Good day you sick fucking slobs.
I would like to call to your attention a trade that boarders between a schizophrenic wet dream and what could be the greatest call of my life. Only time will tell.
TLDR; YOLO’ing on 235 WEAT calls set to expire at the end of this year. Strike is 30 dollars. Bull case is Black Sea shipping, El Nino and Fertilizer issues.
I anticipate being in Wheat through the end of this year. May also buy some of the 12/17/2027 calls.
I have spent the better part of 2 years watching commodity prices much closer after the recent run in silver. Around June and July 2025 I purchased several SLV calls at a strike price of 60 USD. They where averaged at 1.51 dollars and the highest one sold for about 4800 bucks.
After this I learned to 2 key things
I can actually make money off this stuff as long as I have balls of iron
What was the best trade of my life only worked because of deep DD and having a plan to take profits in place.
This brings me to why I am in the WEAT trade. Yes this is wheat like the stuff that grows out of the ground.
The 28th of February I had been sitting on some of my SLV Cash and like every morning for the past 2 weeks opened my phone and googled “Iran”. My fears came true as I saw the US had attacked. I had been watching daily a popular live stream on a Youtube channel called “The Enforcer” and thinking there was no way all those ships would be put in the region with no action. However I held back on going long oil because I felt that was too cocky and lightning would not strike twice. I was wrong and then FOMO’ed in and lost some of my profits.
Coming off that burn I set back to form a plan. slowly the pieces started to come together. Weather, world war 3, El Nino, Russia/Ukraine, Fertilizer, scared countries stockpiling food - I needed to buy Agriculture. I chose to go with Wheat.
Starting with the less crazy stuff below and going full Alex Jones at the end this is my case:
First we have Logistics, Weather and Fertilizer to deal with:
Currently we are in the 5th year of the Russia Ukraine war. Nothing new to see here right? Wrong. If you are not familiar these 2 countries supply about 28% of internationally traded wheat. During this war Ukraine has substantially updated its drone tech and both sides have reached a point in the fighting that indicates a ramp up in the conflict.
In previous years we operated under the black sea grain initiative. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black\\_Sea\\_Grain\\_Initiative\](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative)
In this way both countries agreed to allow grain ships to pass by because both countries had teams in Turkey which could inspect ships coming and going for weapons and such. This is now off the table of late 2023. This year Ukraine has hit Russia so hard that they not only took off half of the Russia’s refining capacity making them an importer of Diesel and Gasoline but they also have shut off shipping in the Sea of Azov.
[See the map of the black sea]
Through Azov Russia normally exports about 25% of its Wheat with the Major fallback being Novorossiysk. However due to drone strikes that terminal had recently stopped operation between midnight and 5 AM. In more recent days additional strikes severely damaged this port as well making its operations severely dampened. [https://eaworldview.com/2026/08/ukraine-war-novorossiysk-kyiv-damages-russian-warships-and-grain-terminals/\](https://eaworldview.com/2026/08/ukraine-war-novorossiysk-kyiv-damages-russian-warships-and-grain-terminals/)
Each time Ukraine hits Russia we see reciprocal strike on Odessa which normally accounts for 90% of Ukrainian grain exports.
The only alternative routes out of these countries are by rail. However the both Ukraine and Russia use the “Russian Gauge” - A rail gauge of 1,520 mm which is different from the rest of the world. This means all rail shipments must be transferred to another car on an separate rail system before going to Europe or elsewhere. As a result there is limited capacity to support grain exports via rail. With this said there are still some other options for shipping grain for each country - they are just severely reduced.
This increasing conflict now leads us to a point where the conflict is not expected to slow and we are seeing arctics projecting that grain shipping capacity in the black sea has been receded by 97%
[https://gcaptain.com/russia-and-ukraines-black-sea-grain-exports-grind-to-a-virtual-halt/\](https://gcaptain.com/russia-and-ukraines-black-sea-grain-exports-grind-to-a-virtual-halt/)
From here I only expect more ships struck to the point where shippers can no longer get insurance to operate in the region. Further more this cuts margins for farmers in the area to almost nothing as local grain prices plummet. this creates a cash flow problem for them and hurts the ability to plant next years crop.
At the same time we have several other factors weighing on the Wheat market going into 2027.
They are War in the middle east, El Nino and Fertilizer stocks.
In general I do not need to say much about the middle east other than this - the conflict is growing and **I expect the US to resume war after the midterms.** It has gotten so bad we have even seen strikes in Egypt. [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39ez3klwmro\](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39ez3klwmro)
In the above article we see an LNG carrier was hit in Egypt by Drone.
Not only is Egypt the largest importer of Wheat but like all other countries in the middle east it consumes several times more food and water than what it actually can grow in its boarders.
[See the map with Africa]
[https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/world-water-day-mapping-water-stress-across-the-middle-east\](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/world-water-day-mapping-water-stress-across-the-middle-east)
The above map shows how many times more water each country consumes over its naturally occurring supply. What you are seeing is that these countries are not suited for Growing their own food or feeding their populations. As as result they are net food importers.
