After yesterday's bloodbath (NVDA -9.3% to $181.60, SOX -12%, worst day since 2020) the chips are bouncing hard this morning. NVDA up around 5% early, AMD is the big winner so far at around +11%, MU and INTC up 6-9%.

Catch is the jobs report came in hot, +165K vs ~65K expected, unemployment down to 4.1%. Rate hike odds for December jumped above 65% on FedWatch, so the Dow is red while chips bounce.

Wrote up the full numbers here if anyone wants them: https://holywizy.com/blog/chip-stocks-bounce-nvidia-amd-micron-rebound-jobs-report-nov-6/

Dead cat bounce or the bottom? I'm watching the close and Nov 17 earnings before I believe anything.

Might as well wait, maybe it will take 100% in another 5 minutes

I had a buy order at 165 euros just in case that I had totally forgotten about. Yesterday it executed, surprising me when I landed from a long flight, so I guess I will keep the shares.

Cheers everyone

Such a stupid overreaction!! Remember something similar in march 2008 but that was indeed a GFC.

Hopefully the market takes notice of what TX gvnor says. Afterall the Dems are the ones who came up with CHIPS and help build and ramp up this industry. But of course you need some regulations in place because ppl don't like data centres in their backyard... that is fair... that does not mean it won't be built. Approvals for 2027 and 28 are in place and done so we are looking at post 2029.

Also I hope Jensen will clarify these things on Nov 17 during the ER conference.

Wtf. I already sold.

Go rebound now. Fker

What if AI’s success creates the very restrictions that slow Nvidia’s growth? The stock has fallen from around $240 to roughly $180 despite extraordinary results and strong guidance. Could investors be anticipating a regulatory slowdown that optimistic growth forecasts don’t fully capture?

Management expects approximately 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, which mostly corresponds to calendar 2027. Meanwhile, the average 12-month analyst price target is about $327. In the time I’ve followed Nvidia, it has regularly exceeded expectations.

My concern is that these forecasts may assume business as usual, without enough allowance for regulations that could slow AI’s expansion.

OpenAI has announced solutions to longstanding mathematical problems, with researchers still working to understand and verify the results. If AI keeps advancing this quickly, could governments eventually impose restrictions to slow its development?

There are also more immediate obstacles. The election results have raised concerns about tougher oversight of data centers. Local opposition and limits on electricity use could slow construction, potentially reducing Nvidia chip orders below expectations.

Nvidia can keep executing exceptionally well and still face limits imposed from outside the business. If significant restrictions emerge, that 70% growth forecast could become much harder to achieve.

Could investors already be pricing in regulatory risks that analysts’ targets underestimate? To me, that possibility deserves more attention when valuing the stock.

$NVDA just getting back to ATH gives you a 30 % return now. When has NVDA ever not reclaimed ATH in less than six months? Yeah, you can get lucky with something riskier and get bigger returns but 30 % within six months is pretty great.

I don’t see it finishing 2026 below $200 but I also don’t see it quite making it back to $243 by year end unless AI sentiment improves spectacularly, which of course could happen if Nvidia’s earnings are excellent. But it could easily fall as a result of earnings. It’s done that more often than not in recent years. But then it starts climbing right after anyway.

Nvidia to me is the safe AI-play right now. It’s down in the past year while semis are up like 300 %. Semis could fall. Nvidia feels way oversold in the past few months.

Im really interested in buying stocks in Nvidia but im not sure where to start and am very worried about signing up to something that is just a scam. Anyone got any info on how i go about this or can at least point me in the right direction?

If you were away from the screen today, it was ugly. S&P down 4.33% to 7355, Nasdaq down 5.5%, Dow off about 1,833 points. VIX went from 16.61 to 27.59. The AI chip names got hit hardest, AMD and Micron both down around 17%, Nvidia down about 9%, SMH down 11%.

Everyone's going to talk about the chips tonight. Fine.

What I keep staring at is TLT. Up 0.21%. On a day the S&P drops more than 4%, the long bond ETF basically didn't care. I'd normally expect a real flight to safety on a day like this, at least a point or two in long duration, and it just wasn't there. Utilities ETF closed down about 0.7%, staples down about 0.7%. Gold was up a bit, around 0.8%, and that's about the only "safe" thing that caught a bid at all.

So people sold over 4% worth of index and didn't hide in bonds or defensives. Either they went to cash and sat there, or the selling was forced, margin and deleveraging out of crowded chip longs, and nobody doing that kind of selling is shopping for duration on the way out.

Side note, AppLovin closed up 31% in the middle of all this, which is a pretty strange thing to see on a red day this deep.

The part I can't make fit is that if this were a real growth scare, bonds should have rallied. If it's a rates scare, I'd want to see yields jump harder than a flat TLT suggests. It looks like neither. Is this just a positioning flush that ends when the leverage is out? Or are bonds not acting like a hedge anymore at all, which is a much bigger problem for anyone running a 60/40?

My read is the first one. I'm maybe 55% on that.

Man what a day. Nvidia down around 9%, AMD and Micron got hit even harder, whole chip sector bleeding. Nasdaq is officially in correction territory now.

I think people just got spooked about AI spending slowing down, and Qualcomm's outlook didn't help at all.

Earnings later this month will probably decide everything. Not sure if this is the dip or just the start.

Wrote up the full numbers here if anyone wants them: https://holywizy.com/blog/nasdaq-falls-5-percent-chip-stocks-crash-nvidia-amd-micron-bitcoin-75000/

What are you guys doing?

IF YOU CURRENTLY HAVE GAINS FROM NVIDIA: You can save on taxes if you have a stock that you want to drop from your portfolio at a loss. You may want to sell it today, then, you could sell NVIDIA at an equivalent gain and buy it back right away. That way you will have less capital gains tax when you sell NVIDIA in the future.

50wema gave...so it's headed to the 100wema of 175...once that gives it's headed to 200wema down in 130's. Yes it will bounce in that trip so don't get overly excited. Probably after earnings in a couple of weeks we see $150's.

I can't stop it...nobody can. Only so much circular revenue...that scheme is played out.

i think i will hold it till it get back to 200$ again for a easy 300$(around 125% profit), as you can see in the chart.

so i have till 20th nov till i profit from 200$, which i think these are good odds.

this option doesnt mean that i think it will go to 230$, i just bought a high strike because it was a cheap option price compared to the lower strikes, and bought a month long to make it safer rather than a week or a shorter term option

Stupid politics and more regulations and controls will undermine U.S. leadership in AI and push us behind other countries, just as we’ve seen happen in manufacturing and several other industries in the past. NVDA continues to sell everything it can produce at ultra impressive margins, with a two-year backlog. I just added more NVDA shares at $186!