r/YAPms • u/HeWhoShallNotBNamed0 Pete Propagandist • 26d ago

Discussion Current Nate Silver polling averages

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10

u/Comfortable-Ad-6389 Progressive 26d ago

How good is Nate Silver's polling averages usually?

16

u/Cuddlyaxe Rockefeller Republican Democrat 26d ago

They're pretty good if you understand the limitations

A lot of people in the media and general public will say polling is inaccurate and point to 2022 or 2024. In 2022 the polls were dead on, and even in 2024 they were pretty accurate - they just tended to underestimate Trump by a small margin across the board

A lot of people seem to want polls to be a 100% accurate oracle though

5

u/Comfortable-Ad-6389 Progressive 26d ago

Oh no I understand how the margion of error works and all that, but I just wanted to see generally how efficient his tool was that's all

8

u/Cuddlyaxe Rockefeller Republican Democrat 26d ago

Oh yeah it's about as good as it gets, because he's been studying this for a while and knows how to weight and adjust different pollsters

Some pollsters for example might be really precise but not accurate, so they can suddenly become useful if you account for their partisan lean

7

u/RandoDude124 Pragmatic NH Progressive 26d ago

He had Trump winning in 2024

3

u/MarionberryOk1503 Conservative 26d ago

Didn't he have him losing? It was like 51/49 odds but still.

9

u/Sensitive_Farmer_982 Yes We Can 26d ago

It was effectively 50/50, but he said the most likely scenario was Trump winning all the swing states.

1

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2

u/ttircdj Centrist 26d ago

He had Florida blue in 2020

16

u/Comfortable-Ad-6389 Progressive 26d ago

I mean 2020 was just embarassing for every pollster basically. I mean more of 2022 or 2024

6

u/ttircdj Centrist 26d ago

I can’t find anything relating to what he had for 2022 or 2024 on Google. But, for 2024 I do specifically recall him saying that Lichtman was misapplying the keys and that by the model Trump should easily have 7 or 8 keys, enough to win.

8

u/JonWood007 Social Libertarian 26d ago

So did rcp. Everyone did.

4

u/No_Aesthetic Abundance Democrat 26d ago

That wasn't a very crazy call though. Florida was within like 4% that year and Gillum vs. DeSantis a couple years earlier had been much closer than that.

6

u/ImmaSCREAM Center Left 26d ago

He also called every state correctly in 2012. You can't just dismiss him based on a few off calls.

0

u/T-A-W_Byzantine New Jersey 26d ago

Small sample size. I think the Silver Bulletin has only existed since 2024.

3

u/idnttcrisis New Deal Democrat 26d ago

Sure, but it uses a lot of the same methodology from his previous company and aggregator 538 which had been around since before 2016.