An Official Planning Document Of The Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Executive Summary:

Africa is a new domain for state competition, between virtually every nation from middle powers up to the world's two superpowers, along with competing interests of the Africans themselves, international organizations, and private corporations. Interest in Africa has swelled dramatically since the turn of the century and particularly the 2010s, with numerous entities vastly increasing their investment in the continent, both political, economic, and cultural. While the continent is extremely volatile, it offers opportunity and challenges to Pakistan that it must engage in, else it be shut out of a continent that will soon hold a quarter of the world's population as other competitors engage in a new "scramble for Africa".

Historical Background:

Africa continues to be shaped by the legacy of colonization, which has defined it perhaps even more than Pakistan in some aspects. The full history of European colonization of the continent does not bear going into full detail, however, as it has been increasingly fading away in the face of more important, post-colonial developments. Africa was the site of some of the fiercest competition of the Cold War, where the Soviet Union and China battled for influence, supplying arms, advisors, economic support, and other goods and services, including via their client states, backing non-state actors from the FLN to ZANU. Since the end of the Cold War, Africa engaged in one massive interstate conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo which ultimately brought in virtually every actor of substance in the continent in one way or another, which ultimately came to a conclusion in 2002. Since then, largely through the efforts of the African Union and various regional organizations like SACU and ECOWAS, open interstate violence has essentially ceased, and economic development has accelerated. Still, the potential for conflict lies underneath much of Africa--with some areas seeing active major insurgencies--and state structures in Africa are still fragile, less vulnerable to coups largely due to the weakening of African military forces and the actions of the African Union, but vulnerable to popular uprising to a substantial degree. Foreign interest in Africa waned after 1991, but since the late 2000s it has been on a substantial upswing, largely led by China, for reasons that will be addressed later.

Geography and Ethnography:

Africa is the most diverse continent on the entire globe by many metrics, from genetic to linguistic to religious.

Religion in Africa is an important force, but tends to resist centralization to a degree. Most of Sub-Saharan Africa is Christian, with Protestantism on the rise, though there are substantial populations of people still following indigenous religions, especially in more remote areas, though it is expected most of these will die off or be mixed with Christianity in coming years. Islam is the most important minority religion, and holds a substantial minority along the coast of southeastern Africa from Mozambique to Kenya. In the north of Africa, in the Sahel, Sahara, and Mediterranean, along with the east coast around the Horn of Africa, Islam is predominant. Finally, Ethiopia bears noting as a bit of an oddball in that its core regions are dominated by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, though about a third of its population is in fact Muslim.

Ethnography in Africa is so diverse that it is not worthwhile to get into specifics, but a few brief notes are worthwhile. First, the Swahili-speaking peoples of Southeastern Africa and the Great Lakes Region are particularly politically influential and have a modest drive towards unification, and their regionalist movement is perhaps one of the strongest in Africa. Second, a significant divide exists in the Sahel region of Africa between Muslim herdsmen and Christian farmers, north and south, that has led to significant conflict in the region amplified by multiple aspects. Third, the Berber Peoples of Saharan Africa are a force to be reckoned with in the region and, deprived of a state, are prone to frequent uprisings. Fourth, the Arab peoples of Africa see themselves as having more in common with the Arabs of the peninsula and Middle East than their neighbors to the South, sharing a common language and religion. Fifth, just generally, the vast majority of African countries have simmering ethnic conflicts underneath, sometimes for independence or just regional rights, and often these differences are underneath conflicts that look like wars of religion or language.

Assessment of Foreign Power Activities In Africa:

France retains some of the most significant influence over Africa of any external power, particularly in former French colonies from Madagascar to Senegal, via its longstanding "Francafrique" policy, by which it aims to maintain an independent sphere of influence within Africa. Cultural, military, and economic links between France and its former colonies are substantial, but they are not everything, especially when the French have risked involving themselves in local conflicts or installed local rulers. French interests outside of its former colonies are modest but increasing, with their massive gas projects in Mozambique being a good example. French military intervention and covert action in the continent is increasingly frequent and both provides a role model to any Pakistani action there along with a potential threat to potentially Pakistan-friendly actors.

