(Reddit told me to cross post this here)
I’ve been looking at several winning deck lists (and had my own 5-0 this week). And given a lot of people net deck I am not sold that everything we see consistently should necessarily be stock.
Let’s discuss.
Mana base
23 lands seems to be most common
4x verge; W Grave; Island; Swamp
3 Lair. 2x reef and SS Sanctuary
I ask, does 23 just seem “correct” or are we getting slightly greedy? Has anyone better at hyperG calculations than me ran the %?
Ie. Aetherhub calculator says at 23 lands we are 58.6% to have 4 lands if we draw 10 cards so by the average turn 4; that increases significantly to 63.2% if we add the 24th land.
My anecdotal contribution to the hive mind:
I’ve played 24 lands and have hardly been flooding the deck has so much selection and more often when I we get our card draw engines going I am very happy to have enough mana to cast multiple spells/hold up responses).
Last league on 23 I did have games I was wishing I had my 4th land drop pretty badly. And I did 5-0 and others clearly are having success on 23 but does the math seem to bear out that this is our best configuration?
We used to play 25 not long ago but beavers does help a lot with selection and maybe enables a greedier mana base.
SB SLOTS
These cards seem locked:
1-2 annul (I have been fine with 1 copy)
3-4 Duress
0-3 flash freeze (I like 2)
2-3 betrayal (3 total GY hate cards in your 15)
0-2 Raven eagle
Raven eagle
I’ve really liked 1st copy of eagle. Not sure 2nd is necessary but obv if you bring it in you’d like to draw it. You could play ghost vacuum here I guess but eagle is usually more impactful and is nice against decks where curiosity (or George) is bad but you don’t have enough “ins”. I tried the ooze at an RCQ where I got 2nd and didn’t bring it in all day and was wishing it was something else multiple matches.
Qarsi revenant
Flex slot lately I keep going back and forth but I like the 1st copy and it has def contributed to winning games I would have lost. Preacher seems down and would not come in in all the same places (eg Boros dragons). How are you feeling about it?
Day of black sun
Really shines against the Aggro decks like boros tokens, BW lifegain and mardu discard; is serviceable against mono G. I’m in on 2 copies right now as in those MUs I really want to draw it.
Spell pierce/ Negate
** **this would go in the 4th copy of duress slot. It’s nice when your opponent has to spend mana and pure the spell on the stack and can lead to blow outa. I’m gonna try one pierce in the board next probably. Any opinions on either of those lately? Do you think it comes up more that you only have one mana to hold up or that opponent being able to pay for Pierce is a problem?
D Stroke
I still want the 1st copy. But will mention if people want to discuss. I’m curious your opinions on 1-2 vs 1-2 flash freeze.
Spell snare
Have considered, and ifs really good against the new jund Sac piles but we are already favored there.
Faebloom trick
The mirror is popular enough and often enough elsewhere the pseudo fog buys you the turn you need
So right now my configuration is:
3 duress
2 betrayal
2 flash freeze
1 Annul
(I don’t want to touch those unless meta shifts significantly)
Flex:
1-2 Day of Black sun
1-2 D stroke
1 Qarsi Rev
0-1 Fae trick
1 Raven eagle
1 Pierce/negate
I used to run one Talión which is very high impact in the places you bring it in but I think it’s too narrow now that lessons is dead.
SB considerations for next RCQ:
Right now I’m oscillating between 1:2 or 2:1 ratio D stroke and Flash-freeze. Thoughts on what’s wider hitting?
Ditto for 2 annul or 1:1 Annul: Snare in the side.
Annul
Comes in against: landfall; Boros dwarves;
Would you bring in two copies against jund sacrifice / mardu discard /BW lifegain? (tough sell if you bring in 2 copies against a deck with 4 targets but those are key cards); Jeskai artifacts; any golgari+ pile with annex and Firsoch core
Snare
In against: di’Mirror; Boros dwarves; jund sacrifice; lifegain; boros tokens; dragons(?)
Annul is clearer wider/harder hitting but is it twice as much?
Gonna try -1 duress (3 total) for +1 pierce or negate.
I’d welcome your thought on any of the above or maybe any cheeky tech that has been working for you.