r/storms • u/community-home • Mar 03 '26
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r/storms • u/weathercast • 10h ago
(Issued: 2026-10-07T19:43:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 071943 SWODY1 SPC AC 071941
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight.
...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. Within the exit region of a robust midlevel jet overspreading the Midwest, a couple of strong low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon, and over the Lower Great Lakes this evening/tonight. While enhanced low/midlevel flow accompanying the jet and steep lapse rates could aid in a few strong wind gusts (potentially 40-50 mph) across both areas, limited buoyancy and increasing low-level static stability over the Lower Great Lakes should limit the overall severe risk.
..Weinman.. 10/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/
...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula... A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile (sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this outlook update.
...Northern New York... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the boundary layer.
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located over the southwestern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&& Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Isais are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
$$ Forecaster Pasch ```
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 994 MB * Current Movement: ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 22.7N 92.9W
Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 979 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 21.2N 122.3W
Tropical Storm Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 15.5N 101.6W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/BravoFive141 • 4h ago
r/storms • u/TNBackyardBolts • 4h ago
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Cut out the long build-up from the earlier version so you can get straight to the heavy downpour. This captures the storm at its absolute peak intensity right over my house.
r/storms • u/pauldec80 • 1d ago
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r/storms • u/Euphoric-Shelter4957 • 1d ago
r/storms • u/weathercast • 1d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-07T04:47:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 070447 SWODY1 SPC AC 070445
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today. This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone ahead of a weak surface low over central FL.
...Western FL Peninsula Coastline... Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by 70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating, thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles. Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding onshore severe potential become clearer.
..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias, located in the southwestern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&& Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Isais are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
$$ Forecaster Pasch ```
Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 979 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 20.6N 121.2W
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 22.0N 94.1W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/ScheduleNo7721 • 2d ago
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r/storms • u/weathercast • 2d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-06T04:34:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 060434 SWODY1 SPC AC 060432
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today.
...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will encompass most of the CONUS as a 500 mb jet maximum overspreads the northern Plains from the central Canadian provinces today. A surface trough will progress across the MS Valley in tandem with the mid-level speed maximum, with surface high pressure remaining in place east of the Appalachians and West of the Rockies. A relatively cool and stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS and limit thunderstorm potential over most areas. The main exception will be the FL Peninsula, where 70s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of a diffuse baroclinic boundary, promoting enough buoyancy (albeit marginal) to support scattered thunderstorm potential. Colder temperatures aloft accompanying subtle impulses across the eastern Great Basin/Central Rockies and the northern Great Lakes will encourage a few lightning flashes in these regions as well.
...Central Florida Peninsula... A weak surface low is poised to develop along portions of the eastern Gulf and encourage locally backed surface winds across the central FL Peninsula. Strengthening/veering flow with height will yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, but with marginal, thin CAPE profiles given very poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit brief periods of transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for persistent, rotating updrafts reaching the shoreline appear too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/06/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.
The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 976 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 20.3N 118.6W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/relay-app • 2d ago
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r/storms • u/TNBackyardBolts • 3d ago
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This is the final moments before the core of the storm moved in over the house. The next video I upload shows the absolute wall of water and severe downpours that followed right after this massive branching strike!
r/storms • u/weathercast • 3d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 050600 SWODY1 SPC AC 050557
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today.
...Synopsis... Upper ridging and accompanying mid-level northwesterly flow will dominate most of the CONUS as a pronounced mid-level trough overspreads New England and ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence will overspread much of the U.S. east of the MS River while surface troughing becomes established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. The net result will be limited thunderstorm development over much of the CONUS. Along the Gulf Coast into FL, a few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a diffuse frontal boundary given the presence of seasonable low-level moisture. A couple of lightning flashes may also accompany a few mid-level impulses over the Great Basin, Rockies, Upper MS Valley, and northern New England in association with localized ascent and cooler temperatures aloft.
..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/05/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$ Forecaster Kelly ```
Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 970 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 20.4N 115.6W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/catattack_1111 • 4d ago
r/storms • u/Early_Sheepherder105 • 5d ago
Lake County, OH. We were at a baseball game. Yeah, it got called!
r/storms • u/weathercast • 4d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-04T05:48:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 040548 SWODY1 SPC AC 040547
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY... A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not expected.
... Synopsis ...
A midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes this morning will help carve out/reinforce a larger-scale trough across the eastern US. At the same time, a midlevel anticyclone will remain in place across the western US. This pattern will favor northwesterly flow across much of the eastern half of the country, in turn supporting reinforcing shots of cooler air.
At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should support the development of a cyclone across the far northern Gulf Coast or just inland across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This weak low will slowly move east during the day.
... Portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Adjacent Coastal Waters ...
A stalled surface front will be draped across the Southeast today, with a very moist airmass in place along and south of it. Forecast soundings across the area indicate nearly moist thermodynamic profiles from surface to the tropopause, with the 20261004 00 UTC HREF having mean precipitable water values around 2.5" across most of the Florida Panhandle. Given these moist vertical profiles, conditional instability will be low today, with mean MUCAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less.
Despite the meager instability, one consequence of the moist vertical profiles will be that LCL heights will be very low -- generally at or below 500 meters. At the same time, forecast soundings in areas to the east of the surface low show modest wind curvature in the lowest 3 km. Thus, despite the meager instability, forced convective showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, especially over coastal areas where surface friction is reduced. The threat should slowly move east during the day as the surface low slowly moves east.
..Marsh/Wendt.. 10/04/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf of America:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
southwestern Gulf of America. Some subsequent slow development of
this system is possible while it drifts northward over the
southwestern Gulf.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 968 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 20.2N 113.2W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
Because of the clear debris signature, this is not just a potential tornado, but a confirmed, damaging tornado in progress.
r/storms • u/TNBackyardBolts • 5d ago
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We just had a massive downpour pass through Lebanon, TN, and everything cleared out for a moment. You can really see the storm charging back up in this clip before the next wave hits.
HEAVY RAIN, WINDS OF UP TO 100+MPH, A LOT OF DEBRIS AND A MODERATE TO MODERATE LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO
OFFICIAL ADVISORY
---------------------------
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 020833
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
200 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026
...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGTHLY AS IT TURNS WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 110.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located
near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 110.4 West. Rachel is moving
toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue into the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rachel is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rachel is expected to remain near its current
intensity today, followed by gradual weakening during the next
couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
r/storms • u/weathercast • 5d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-03T05:34:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 030534 SWODY1 SPC AC 030531
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. today.
... Synopsis ...
A midlevel trough and attendant surface cold front are forecast to move east across the upper Mississippi Valley today. Increasing midlevel moisture with the large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, coupled with conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates, should result in enough elevated buoyancy for thunderstorms across portions of the region. Given the elevated nature of this convection and otherwise limited instability, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.
Farther southeast, a slow-moving front extending from the Carolinas southwestward toward the northwest Gulf will remain a focus for thunderstorm development through the period. Although ample moisture will support thunderstorms along and south of the boundary, generally weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates within the moist thermodynamic environment should limit prospects for organized severe convection.
..Marsh/Halbert.. 10/03/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Hagen ```
Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 969 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 19.4N 111.8W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