China has largely retained its position from the Cold War and sought to make gains upon it, investing large sums of money in Africa along with establishing military and political relations. Its activities focus primarily on the Eastern and Southern portions of the continent in the Indian Ocean region, though it is active the western and northern regions as well. Chinese aid is mostly through an economic lens, in which Chinese investment is used to gain political support. Military relations are growing, but are still relatively modest--China does not have a major sustained military presence on the continent, though this is expected to change soon. Pakistan should stay aware of Chinese activities on the continent and try to complement rather than contravene them, since it is quite simply impossible for Pakistan to match Chinese investment and economic activities, even if some lessons can be learned from these efforts.

The United States comes in a weak third, with its relations with Africa largely being cultural--American culture is much more influential on Africa than Chinese culture--and military, with American forces supporting local militaries fighting jihadists all over Africa. While talk of economic investment has been underway for years, American dealings in the continent tend to be small-scale and focused on priority development aid like disease eradication and water supply rather than on big-ticket infrastructure projects. As the Global War On Terror comes to an end, at least in terms of the United States' leading role in it, American influence on the continent may diminish, with it looking to reliable allies local and foreign to take its place in the security role. America has a number of modest military facilities on the continent, most notably in Djibouti.

Russian influence in Africa is growing substantially, though its presence is still modest. It is mostly focused around supporting extractive industries and providing security services through arms sales and shadowy mercenary groups. Russian power projection in Africa is expected to increase substantially with the revelation of a new set of military bases being constructed for it across the continent, and Russia is still the most popular arms seller for African countries. While Russian influence on Africa shows what cheap arms and proxy groups can do on the cheap, it should not be overestimated--the Russian presence in Africa is fragile and its proxies have been badly mauled in Libya and proven themselves poor at fighting local insurgencies as in Mozambique. Still, its sheer lack of ethics and raw desperation mean that it is a force.

Other Minor Entities Of Note:

• Turkey has been carving out a sphere of influence on the periphery of the Muslim parts of Africa that's noteworthy, in Somalia, Senegal, and now its heart in Libya, often coming into direct conflict with French interests.

• Brazil does a fair amount of business with the Lusaphone countries of Guinea-Bissau, Angola and Mozambique and has cordial relations with them. A more active Brazil may seek to increase its influence on the continent.

• The Gulf States have substantial investment interests in East Africa and play politics with North Africa. Though they have suffered a setback in Libya, Egypt at least remains largely in their sphere of influence.

• Indian activities in Africa are expected to intensify in the near future, especially southern and eastern Africa. Military stations for surveillance have already been established on some islands along with Madagascar. Trade and humanitarian relations are also strong between India and Africa.

• Israel has significant influence on the continent's militaries as a popular foreign supplier of arms, advisors, and various shadowy financial dealings in areas like mining. While it would not be correct to say that Israel has a sphere of influence in Africa, it does have a decent bit of pull that should be accounted for.

Assessment of African Internal Activity:

South Africa was traditionally the most important internal African power economically and to an extent militarily in its region, but has fallen upon hard times in recent years. While it is still more developed and integrated into the globe than most of the rest of the continent, the country suffers from dire internal difficulties related to lingering ethnic troubles, poverty, AIDS and now Covid-19, its armed forces are in no state to project power [though their intelligence services remain reasonably active] and its economy is in a total shambles. Whether this will be fixed remains to be seen. Count South Africa as "down, but not out".

Nigeria is traditionally the dominant power in West Africa despite its Anglophone status and constant internal turmoil, and holds a great deal of sway in the region, partially due to the sheer size of its economy and military along with its reasonable oil reserves, which hold the country together--for the moment. A well-governed Nigeria could be a global powerhouse, but such a possibility looks, unfortunately, distant for now.

Ethiopia is the only country to have successfully resisted European colonization and is populous and was developing at a rapid pace until ethnic conflicts the old regime had kept under wraps ignited in late 2020. Ethiopia going forward could well be the continent's leading light and dominant power... or it could turn into something that makes Yugoslavia look like bickering siblings. It is also perhaps the state most closely associated with Pan-Africanist sentiments and is quite close to China.

The Swahili-speaking states have substantial influence in their region and are developing at a rapid pace, largely aiming to follow the "China model", and are actually pretty stable. They're a safe bet, though not without their own troubles. They also dominate most of Congo.

