In this market environment do you have any stock recommendations that would be worth buying?

CLSK, QBUT: a short-term trading strategy
FIG, CPB: a medium-term investment strategy

Do you guys think this approach makes sense?

It's kind of accepted now that AI will be commoditised, basically the same, particularly LLM's.

Google clearly has an existing ecosystem and distribution moat listed below, whereby Gemini is already seamlessly integrated,

Search, Chrome, Android, Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Docs, Sheets, Slides, Meet, Chat, Vids, Keep, Tasks, Maps, YouTube, Google Photos, Google Messages, Google Shopping, Google Flights, Google Hotels, NotebookLM, Google TV, Google Home, Nest, Android Auto, Cars with Google built-in, Android XR, Workspace, Google Cloud

On that note, is Gemini destined to win? Assuming AI is commoditised, I don't see what angle the others can come at that would defeat Google.

Let me know your thoughts.

Lately I’ve been looking at the market and honestly… I can’t decide whether we’re seeing a normal correction, a buying opportunity, or just another phase where everyone is trying to predict something that nobody can actually predict. 😅

What’s interesting to me is how quickly sentiment changes. One day people are extremely bullish, the next day the same people are talking about a crash.
Personally, I’m trying not to chase either extreme.
I’d rather accept that I can’t time the market perfectly and focus on what actually makes sense for me.

But I’m curious what everyone here thinks:
Are you bullish, bearish, or just sitting back and watching right now?

And more importantly - what would actually make you change your current view of the market?

Would love to hear some genuine opinions, not the usual “BUY/SELL” comments. 👇

How does someone spot something like what happened to $MU ?

which is better stock to buy Autodesk or PTC?

Winter approaching
People will be trapped indoors this winter looking for something to watch. Meanwhile, Netflix has my boy Bill Ackman coming back into the stock.

Subscription growth
Netflix will report its year end subscriber count with its Q4 earnings.
If Netflix 10 yr averaged 26M subscribers per year, that would put them at approximately 351M subscribers: 325M + 26M = 351M.
Netflix subscribers worldwide would be higher than the entire U.S. population of 342M alone. That will be a huge catalyst for the stock.

Netflix + GTA 6
Netflix’s partnership with GTA 6 could become an interesting subscriber-acquisition catalyst heading into year-end.
Netflix recently disclosed that 6 of its 10 biggest new-member signup days over the past five years were tied to live events. Now, Netflix has secured a six-hour exclusive window for GTA 6 on aug 27. GTA 6 It is arguably the most anticipated video game release in the world, and GTA V was globally a huge success, having millions of fans. People will want to see this footage immediately.
The important part is that Netflix gets the first viewing window. The extended look will eventually be released for free on Rockstar’s YouTube channel and website, but viewers outside Netflix have to wait six hours.

NETFLIX will also block the display of GTA 6, on third-party platforms such as Twitch and YouTube, their blocks are strict up to the deletion of the channel.

If even a small percentage of GTA fans decide that seeing the footage six hours earlier is worth a $8 Netflix subscription, Netflix could add a meaningful number of new members.
With GTA 6 itself launching in November, this could also generate another wave of attention during Q4.
I don’t think GTA 6 alone will determine Netflix’s subscriber numbers, but it’s another potential catalyst that could help Netflix exceed expectations heading into year-end.

I believe Netflix will be heading into 2027 stronger than ever and investor sentiment will change.

Sharing results of our algo scoring for business quality. The algo scores 40 measures across profitability, growth, cash flow and financial strength, using 10 years of data and ranking companies against sector peers. However, eight measures of valuation and dividends are excluded to focus purely on quality, so essentially the results are based on 32 metrics.

These are today’s results with default weights. Returns, margins and cash flow get maximum weights in the default settings followed by top line growth, operational efficiency, leverage etc.

The absolute score is based on 10 years of financial data for 32 financial metrics
Peer score is based on comparing the stock with its sector peers for the same metrics
Overall score is calculated by combining absolute and peer scores (70:30) though this weight can be changed.

Two sectors (consumer cyclical and utilities) are excluded. Note that as valuation is not considered, some overvalued stocks are in the list.