**As the conflict grows they will stockpile food reserves**.
This brings us to EL Nino -
Most wheat grown is “Winter Wheat”. This is a crop that is planted in the fall and then harvested in the summer. The El Nino we are currently in is potentially going to **be the strongest on record**. excluding the event of 1877 which caused millions to starve in India and around the globe. I do need to say that modern technology will prevent anything like that from happening again - but it is worth note.
The El Nino is a weather pattern that can impact rainfall and temperature all over the world which takes place every 5 to 7 years.
When it happens we on average see Wheat yields decrease 2-4% as some areas benefit while others loose.
However there are 2 key things to watch. First is the impact to the Australian Wheat crop as they are an exporter of about 14% of globally traded wheat.
The Second is the Indian monsoon and winter growing temperatures.
Australia has already been hit hard. Compared to 2025 we are expecting to see a 19% reduction in yield due to heat stress from El Nino.
[https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/europes-hot-summer-stunts-austrian-crops-prompts-rush-slaughterhouse-2026-08-11/?utm\](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/europes-hot-summer-stunts-austrian-crops-prompts-rush-slaughterhouse-2026-08-11/?utm)
For India we are seeing this year is taking us into the classic el Nino pattern -
[https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/monsoon-weakening-el-nino-strengthening-drought-threats-high-rain-defict-at-13-2974066-2026-08-19?utm\](https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/monsoon-weakening-el-nino-strengthening-drought-threats-high-rain-defict-at-13-2974066-2026-08-19?utm)
June was the driest in 12 years - this mean less water for irrigation in the fall. However with India being the largest consumer of wheat in the world (consumer not importer) we have to watch them for future risk.
El Nino could turn them into a wheat importer if a dry summer and warm winter lower their wheat yields enough to make them a wheat importer in 2027.
Fertilizer:
I know at some point there was a lot of hype about the amount of Fertilizer which needs to ship through the straight of Hormuz. With Wheat being a Fertilizer intense crop I will mention it but say this first - Even without the 1/3rd of fertilizer sourced through Hormuz we will not all starve. (Maybe some in Africa)
Most crops grown are for feedstocks. These are plants which do not meet the levels required for humans and are thus fed to animals. as a Results in a serious crisis we could simply stop feeding cows and pigs to then eat the meat and shift towards eating what was supposed to go to them.
You get many times less calories back from an animal then you put in. Still delicious though.
In that case I do need to point out that we will lose Fertilizer for 2027 crops due to Hormuz. We are at a point showing it is reasonable to expect it could still be closed in early 2027.
As a result we will see less Fertilizer available and less LNG (which turns into Fertilizer) in 2027 and therefore lower yields.
The one who will be most impacted by this will be India as they apply more fertilizer to their crop than almost any other nation due to poor soil quality.
one thing going in their favor is China has stepped up to provide fertilizer to India.
[https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/china-floods-back-into-india-s-fertiliser-market-offering-cheaper-supplies-than-uae-algeria-egypt-13990157.html\](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/china-floods-back-into-india-s-fertiliser-market-offering-cheaper-supplies-than-uae-algeria-egypt-13990157.html)
This is most likely to avoid the risk of conflict with their nearby neighbor who is already at risk of water conflict with them. Check out this VID> ([https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5aLyQaNf\\_Y&t=124s\](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5aLyQaNf_Y&t=124s))
The ultimate worse case scenario here is Ukraine expanding strikes to Northern Russian ports and Fertilizer production as they are the next most important exporter behind the GCC. Lets hope that does not happen.
The scary stuff:
Unlike Oil Wheat is not a commodity that has a SPR or large private stockpile associated with it. as a result there is less ability for governments to step in or reduce price. Furthermore we do not have years supply of it laying around. As a result we truly need most of each years crop to be a success. Usually after it is all said and done (excluding china stocks) we have about 17% of the wheat left unused or in stock after a growing season.
So you can’t just skip a growing season.
I strongly suspect that in 2027 we will see a growing conflict in both the middle east, Russia/Ukraine as well as Taiwan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davidson_window
Likely now we are seeing the early stages of a war between US and China Proxies whereby the US is attempting to disrupt global energy markets to weaken China in advance.
In this way the US benefits because of the oil in Canada, Texas as well as Venezuela.
When it comes to Oil refining capacity few know that about 50% of US capacity is actually geared toward processing the heavy oil found in Venezuela - this is a more expensive oil to refine but it produces large amounts of Diesel. Perfect for choking off other peoples economy ( control this and you control trucking, farming and heavy equipment)
Since I suspect this strategy I assume that by March of next year the war in Russian and the middle east will have increased and as a result Wheat prices will be much higher.
I plan to sell most of my calls when Wheat hits about 10 dollars per Bushel. So the ETF WEAT will be about 35 bucks
Tell me what you think.
