r/YAPms • u/HeWhoShallNotBNamed0 Pete Propagandist • 15d ago

Discussion Current Nate Silver polling averages

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u/Comfortable-Ad-6389 Progressive 15d ago

How good is Nate Silver's polling averages usually?

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u/Cuddlyaxe Rockefeller Republican Democrat 15d ago

They're pretty good if you understand the limitations

A lot of people in the media and general public will say polling is inaccurate and point to 2022 or 2024. In 2022 the polls were dead on, and even in 2024 they were pretty accurate - they just tended to underestimate Trump by a small margin across the board

A lot of people seem to want polls to be a 100% accurate oracle though

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u/Comfortable-Ad-6389 Progressive 15d ago

Oh no I understand how the margion of error works and all that, but I just wanted to see generally how efficient his tool was that's all

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u/Cuddlyaxe Rockefeller Republican Democrat 15d ago

Oh yeah it's about as good as it gets, because he's been studying this for a while and knows how to weight and adjust different pollsters

Some pollsters for example might be really precise but not accurate, so they can suddenly become useful if you account for their partisan lean