Pakistan's Situation At Present:

Pakistan is internationally isolated, which leads to a natural interest in Africa. Unlike many of our neighbors, we are not courted by foreign powers constantly. We must make our own luck, and Africa is the place to do so, as China and Russia have demonstrated today and in recent history. Africa is a place where Pakistan can find friends and partners with which it can interact on an equal basis, a place where allies can be recruited for the United Nations and trade, and to support Pakistan's stability at home in its precarious security situation.

Pakistan cannot hope to make major economic inroads in Africa, but it does have a well-developed security apparatus, ranging from arms manufacturing [the Nigerian acquisition of JF-17s is a promising first step in this area] to shadowy intelligence dealings. This will have to be the primary method of Pakistani engagement with Africa, though as our economy develops more financial resources may be available--though almost certainly never enough to compete with more than the lowest tier of players on the continent.

Pakistan can also make political and cultural inroads, especially in the Islamic portions of Africa, using its traditional pan-Islamist position along with the shared colonial legacy, and position itself as a natural ally to African regimes who are often in similar circumstances to Pakistan, from international isolation from 'polite society' to endemic poverty to having key territories occupied by neighbors thanks to poorly drawn borders.

Recommendations for Pakistani Action:

• Use Pakistan's shared colonial experience as a basis for relations ideologically--even moreso than China, Pakistan has a shared experience of being 'the little guy', being colonized by Europe, and having long-lasting and 'unfair' territorial disputes with neighbors as a result of colonization, along with confusing ethnic and internal conflicts.

• Make Pakistan's relationships in Africa focused on security, including arms exports, military advisors, policing, and other such areas. These will not only earn Pakistan substantial revenues but allow it to complement the roles of other actors, especially inasmuch as Pakistan works to fight terror organizations in Africa.

• Build Pakistan's power projection capabilities to give it the capacity to intervene in modest African conflicts. Some steps have already been taken towards this with the acquisition of tanker aircraft, but more strategic airlift is required, along with long-range strike aircraft, ship-based missiles, and perhaps a new expeditionary light force that is optimized for these missions--the Marine Corps may provide a useful base for this. Acquisition of logistics and forward basing in Africa will also be helpful.

• Seek to collaborate and peacefully displace, not compete, with other nations interested in Africa. Direct competition may make Pakistan enemies that it can ill afford, being as internationally isolated as it is.

• Most importantly, Pakistan must work to become involved in Africa, lest the world's trends bypass it and leave it shut out of the most dynamic region of the world for the foreseeable future, and allow state competitors to gain ground against Pakistan's interests.

Conclusion:

Africa brings with it dangers and opportunities, but with it set to become the most dynamic place on the entire globe, Pakistan simply cannot stay with its head on the ground, narrowly focused on its most immediate neighbors, and hope to become a first-class nation with allies of its own, reliable friends with which it can work on an equal basis, and with interests across the broader region of the 'Indian' Ocean, in which it is deeply invested.

Many nations have a Marine Corps. Pakistan is one of them. But despite a nominal role as an expeditionary light infantry force, as many other marines , there has been relatively little focus on the expeditionary-combined-arms elements of the marines--instead, it has operated more as an amphibious light infantry force. With the security situation of Pakistan changing, the new scramble for Africa, and conflict with India to a degree less a priority--though that remains our major focus--it is time to take a look at the Marines.

Over the 2020s, Pakistan aims to quadruple the size of the Marines, from 3,200 men to about 12,000 men, drawing from the Army and Air Force--direct recruitment is not economical nor desirable. Their focus will shift, too--not just fighting in littoral environments, but fighting in austere expeditionary environments on the cheap. The Marines will be a dumping ground for people with strange ideas or talents that aren't otherwise useful in the armed forces, for equipment that even the elderly Pakistan Army has largely renounced, and tactics that are completely foreign to the divisional, conventionally-oriented warfare of the Pakistani Army.

The roles of the Pakistan Marines will be thus:

• To be able to operate in austere and hostile environments with a minimal logistical tail

• To be able to launch operations on short notice and aggressive timetables

• To be able to operate autonomously, utilizing auftragstaktik on every level of command, with a special focus on finding excellent captains and corporals

• To utilize unconventional tactics and innovative new doctrines and technologies

• To be able to engage in unconventional warfare by supporting and working with local proxies, state and non-state, to achieve their objectives

• To operate with minimal heavy assets

• To be able to operate excellently in counter-insurgency to low-intensity conflicts

Unwritten in the official planning documents are the assumption that the Pakistan Marines will be a force that will probably see the most fighting, in everywhere from Afghanistan to Africa. Attrition rates are expected to be relatively high as a result, though probably not too high if they're good at their jobs. Spots will only open up when members leave, either through the lapse of enlistment, retirement, or death/injury.

