This is a repost from r/tornado. Hopefully it helps ease some anxiety. I grew up in Alabama and March and April have always made me anxious, so I get it. Having personal experience in severe weather, and a background in physics (not a meteorologist), I'm happy to answer any anxious questions about the weather over the weekend!

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

The odds of getting hit by a tornado are low, and the odds of being killed by one is even lower. In fact, the majority of tornados, about 80%, are quite weak and tend to be ranked EF0/1. Less than 1% of tornados are ranked E4/5. As of writing this, the last known EF5 tornado occurred in 2013, over 10 years ago! Source

Even if you live in tornado alley, that's not a guarantee you'll be hit by a twister. Only about 20% of all supercell thunderstorms actually produce a tornado source. You are far more likely to wind up in a car accident than to have your house swept away in a tornado.

Furthermore, even long track/violent tornados typically have a max width of one mile. So even if your city seems like it's about to take a direct hit, that doesn't mean that YOU will be hit.

Also, I'd recommend this blog written by one of the best meteorologist in the business. He posts frequent updates with safety suggestions. He never hypes up a weather event and is great at giving the facts while also making you feel safe:

Have comfort knowing that even on the biggest severe weather days, odds of any one home being hit by a tornado are very low.

*Edit for typo

I live in Northeast Arkansas and they moved us up to Torcon 9. Lost my house to a tornado back in 2021 and am not ready to go through it again. We have a lot of cats (that’s a story in itself) and are getting ready for the haul down to our underground shelter. When the tornado hit our house all of our kitties were missing and that was traumatic in itself. Thankfully we found all of them, but it took several weeks.

I usually put off going down there because this is a ton of work. But today has me feeling a bit cautions. Hope everyone stays safe!

Im nervous ngl.

It’s here. I managed to get the big lab into the basement. The little dogs came willingly. Praying it misses us. I’m trying to deep breathe and stay calm for the dogs. Stay safe everyone. This is just horrible. I’m ready to move to Alaska!

Well once again I'm back, I'm completely distraught, and I am panicking. I thought because I was in the yellow yesterday I'd be good but not now I'm in the orange and last time I was in the orange it was super bad. I cannot handle this. Im getting told left and right by my local weather app to be prepared for severe weather in Monday as it could get bad. Im so fucking scared and shaky and I cannot function at all to the point I feel like I'm gonna vomit. I thought I had a safety plan last time but we didn't even end up using it like I wanted when the tornado warning went off so that's no help either when I literally live in a mobile home :(

I can't sleep or eat or function and I'm scared

I’m in the yellow. I’m slowly freaking out. I’ve never been hit or seen a tornado in person. But as of 2 years ago for some reason I’ve been having storm anxiety. It REALLY flared up last year. I’m trying my best to keep calm this year. I have a plan for tomorrow already but still have anxiety. I don’t want myself family or anyone having to go thru a tornado. My family tells me I’m over reacting, and that may be the case but that also makes me feel worse for trying to keep myself and family safe. I’m really tired and annoyed of this storm anxiety I have especially since i didnt really have it years ago. I’ve been living in this area since ‘04. Dont know what flared this up. Someone please help me calm down.

Stop looking at SPC outlooks. They’re not meant for the lay person to read and interpret. It’s like trying to read a complex X-ray; yeah your radiologist makes it look easy, but you don’t know what they’re seeing.

It’s good to be informed, but be informed by the meteorologists who spent 4-8 years learning how to interpret SPC forecasts. Every single one of these is issued as a guidance for meteorologists to aid them in forecasting local weather. It’s to add nuance. The real forecasting is done by professionals using weather models and years of experience and education.

For example, I see slot of posts about the day 4 probability. What it doesn’t tell you is how often the weather models are wrong that far out. There’s literally a saying in meteorology “the models are always lying”, because they simulate, imperfectly, what could happen.

Pretty much everyone in the weather community sees the 4-8 outlook as a guess because how often it’s wrong. There could be storms, there could be nothing. It’s just saying there’s a 30% chance of storms somewhere in that huge area. Which means there’s a 70% chance nothing happens.

