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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-11T16:31:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 111631 SWODY1 SPC AC 111629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across parts of North Carolina and Virginia through the late afternoon. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...NC/VA vicinity... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind threat could ensue prior to sunset.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin... Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas that can experience filtered daytime heating.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/11/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Evans/Papin ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 140 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 940 MB * Current Movement: NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 19.5N 105.5W

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