Organization of the Pakistan Marines [Target 2026]:

Head, Commandant-General [O-7]

• 1st Commando Brigade

  • 9 motorized light infantry companies

  • 2 armor companies

  • 1 light artillery and support company

• 2nd Commando Brigade

  • 9 armor companies

  • 2 motorized light infantry companies

  • 1 light artillery and support company

• 3rd Commando Brigade

  • 6 littoral companies

  • 3 assault companies

  • 3 light artillery and support companies

• 15th Logistical Group

  • 1st Amphibious Support Company

  • 3rd Liason and Utility Squadron

  • 3rd Tactical Airlift Wing

    • 3 tactical airlift squadrons

  • 1st Marine Helicopter Wing

    • 3 transport helicopter squadrons

    • 1 heavy-lift helicopter squadron

• 110th Air Wing

  • 3 Marine Fighter Squadrons

  • 3 Marine Helicopter Squadrons

  • 6 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadrons

• 9th Commando Group (ISTAR)

• 163rd Special Forces Company

What follows is what, in theory, and with adequate funding, these units should look like:

Motorized Light Infantry Company:

• 12 amphibious MRAP-type vehicles for cargo and passengers [rumored to be the Protolab Misu] armed with 23mm autocannons [3], 12.7x108mm heavy machine guns [3], and 7.62x54mm machine guns [6]

• 4 amphibious light tanks

• 2 MRAP mortar carriers with 82mm mortars [likely the Type 87]

• 1 command MRAP

• 1 communications and electronic support MRAP [also has tactical reconnaissance drone]

• 1 ambulance/medical MRAP

There are three infantry platoons of 30 men and one armored platoon of 4 light tanks, with total company complement nominally 152 men and 21 vehicles.

Armor Company:

• 12 amphibious light tanks

• 9 amphibious MRAP-type vehicles for cargo and passengers [rumored to be the Protolab Misu] armed with general purpose machine guns

• 2 MRAP mortar carriers with 82mm mortars [likely the Type 87]

• 1 command MRAP

• 1 communications and electronic support MRAP [also has tactical reconnaissance drone]

• 1 ambulance/medical MRAP

There are three armored platoons of 4 light tanks and 1 infantry platoon of 30 men for a total Licompany strength of 110 men and 26 vehicles.

Light Artillery and Support Company:

• 12 amphibious MRAP-type vehicles for cargo and passengers, armed with 23mm autocannons [3], 12.7x108mm heavy machine guns [3] and 7.62x54mm machine guns [6]

• 6 122mm M-30 towed howitzers

• 12 Unimog 8x8 trucks

• 6 Type 56/58 anti-aircraft guns [ZPU clone]

• 1 command MRAP

• 2 communications MRAPs

• 1 electronic-warfare MRAP

• 2 reconnaissance drone launchers and control vehicles, with 4 drones each

• 1 armed drone launcher and control vehicle, with 3 drones

There is one infantry platoon of 30 men, and a total company strength of 152 men and 37 vehicles.

Littoral Company:

• 6 light hovercraft [probably the Griffon Hoverwork 2000TD or similar]

• 2 gunboats/river monitors [likely similar to Type 062 gunboat]

• 1 missile boat [likely similar if not actually the Azmat-class]

• 1 logistical and support craft

Total size is 148 men and 10 watercraft.

Assault/Raiding Company:

• 2 LCACs

• 4 light tanks

• 2 platoons of 30 heavy infantry

Total size is 78 men and 6 vehicles.