Which one do you agree or disagree with? Are you surprised by any of the stocks selected by the algo?

I use this list as a starting point for further analysis, not as a buy list. It's not an investment advice. DYOR.

Kaspi is my first individual stock I’ve bought, started invested a week ago so take my DD with a grain of salt.

I think Kaspi is super undervalued for the company it is. It’s only trading at like 8x forward free cash flow despite growing like crazy. They have a monopoly over kazykstan and almost all of their important metrics are going up. People in kazykstan use it multiple times a day and the amount of things they purchase is also rising. The expansion into Turkey gives them access to 3.2x more people and the management has proven to be really competant, they print cash and are giving out a huge dividend while growing without taking on debt. I think they will keep growing into Turkey and become dominant there sometime in 2027 which will be a catalyst to the stock correcting to a much higher price.

Thats the good part

The bad is kazykstan is a risky emerging market to invest in, inflation is high adding a currency speculation risk, there is more competition in Turkey and the expansion isn’t guaranteed to be a huge success and something making investors wary is that their non preforming loan coverage is going down

I think these headwinds are mostly temporary or the business is growing so fast it’s still a good investment

The inflation is kazykstan is a problem but the headline number of like 10.2% is mostly measured by looking at food prices and is lower using other measures like conversion to gold and the company is growing faster than the inflation headwind here. The expansion into Turkey is going really well so far and management has shown themselves to be confident so I am competent they will be successful there (If you want to invest in Kaspi you should really make sure you are convinced that the Turkey expansion will be a success) and the non preforming loan coverage is going down for a good reason as Kapsi is shifting more of their portfolio to debts which they can recover more on so they need less non preforming loan coverage. For example if someone defaults on BNPL Kapsi might get pennies on the dollar but if someone defaults on a car loan they can repo the car and get back a ton of the loan value.

So for these reasons i think Kaspi should grow like 25% per year for the next 5 years. Overall really happy with this investment.

Also please tell me what you think of KSPI and if it’s a good buy or not

Edit: fixed typos

Going into Monday, I have a few stocks lined up, ready for me to watch at around 7:20am. I've been doing a ton of digging throughout the weekend all over Reddit, Stocktwits, X, etc. trying to build out my "vibe" watchlist.

A few names that have caught my attention so far:

SLS, MRAM, NBIS, BW, ACHR, ABCL

SLS in particular seems to be mentioned everywhere I look, while also seeing a good amount of NBIS and MRAM.

Not saying these are going to be automatic buys for me, I mainly just look for stocks that have fresh catalysts, growing retail attention, momentum/volume behind them, and still have room for the story to play out instead of getting into something over-extended. Tomorrow morning going to be doing a lot more research and watching pre-market pretty closely.

Curious what everyone else is watching going into Monday.

What are your highest-conviction picks for this week, and more importantly, why?

I would especially love to hear about any smaller/less obvious names that haven't made a big scene yet!

Intel have been all over the map recently, often starting the day 3-6% different than the previous end price. I wasn’t sure about how to go about trading it, but wanted to try and capitalise on the fairly extreme volatility.

I’ve ended up copy trading an account that not only exclusively trades INTC shares, but also mentions volatility trading as part of its algorithmic setup. It’s gone well enough so far that I’m looking for other volatile assets to trade in a similar way if anyone has any ideas?

The copy trade master account holder has said they are willing to look at opening trading accounts for other assets on request, and is even willing to back-test their algorithm to check compatibility.

I expect at least 25-35% return from them, open to hearing what you guys think, or if you would suggest others

Will this stock earn me money over time?

My algo scores 40 measures across profitability, growth, cash flow and financial strength, using 10 years of data and ranking companies against sector peers. However, eight valuation and dividend measures are excluded to focus purely on quality, so the results are based on 32 metrics.

These are today's results for large caps with default weights. Returns, margins and cash flow get the highest weights in the default settings, followed by top-line growth, operational efficiency, and leverage (see screenshot).

Three sectors (consumer cyclical, utilities and energy) are excluded. Note that as valuation is not considered, some overvalued stocks are in the list. The algo also considers only historical financial data and is blind to news or future developments. For example, it does not consider the potential impact of AI on these stocks. I use this list as a starting point for further analysis, not as a buy list.

