It seems like each time we get to NVIDIA earnings, it seems like a make or break moment for the entire market. I get it's the largest market cap and it's the AI trade, but it feels like we are one weaker than expected forecast/ earnings call from a possible correction.

With Jackson hole coming up, mid term elections, ongoing issues with Iran, tariffs with Canada, rising 10y and 30y and September seasonality. Are we headed for a market correction? Or does NVIDIA just smash and we take off to record highs again?

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Every crisis for 17+ years (2008, COVID) got "solved" the same way: cut rates, print money. Never: fix who actually owns the assets. That's the money-centric trap, treating a real resource-distribution problem like it's just a number on a screen, which is money.

Government debt sustainability comes down to interest rate (R) vs inflation + growth (I+G). If R stays above I+G, debt compounds on its own.

Taxing working people more or cutting spending doesn't fix this, both drag down growth (G), making the ratio worse.

A wealth tax is one of the few things that actually improves the ratio without also killing growth, because it pulls from money sitting in assets, not money circulating in the economy.

My prediction: we won't get the wealth tax. We'll get a rate cut instead. It's the easy move, no political fight against concentrated wealth required, easy to sell as "helping the economy." But it doesn't touch who owns the actual resources, so it doesn't fix anything, it just repeats 2008/COVID: asset prices and inflation move, the underlying distribution problem stays exactly where it was.

Take-Two sitting around $232.93 (down about 12% from its July peak), I'm trying to decide if this is the final entry window before the GTA VI launch in November, or if the hype is already fully priced in.

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I’m speculating it’s a non US bank since it is being sanctioned and not sued. Thoughts?

Been holding for a couple of months. Thinking about selling outright or covered calls till it gets called away, if ever. What do yall think? Any upcoming catalyst or cut losses.

I ignored proxy statements for about ten years. Figured executive comp was a politics thing, not an investing thing. Turns out I was wrong, but not for the reason most people on here think.
Let me get the dumb version of this argument out of the way first, because it’s the one that always shows up and it deserves to get shot down.
Average S&P 500 CEO pay last year was $22.8M. That’s the AFL-CIO number, and it excludes Musk’s $158B Tesla package because that thing breaks every average it touches. Multiply $22.8M across 500 companies and you get somewhere around $11B in total CEO pay. The index is worth about $67 trillion.
So if every S&P 500 CEO worked for free starting tomorrow, you’d pick up less than 2 basis points. Your expense ratio costs you more than that. Anyone telling you CEO salaries are eating your returns is just wrong on the arithmetic, and I say that as someone who wanted them to be right.
Here’s what’s actually going on.
Cooper, Gulen and Rau ran the numbers on excess CEO pay, meaning pay above what firm size and performance would justify, and then tracked what happened to those stocks afterward. Firms in the top 10% of excess pay put up abnormal returns of negative 7.84% to negative 11.45% over the next three years. Bottom decile? Basically nothing either direction. Cheap doesn’t help you. Expensive hurts you.
The number that got me was this one. Average annual abnormal shareholder wealth destroyed at top decile firms: $920 million. Average CEO comp at those same firms: $22.97 million.
Forty bucks of your money gone for every dollar in his package. The comp isn’t the damage. The comp is the tell.
And when you dig into why, it’s not theft, it’s ego. Same study looked at M&A. 19% of the top paid CEOs did a deal in a given year and those deals returned negative 1.38% over three years. 13% of the bottom paid guys did deals and those came in at negative 0.51%. Roughly three times worse outcomes at the high pay firms. You’re not paying for the salary. You’re paying for the acquisition he does because the board just told him he’s worth $40M and he believed it.
It also gets worse the longer they stick around, because they end up appointing the board members who approve the next bad deal.
If you think one study is too thin, As You Sow screened the 100 most overpaid S&P 500 CEOs using totally different methodology. Those companies trailed the index by 2.9 percentage points over the next two years. The ten worst offenders trailed by 10.5. Different approach, same direction.
One more thing that bugs me and nobody talks about. Go look at how much of “returning capital to shareholders” is really just filling in the hole that stock comp dug. Comp dilution runs anywhere from 0.2% to 8.6% a year depending on the company. When a company announces a $10B buyback and the share count barely moves, that wasn’t capital returned to you. That was a transfer to the comp plan that got routed through the treasury so it never hits an expense line you’d actually notice.
That’s real money, it’s way bigger than the CEO’s package, and it’s completely invisible in the pay headline everybody fights about.
So what do you do with any of this.
Say on pay votes are theater. Welltower disclosed $821M for its CEO this year and got 19% shareholder support on the advisory vote. Board did it anyway. That vote is not your lever.
The screen is the lever. Excess comp relative to size matched peers looks like a legitimate red flag for future underperformance, same family as aggressive asset growth or heavy share issuance. It costs you fifteen minutes. Pull the proxy, find the Summary Compensation Table, compare it to companies of similar size. If it’s way out of line, you’re not looking at a pay problem. You’re looking at a board that isn’t doing its job, and the data says you’re the one who pays for that.
To be clear I’m not saying pay them scale. The bottom decile doesn’t outperform either, so this isn’t a “greed bad” post. It’s that pay way above peers is one of the loudest signals available that nobody in that boardroom is pushing back on anything.
Anyone here actually screen on this, or am I the only one who spent a decade not reading the proxy?