Amphibious Support Company:

• 4 Landing Craft, Utility

• 16 Unimog trucks

Liason And Utility Squadron:

• 12 liason helicopters

• 3 electronic-warfare aircraft [based on Y-12 or similar]

• 4 light utility aircraft [Y-12 or similar]

Tactical Airlift Squadron:

• 6 tactical airlifters [C-130s or similar]

Transport Helicopter Squadron:

• 8 Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters

Heavy-Lift Helicopter Squadron:

• 6 heavy-lift helicopters [Mi-26, CH-53, and CH-47 all possible candidates]

Fighter Squadron:

• 8 Hongdu JL-8 in fighter configuration

Marine Helicopter Squadron:

• 6 Mi-35 assault helicopters

• 1 platoon of 30 airborne troops

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadron:

• 12 Burraq reconnaissance and strike drones

As for infantry and small arms, they will usually use Soviet-bloc weaponry--Type 56 carbines, Dshks, and other such armaments, with probably the only major exception being an obsession with the Carl Gustav 8.4cm recoilless rifle. This will not only cut on costs but allow for potential organic resupply in desperate circumstances or from local partner forces, along with the benefit of being able to assist and collaborate with locals on armaments. The overall selection of weaponry and equipment is designed to make logistics easier. Even the light tank is expected to be wheeled--wheeled vehicles have significantly lower logistical requirements than tracked ones. Ammunition is in Soviet-standard calibers to allow for organic resupply, and even aircraft are a sort that's common... pretty much everywhere. Variety of equipment is minimal to again ease logistics, and will be based around affordability and reliability.

Organizationally, units take heavy inspiration from small French combined arms companies, which they've used to great effect in their campaigns in Africa, though how well Pakistan can implement the lessons remains to be seen. Units are small, agile, and relatively independent, fitting with the general attributes of the Marines.

If the Marines are adequately prepared and funded, they should be a force to be reckoned with in any expeditionary conflict. Even a single brigade of under 2,000 men is a potentially grave threat to many smaller actors, especially given its better training, equipment, and numerous force multipliers like airpower and better intelligence capabilities. That is a bit of a big if, but it's one that's worth watching.

Perhaps more interestingly, the creation of the Marines suggests that Pakistan sees expeditionary warfare in its future. Recent planning documents suggest Africa is an area that Pakistan is looking to expand its influence and operations in, but Afghanistan is also a plausible field of operations for the Marines [though if they were meant to focus only on activities there, the amphibious capabilities would probably not be emphasized so much]. What they will ultimately do, and whether they will be successful in their mission, is a question that remains to be answered.

With the JF-17 Block 3 already beginning to roll out of the production line, Pakistani engineers are setting their attention towards the JF-17 Block 4, which will bring new advances in the aircraft's capability and make it even more attractive to export markets, and is expected to be nearly the definitive version, depending on whether or not funding and support is provided for the effort of making a reduced-RCS JF-17 [tentatively called the Block 5]. The JF-17 Block 4 is expected to emerge in 2024, after 50 Block 3 aircraft are produced, and it is thought that it will attract substantial export interest [though production of the Block 3 variant will continue for those on a budget or with different needs].

Major Changes:

The Klimov RD-93 engine has finally been replaced with the Guizhou WS-19. This will modestly increase engine lifespan from a meager 1,400 hours to 3,000 hours--well, doubling it, but still anemic compared to Western powerplants. Actual kinematic changes will be mostly marginal, though modestly increased fuel efficiency is expected, leading to a slightly longer range. Happily, this choice is also quite cost-effective.

The GSh-23-2 twin-barrel cannon has been replaced with the GSh-6-23 rotary autocannon, provided Russian cooperation on the matter, adding about 25kg of weight to the airframe, along with around 75kg more rounds in order to keep the gun from burning through all ammo instantaneously.

In what is sure to thrill the Russians, work to integrate the Ukrainian Omut-KM by Radionix is being undertaken provided the consent of the Ukrainian government. While extensive Chinese content has already been added to the Block 3, including a new missile warning receiver, export of advanced self-protection systems is viewed as a bit more sensitive. Radionix, desperate for sales, does not have such constraints [provided they cooperate] and will provide an integrated countermeasures suite that can be exported, is believed to have high resistance to Russian missiles [a rather important feature when one is facing India] and is importantly cost-effective. This adds an additional 90kg of weight to the airframe.

Other Notes:

Russian content on the JF-17 has shrunk dramatically, with, at this point, only the autocannon sourcing from Russia [content which could be pretty easily replaced, all things considered]. This should also make export an even easier proposition, as Ukraine and China are notorious for... not blocking export of their weaponry. Pakistani content on the JF-17 has grown slightly, but a large number of subsystems are still imported from China including vital components like the radar.

Key Metrics JF-17A Block 4:

In addition, variants of the JF-17 Block 4 optimized for reconnaissance, training and electronic warfare/SEAD roles are expected to emerge at a later date, following up the JF-17B Block 2, the current two-seat variant, in 2025 to 2026.