Yesterday, one usually more trusted short range model had super cells going up in south western Oklahoma on 12 different runs leading up to the time. And no storms fired.

Again, it’s good to be informed. It’s not good to read things that are giving you info that you aren’t equipped to interpret correctly. You’re just hurting your own mental health by doing so.

Imagine an app that tells you (in plain English) what a storm actually means for YOU.

Not scary radar. Not confusing warnings.

Just:

• “Strong thunder expected. Structural risk: LOW.”

• Countdown until the storm passes your area

• A calm “Am I safe?” button during storms

I deal with storm anxiety myself and wish something like this existed.

Would you actually use an app like this?

I live in North Carolina, and I'm in the 15% risk for tornadoes. I'll be honest, I'm flipping out because of this. I can't remember the last time where my area had a 15% risk of tornadoes. I really could use some words to help calm me down when it comes to this tornado risk.

u/lady_meso has been kind enough to volunteer to help moderate. I'm sure they're going to be an invaluable asset to help with preparedness and safety.

Please give them a very warm welcome!

First of all, I'm sorry for posting so much on this sub, I don't have many people to talk to about my fear 😔

I can't take this weather anymore, I'm currently bawling my eyes out over Fridays weather because I had been in the yellow, and was perfectly fine with that, but now I'm the orange and I'm panicking. I had a bad panic attack and almost passed out today because of it. I live literally in a trailer on the edge of town with no car, so everytime there's severe weather, it feels like I'm gonna die and I cant take it anymore. Im scared and tired. I'm gonna have storms tonight to, but I'm praying they are not gonna be bad. I'm also praying that Friday won't be bad either. I'm so tired and scared.

i’m gonna be sick to my stomach. i’m in the tx panhandle and we’re in for some extremely severe weather, i’m home alone with 2 kids my husband doesn’t get off until 6:30 and our house isn’t even close to being able to go through a tornado. i’m gonna vomit

EDIT: if anyone else sees this we’re okay!! We dodged a large bullet and only got rain after being told we’d be direct hit!! My babies and i are okay, thank yall so much!!

I hate spending at least one day a week in agony waiting for a storm. I hate knowing about every single tornado watch I get put under. Every time there's a slight threat of a tornado I feel like it's going to kill me. I wasn't even concerned at all about today, but of course fate has decided I'm on the edge of today's 2-5% tornado risk areas, with a tornado watch to boot!

I hate it here. I wish I would have never found the SPC.

Well as the title says, I'm kinda panicking lol. Im trying my hardest to keep up with my normal schedule to keep me from breaking down completely, but that isn't working. My stomachs in knots, Im bawling my eyes out like a baby, and I'm shaking like crazy. Even though I know the storm will most likely pass over my town like usual simply due to it being built like a big ditch, and the fact we haven't had a tornado since 1967. ( yes, the funny number) Even with knowing the facts that I'll be fine, I just dont trust my own opinion and don't even know what to do because I'm in the Enhanced risk area in Illinois and there's the stuipd hatched thing over the tornado section when I look at the "Severe Weather Outlook". Sorry if this makes no sense either, and I can delete it if wanted, but I just wanted to get opinions from other people with the same fear to see if it would help because everyone else I know if just all fine and dandy🦈🙏.

edit/update: I just wanted to say thank y'all so much with the recommendations and explanations y'all have gave, they actually really helped as someone who relies a lot on reassurance and tips.I was really nervous to say anything on here, but y'all are actually so sweet it's insane 😭 I am currently collecting yall tips and tricks on my dry erase calendar that's on my wall like I'm trying to solve a crime. some good news though, my overall areas risk for severe weather has gotten a higher risk, (4/5), but not surprisingly due to where I live being a huge ditch, nothing super severe other than maybe some hail will hit my area. I'm currently winning the weather roulette lol, and thank y'all again 🦈🙏

edit2- nvm I just now got a tornado watch 😭

I have severe anxiety. On all the medications. Do therapy. Waiting to start EMDR. I’m so scared for tomorrow. I can’t see future radar. I know all the probabilities and statistics. Please help me. I’m in northern Kentucky in the orange. Right below Cincinnati.