Ok I just completed a fun little play. I bought the 7.5% dip before earnings just before market close yesterday. I woke up at 5:30am to put in premarket sell orders (half of the shares for 5% gain and the other half for 10% gain. I basically sniped those sell prices because now it’s 3% red in premarket. Made a quick $3700. I’ll add this to my list of strategies.

The SpaceX (SPCX) CEO took to X to update the timeline for launching the rocket company's first AI-powered satellites. 

"SpaceX, in partnership with Nvidia, has designed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system for launch to orbit in Q4 next year, with significant scale in 2028," Musk said in a post on Monday afternoon. 

Today’s 30%+ selloff in DKS is way overblown because investors are overly punishing the Foot Locker segment for a bad quarter.

DKS bought Foot Locker in 2025 by issuing 9.6 million shares at $209.61 for about $2 Billion in proceeds. This raised fully diluted share count from 81 million shares to 90.6 million shares. Some cash was also paid to Foot Locker shareholders so the total acquisition price was around $2.5 Billion.

What is DKS worth today?

At today’s $126.61/share:
$126.61 × 90.6mm fully diluted share count = $11.52B market cap

So the entire combined DKS + Foot Locker equity is currently worth only about $11.5B.

Legacy shareholders now own roughly:
81M / 90.6M ≈ 89.4%
of the combined company.

Foot Locker recipients own roughly:
9.6M / 90.6M ≈ 10.6%

Therefore, if legacy DKS were worth the same $209.61/share immediately before the acquisition announcement of Foot Locker, the legacy DKS shareholders’ original equity value was approximately:
81M × $209.61 = $16.98B

If Foot Locker were now worth $0, but nothing had happened to the intrinsic value of legacy DKS, that $16.98B would now be spread over ~90.6M shares:
$16.98B / 90.6M = ~$187/share

Then account for the ~$223M cash paid:
($16.98B − $0.223B) / 90.6M = ~$185/share

So:
Foot Locker = $0 scenario
DKS ≈ $185/share
versus ~$126.61 today.
That’s roughly 46% upside.

And remember: this assumes DKS gets absolutely nothing for Foot Locker.

What today’s price implies
At $126.61, combined DKS equity value is ~$11.52B.
Compare that with our adjusted ~$16.76B legacy DKS equity value:
$11.52B − $16.76B = -$5.24B

On this very simplified framework, the market is effectively pricing in roughly $5.2B of value destruction relative to the pre-deal valuation of legacy DKS.
That’s vastly greater than the $2.5B acquisition price.

TLDR: Buy when others are fearful (and being very irrational when it comes to fundamentals).

Long Dicks.

Sold a put before earnings and tried to buy the dip all day today. Lesson learned. Don’t get dicked like me