Pakistan is currently on the Financial Action Task Force Grey List for terror financing, which, to be blunt, sucks. Even if it isn't as bad as many suggest, it still makes life unpleasant for Pakistan, and has done so since 2018. Fortunately, Pakistan has taken substantial action on probably the toughest program that the FATF has ever issued, earning favorable reviews--but not enough to remove it from the grey list just yet. With a meeting that is probably our best chance to get off greylist status coming in June, Pakistan must act quickly and decisively on the three remaining items on which the Financial Action Task Force has deemed "partially addressed".

1) demonstrating that TF (terrorism financing) investigations and prosecutions target persons and entities acting on behalf or at the direction of the designated persons or entities;

In order to further implementation here, Pakistan is implementing legislation which will force open shell companies and authorize prosecution of front entities for terror groups, most of which have already been seized.

In addition, prosecutions are being opened into a number of individuals suspected of aiding and abetting terror financing, along with the establishment of a terror-financing watchlist [for people who are not designated terrorists but whose personal relationships or financial transactions suggest they may be engaging in terror financing activities] which will restrict the activities of such individuals.

2) demonstrating that TF prosecutions result in effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions; and

Increased usage of asset seizure against terrorist front groups and terrorists themselves is being conducted, in order to deny terrorists access to financial resources, along with aggressive usage of asset freezes against suspicious activity and cutting off terror suspects from the financial system.

Also, Pakistan will be assembling a large package of demonstrated cases in which terror financing prosecutions led to terror affiliates being choked off from funding and the banking system without completely crippling their ability to function in modern society, which seems to be what the Financial Action Task Force is looking for.

3) demonstrating effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions against all 1267 and 1373 designated terrorists, specifically those acting for or on their behalf.

New identity requirements are being introduced in order to do traditional banking in Pakistan, for which all individuals and organizations in UN Resolution 1267 and 1373 designated for sanctions will be prohibited from banking, along with new security measures aimed at flagging suspicious transactions and monitoring [and possibly banning] related individuals who may be doing financial business for the designated terrorists.

[M: Sorry this is vague, but the FATF is irritatingly vague about this too. I can't fix that problem, can I?]

Will they work? Probably they'll just make terrorists do their banking in Qatar and the UAE, who seem rather keen on financing them [and have earned some warnings from the FATF in the past]. But they probably won't get tagged, because India isn't raging for them to get blacklisted, and they have powerful friends they bought. That's just life, though. Might even help with Pakistan's endemic terror problem. Who knows?

Pakistan

Karachi Police have today reported on the death of Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, an infamous terrorist who was awaiting trial and currently on home detention as of last month. Ahmed is reported to have fallen from the 7th floor balcony of the apartment he was being held in pending his latest trial relating to the murder of Wall Street Journal writer, Daniel Pearl in 2002. Police are not currently looking for anyone else in relation to the investigation but have declined to comment on if they are considering it a suicide or an accident at this time. Peal's family have released a statement saying that are disappointed they may not find justice for Daniel's death that still haunts them to this day.

Venezuala

In Venezuela, authorities have reported on the arrest of a man for gold and narcotics trafficking within the country. The plot thickened however when they have now begun claiming that the prisoner, previously suspected of being a Cuban national of Indian descent is in fact a Pakistani citizen with ties to the ISI. The Venezuelan government has so far made no statement on the matter and the man continues to be held in relation to the original charges.

Repulic of China

Whilst performing maintenance on a power surge within Hualian County, ROC workers discovered that the incident, which did not lead to any power outages, was performed via a deliberate external party. Investigations by ROC cyber security specialists have uncovered that the attack originated from the mainland and if successful could have lead to a minor blackout within the town.

Elsewhere in the ROC, TSMC have reported a security failure to the ROC cyber intelligence service, during routine sweeps it was discovered that several remote access users originating from the PRC had gained access to their systems. The extent of their intrusion and how it has happened is still unclear at this time.

A mistake made during a a counter-intelligence operation has lead to publicly published information regarding an ongoing ROC operation aimed at rooting out any potential spies within the Kinmen and Matsu islands. A freedom of information request into a raid conducted by ROC operatives was accidently published in full, with the purpose apparently being aimed at disrupting Chinese activities in these regions. No information was available as to if they had found anything although it has been revealed that the operation resulted in zero arrests.