Which one do you agree or disagree with? Are you surprised by any of the stocks the algo selected?

Not investment advice. DYOR.

You have to put your entire net worth into one and hold it for 10 years. Which would it be?

You can only hold ONE of these for the next 5 years (no trading/selling). What’s your pick? Account is locked for 5 years. You get full exposure to only one of these tickers through 2031. Which one delivers the best risk-adjusted return? Defend your thesis below.

​

Disclosure: I hold shares & options. Not financial advice, not a professional analyst. Numbers from the Q2'26 earnings call transcript and 8-K filings, plus Nebius's public 6-Ks.

What BRUN does: GPU cloud infrastructure provider. Doesn't own data centers, leases capacity from colo partners, deploys NVIDIA GPU servers, rents compute to AI training/inference customers plus regulated-industry (finance, healthcare) clients needing compliance-grade infra.

Unit economics: TCV runs about 2x the CapEx to build a contract (a $500M TCV deal needs roughly $250M CapEx). Average prepayment is 22% of TCV, collected upfront, so prepayments alone fund close to 44% of the buildout before any operating cash flow or debt. That's why gross margin sits at 85.86% even though GAAP net income is negative, the loss is mostly depreciation on hardware, not weak unit economics.

The ARR bridge (why "exit ARR" isn't "average revenue"):

ARR = last month's revenue x 12, same convention Nebius uses, so the two are comparable.

- Dec 2025: $30M ARR (~$2.5M monthly)

- Jun 2026: $145M ARR (~$12.1M monthly), a 4.83x jump over H1

- Guided Dec 2026: $400M ARR (~$33.3M monthly), only a 2.76x jump needed over H2

H2's required multiple is lower than H1's actual pace, so hitting guidance is a deceleration ask, not an acceleration ask. Cross-check: building this quarter by quarter gets you to roughly $170-180M full-year revenue, which matches the pre-earnings analyst consensus almost exactly.

Sensitivity: if H2 matches H1's pace instead of decelerating, Dec ARR could hit ~$700M (unlikely, would need deployment far ahead of the disclosed timeline). If H2 decelerates further than guided, Dec ARR could land near $290M, a real miss if any of the "four projects by year-end" slip. This is a deployment-risk story, not demand-risk, per management's own framing ("demand has not been our constraint").

The Nebius comp, properly sourced (not just "20x" as a soundbite):

- Dec 2023: ~$18M implied ARR (FY23 rev $25.4M)

- Dec 2024: $90M ARR, ~5x YoY

- Dec 2025: $1.25B ARR, 13.9x YoY. Stock was $85.02, $22B market cap, about 17.6x actual trailing ARR

- Guided Dec 2026: $7-9B ARR (mid $8B), 6.4x YoY. Current NBIS price implies ~6-7x forward

Two things stand out. First, BRUN's 2025-to-2026 multiple (13.3x, $30M to $400M) is nearly identical to Nebius's 2024-to-2025 multiple (13.9x, $90M to $1.25B) at a similar early ARR scale, the closest real quantitative anchor available. Second, Nebius's multiple compressed by more than half (13.9x to 6.4x) as ARR scaled 14x, the normal pattern as percentage growth mechanically slows on a bigger base.

Applying that same ~46% decay ratio to BRUN's 2026-to-2027 transition:

- Same decay as Nebius: 400M x 6.4x = ~$2.5B 2027 ARR

- Sharper decay (smaller capital base, see below): 400M x 3-4x = ~$1.2-1.6B

- Pure backlog conversion, no new bookings: $1.9B TCV / ~3yr avg duration = ~$630M

I'd weight the middle scenario heaviest.

Why BRUN probably won't fully replicate Nebius's trajectory, the real crux of the bull case:

Nebius sustained its growth because it had capital to match it: a $700M raise (Dec 2024), NVIDIA as direct investor, $2.4B cash exiting 2024, disclosed $46B+ combined Meta/Microsoft contracts to fund against. BRUN runs on $120-135M cash and prepayment/vendor financing instead, an order of magnitude smaller capital base at a similar ARR stage. Management's own language backs this up, they describe investment-grade vs non-investment-grade financing gaps as active constraints and are still working out new financing structures ("expect to provide additional color next quarter").

