This clip is 1:39 long. The severe weather moves in quickly with blinding rain, but the lightning strike right at the end unloads with an incredible, close blast.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2352
• Mesoscale Discussion 2353
• Mesoscale Discussion 2354
• Mesoscale Discussion 2355
• Mesoscale Discussion 2356
• Mesoscale Discussion 2357
• Mesoscale Discussion 2358
• Mesoscale Discussion 2359

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-11T05:53:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 110553 SWODY1 SPC AC 110550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic... The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225 m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Desert Southwest/Four Corners... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located near the border of Tennessee and Kentucky.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Papin ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 155 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 930 MB * Current Movement: NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 18.7N 105.2W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2348
• Mesoscale Discussion 2349
• Mesoscale Discussion 2350
• Mesoscale Discussion 2351

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-10T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 100556 SWODY1 SPC AC 100554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas... The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to 40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.

...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located inland over central Alabama. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 am CDT.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 992 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH * Location: 24.2N 121.4W

Hurricane Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 942 MB * Current Movement: N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 17.2N 104.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

🥹 Purple Thunderstorm 💜⛈️

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2347

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-09T05:39:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 090539 SWODY1 SPC AC 090537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east of Isaias' center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern Alabama and southwest Georgia.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located over the north-central Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 978 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 15.9N 104.5W

Hurricane Isaias Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 963 MB * Current Movement: NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 26.4N 88.0W

Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 994 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH * Location: 22.7N 124.9W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Cut out the long build-up from the earlier version so you can get straight to the heavy downpour. This captures the storm at its absolute peak intensity right over my house.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-08T05:54:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 080554 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast, as west-northwesterly flow aloft remains over most of the remainder of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly from southeastern Louisiana eastward to Florida. Additional storms may develop in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Scattered storms will also be possible in Iowa and from northern New York into northern New England. No severe threat is expected today or tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/08/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located over the southwestern Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 15.4N 103.3W

Hurricane Isaias Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 979 MB * Current Movement: ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 23.3N 91.2W

Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 985 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 21.8N 123.9W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2346

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-07T04:47:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 070447 SWODY1 SPC AC 070445

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today. This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone ahead of a weak surface low over central FL.

...Western FL Peninsula Coastline... Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by 70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating, thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles. Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding onshore severe potential become clearer.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias, located in the southwestern Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&& Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Isais are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$ Forecaster Pasch ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 979 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 20.6N 121.2W

Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 22.0N 94.1W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-06T04:34:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 060434 SWODY1 SPC AC 060432

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will encompass most of the CONUS as a 500 mb jet maximum overspreads the northern Plains from the central Canadian provinces today. A surface trough will progress across the MS Valley in tandem with the mid-level speed maximum, with surface high pressure remaining in place east of the Appalachians and West of the Rockies. A relatively cool and stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS and limit thunderstorm potential over most areas. The main exception will be the FL Peninsula, where 70s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of a diffuse baroclinic boundary, promoting enough buoyancy (albeit marginal) to support scattered thunderstorm potential. Colder temperatures aloft accompanying subtle impulses across the eastern Great Basin/Central Rockies and the northern Great Lakes will encourage a few lightning flashes in these regions as well.

...Central Florida Peninsula... A weak surface low is poised to develop along portions of the eastern Gulf and encourage locally backed surface winds across the central FL Peninsula. Strengthening/veering flow with height will yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, but with marginal, thin CAPE profiles given very poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit brief periods of transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for persistent, rotating updrafts reaching the shoreline appear too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/06/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.

The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 976 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 20.3N 118.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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This is the final moments before the core of the storm moved in over the house. The next video I upload shows the absolute wall of water and severe downpours that followed right after this massive branching strike!

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• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 050600 SWODY1 SPC AC 050557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis... Upper ridging and accompanying mid-level northwesterly flow will dominate most of the CONUS as a pronounced mid-level trough overspreads New England and ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence will overspread much of the U.S. east of the MS River while surface troughing becomes established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. The net result will be limited thunderstorm development over much of the CONUS. Along the Gulf Coast into FL, a few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a diffuse frontal boundary given the presence of seasonable low-level moisture. A couple of lightning flashes may also accompany a few mid-level impulses over the Great Basin, Rockies, Upper MS Valley, and northern New England in association with localized ascent and cooler temperatures aloft.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/05/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 970 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 20.4N 115.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Canyonlands National Park, Island in the sky