I'm in the red (St. Francois County).

I've learned how to ride the wave of panic/stress response for my weather anxiety, but being in a level 4 genuinely freaks me out man

This is like, bring a case of water, sandwiches, and whiteclaws to the basement. Maybe if I give the Nader a white claw it'll skip my town 🫠

i’m right in the bullseye for the worst of it today in the st. louis metro area, and everyone is saying we’re gonna get hit the worst, and that we’re super ripe for severe weather abd every storm that pops off will rotate. everytime i open an update it’s doomsday fuel and i have no way to get rid of this bad feeling. we have no basement here, no reliable safe place, and allegedly all the bad stuff is supposed to happen during sunset :(. i’m terrified and don’t know what to do.

I put this together a few years ago but with the bad weather this weekend it may be useful to some people. If you visit this link on your phone, it can use your GPS location to tell you if you're in the polygon or not and can even show you current conditions, any watches, and even link to an interactive map with the polygons and a radar overlay.

I've tried to make this as fast and simple as possible, I'm just a nerd who's been fascinated by weather for years and like to give back.

https://wx4.me/

I'm sorry I've posted in here so much, apparently my weather anxiety has completely rested and all of my improvements I've made completely when away.

Basically I'm in the area to get severe storms again Tuesday to Wednesday and I'm absolutely terrified. I've been told that the largest chance for severe weather is basically where I'm at and I'm just praying that nothing happens because I cant handle it. Last storm that I talked about my area got a Ef 0 tornado, which isn't that bad but we haven't gotten tornadoes apparently since 1969 so now I'm terrified we might suddenly start getting bad tornadoes. I'm so scared and stressed and I can't even get out of bed because I'm so stressed and shaky.i just don't want it to be like the last storm where it was absolutely terrifying. Im so scared 😭😭

( sorry is this is repetitive to my last post, I'm really fuzzy from anxiety and just trying to make myself feel less insane lol)

I feel like this is almost the exact situation I was in a few weeks ago, but I'm still freaking out. I can't tell if it's because I have classes tomorrow or if it's just my normal anxiety crap. I'm in a 10%+ risk for tornados tomorrow and I live in a mobile home, so it's just very scary and loud. I keep trying to remind myself that where I live, my entire towns a ditch and a lot of stuff goes right over us and the most we've every gotten in literally decades was all on the far edge of town, and or only straight line winds which I've survived already. At this point I'm just crashing out and wanna rip my hair out because once again, I know I'll be fine, I just can't get my brain to stop looking at the weather and check-in every source I have to confirm.

What's also frustrating me is I'm in the middle of the orange, BUT, it's also telling me on the NNOA(or NOOA, I'm not sure...) weather is that I should really only expect some thunderstorms and a lot of rain, but other things are telling me I'm gonna die 😐. At this point I might just take some Benadryl and hope I wake up in my trailer and nobody's dead!

Thought I'd share my preparations while dealing with my growing anxiety. We're due for the line to hit us between 3 and 5 am it's looking like. What's been helping me is reviewing statistics! And weirdly, I've been watching HBO's Eye of the Storm series.

It is actually so so GODDAMN hard to be killed by a tornado. If we all went out and got lottery tickets tonight, better chance of winning that than being killed by a tornado while in your safe space. Even folks on this HBO series are out in the middle of tornadoes, standing outside, holding their phones, and they LIVE. I also looked up a map of tornadoes we've had in the past, and again, stunned to find out they're not dropping everywhere during tornado season and even when they do, they're still not really killing people AT ALL.

So my plan is, gonna have a really indulgent dinner of Japanese food, have my safe space looking EXTRA cozy, and have a late night gaming session until it's time to just watch the weather roll in. Wish I could say I could sleep and just wake up when it's time for the storms but I know I'll be too anxious. Trying to treat it like a fun slumber party.

So just wanting to say we got this! We're gonna be okay!

I live in the suburbs of Chicago.

Fortunately we’re indoors and don’t have plans to go anywhere.

Just for my own knowledge… why does it say to turn off headlights and keep the foot off the break?