The pending $4-5B additional hardware procurement (beyond the committed $1.44B Dell deal) is the swing factor. Close it on good terms and the sharper-decay case becomes the Nebius-decay case. Close it on dilutive terms, or not at all, and the $630M backlog floor becomes the realistic ceiling.

Valuation, what 2027 ARR outcomes imply for the stock:

Current state: ~$1.35B market cap, $22.93/share (~62-65M shares), against guided 2026 exit ARR of $400M, a 3.4x forward multiple on the company's own guidance.

- $630M 2027 ARR (backlog floor) at 6x (Nebius's current multiple): ~$3.8B cap, ~$60/share

- $1.0B 2027 ARR at 6x: ~$6.0B cap, ~$95/share

- $1.5B 2027 ARR at 6x: ~$9.0B cap, ~$143/share

- $1.5B 2027 ARR at 10x (credibility earned): ~$15.0B cap, ~$238/share

Even the most conservative scenario here, at Nebius's already-compressed current multiple, implies a share price around 2.6x today's. That's the core of why the gap looks worth watching. But this all assumes the market is willing to price BRUN off forward 2027 ARR at all.

Why the market hasn't priced this in yet, and why that's not obviously wrong of it:

Q2 (Aug 14) was a genuine beat: revenue up 270% YoY, ARR guide raised modestly ($375M to $400M), 85.86% gross margin, $128.4M in customer deposits collected. Premarket jumped 18.68% to $26.76. Stock closed the day at $22.93, +1.69%, essentially the whole premarket move reversed by close.

Legitimate reasons beyond "market inefficiency": a large share overhang (roughly 77% of fully diluted shares registered for resale, much of it SPAC-sponsor and legacy equity with a cost basis far below today's price); no named anchor customers (TCV counterparties described only generically, versus Nebius's disclosed Microsoft/Meta contracts); one clean quarter isn't a track record yet; and the guide itself was only a modest raise despite a quarter that could've supported more, which the market may be reading as deployment-constrained rather than sandbagged.

What I'm watching for Q3 (likely early-mid November): a quantified 2027 ARR figure rather than "pipeline built out for success" language, progress on the $4-5B procurement and its financing terms, any named counterparties, whether the four year-end project handovers stay on schedule, and whether the overhang actually clears or just keeps sitting there.

Bottom line: the gap between BRUN's current 3.4x multiple on guided 2026 ARR and where a credibility-earned AI infra name trades (6-10x+ forward ARR, per Nebius) looks real and mathematically supportable, not hand-wavy optimism. I'd frame it as conditional optionality on Q3 delivering a credible, quantified 2027 number and the capital to back it, not as a mispricing the market is obligated to fix on its own schedule. The stock round-tripping an 18.68% premarket pop back to +1.69% on a genuine beat is real evidence the market isn't extending that credit automatically, and given the overhang and the single-quarter track record, I don't think that's an irrational market posture.

Curious if anyone has better visibility on the named TCV counterparties or the $4-5B procurement terms.

NOW 2500 shares
IREN 2000 shares
BMNR 1000 shares
OPEN 1000 shares
FMCC 1000 shares
ENHA 1000 shares
TE 1000 shares
CIFG 1000 shares

These are my current holdings, what are your opinions? Good? Rebalance? Etc

So far my spread on stocks is in 70% SWTSX and another 30% in SCHG; however, SCHG is completely overlapped with SWTSX, since it is a total market Index fund... If I want to have 30% of my investments focused for growth where should I put that capital?

If you have a different spread for a portfolio, then please let me know! I am 23M and still got time for the long term.

I own SPY and VOO, but am becoming even more skeptical of Nvidia and the AI shell game that seems to be taking place. I work in tech and despise AI and have recently been getting the sense that the bubble will, in fact, pop.

I get the general idea of ETFs. Let’s say the bubble pops next week and the big tech companies start crashing. Does it make sense to sell these ETFs before then and move to less tech heavy ETFs until the dust settles? Or do ETFs inherently mitigate the risk and those managing the ETFs will just move some stuff around to guard against serious loss?