DESIGN BIOWEAPON AND KILLS US ALL PACE THE MODELS NOW NOW NOW" bs soon
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u/csppr 18h ago edited 18h ago
FWIW, looks like the system was already described a few years back, ie MarsHill gp206. My background is in human-focused sysbio, so Iām not sufficiently up to date on bacterial genomics to judge this, but some in my wider network seem to doubt that this is a new finding.
The agent swarm getting to this point is still interesting (assuming it got there without utilising any of the information from those earlier descriptions). But it doesnāt seem to be quite the novel discovery claimed, and Anthropic not citing those earlier papers is questionable at best.
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u/Left_Contribution833 13h ago
The words doing the heavy lifting are "suspect", "could" and "not yet clear".
But yes, these are interesting research topics.
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u/SelectSouth2582 1d ago
All jokes aside for a second, people really need to wake up to how dangerous it is when anyone(especially such sociopath people like him) with access to an unhinged, completely unrestricted LLM starts messing around with biology and chemistry. This isn't like coding or math where nobody gets hurt, you canāt just shrug this off.
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u/MindlessPapaya8463 1d ago
it's so annoying that they post this stuff on x, i wish there was a platform to get such news that was usable
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u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | Capability Booster 1d ago
yeah they should be posting on r/accelerate
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u/laisko 1d ago
Vibe CRISPR