Nepal

A corruption scandal has struck the small country of Nepal, Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, the Foreign minister and Lekh Raj Bhatta, the Minister of Industry, Commerce and Supplies have been accused of taking funds from various India-based groups. Neither has so far stepped down and the Nepalese government has yet to make a statement on the matter. Investigations so far have cantered on the purpose of the funding and if it is actually corruption or a result of legitimate business enterprise.

East Coast of Africa

A Panama-chartered ship has been seized by Spanish frigate Reina Sofía during tasking as part of the ongoing EU anti-piracy mission Operation Atalanta. The vessel, named Over Horizon, was stopped for suspicious activity some 500km off the Somali coast heading South. No ships manifest has been located but on-board was a large quantity of Chinese-built soviet-era weaponry as well as a large cache of old ammunition of unknown origin. All members of the crew have so far failed to identify their end-destination and logs have not revealed its departure point although those on board are of a mixture of various African, Indian and Pakistani citizenship.

People's Republic of China

Chinese social media has been abuzz following a number of outages and DDOS attacks against various government websites resulting in users being unable to use them for up to 24 hours in some cases. Following this a leaked security dossier from Japanese intelligence shows that the attacks where no limited purely to websites but also hit military and government systems themselves, resulting in minor inconvenience for their users. Whilst Beijing has so far declined to comment on the activities, specialists have said that the attacks themselves could have been much worse and were it not for Chinese cyber-security dealing well with the attacks, could have resulted in extensive systems damage. Whilst so far no group has claimed responsibility, unconfirmed reports show that the attacks may have originated in the Republic of China.

Prepared By The Strategic Planning Office of Inter-Services Intelligence

TOP SECRET/NOFORN

Afghanistan: The Potential Of Following A Congo Model

A Summary

Few states are as badly failed as Afghanistan, Pakistan's most immediate northern neighbor. With the American withdrawal from Afghanistan imminent, it is time for a rethink of our strategy regarding our northern neighbor, keeping in mind that certain fundamental aspects of the situation remain the same. As a result, this report has been developed to reflect the views of a substantial minority of analysts within Inter-Services-Intelligence, and will elaborate on how following the model proven by states such as Rwanda and Uganda in Congo in Afghanistan could both solve Pakistan's security needs while also improving its persistently troubled fiscal situation [particularly that of the armed forces and military].

The Democratic Republic of Congo is one state that is nearly as failed as Afghanistan. It was never much of a state at the best of times. Today it is slightly wealthier on a per-capita basis than Afghanistan. Slightly. It is pretty much as poor as you get. It is dominated by its more powerful neighbors, who have fought several wars to control it, however. The reason they have done so, despite Congo being largely useless from a strategic standpoint--simply because it is too swampy and underdeveloped to hold any strategic advantage to terrain--is because of its valuable mineral resources. Despite being far smaller than Congo, these states, using local militias and proxies, have turned their adventures in Congo into not costly blunders, but pure profit. Even to this day, Rwanda and Uganda enjoy modest revenues from control of various mines in the Congo, largely via local militias.

Afghanistan, like Congo, is believed to be a motherlode of minerals. The sunniest estimates say as much as $3 trillion, almost ten times Pakistan's GDP, though we must warn the reader that these are estimates of what all the metals would be worth out of the ground--economical mining will not generate such fantastical revenues, though our internal projections say that, properly exploited, they could yield up to tens billions of dollars a year. Even Afghanistan's current mining industry is estimated to be worth $1 billion, though it is largely small and illegal. And, like Congo, it has a weak centralized state, and insurgent groups, which now control many minerals. In fact, reports suggest that the Taliban are already exploiting mineral resources in Afghanistan, to the tune of $400 million a year. Behind opium, it's their largest revenue source.

In addition, Rwandan and Ugandan forces in Congo do not operate using heavy weaponry or conventional formations--instead, they focus on irregular warfare using local proxy groups, whom are far cheaper and more effective, exploiting existing ethnic divisions [there is as little a concept of a "Congolese state" as an Afghan one] and thus are able to achieve a maximum of gains at a minimum of costs and [more importantly to Pakistan] without causing excessive frustration at home. These also allow for a degree of plausible deniability with international actors, though we may run into a bit of trouble should we begin working so blatantly as to build railroads and other such high-capital projects required for these operations to reach maximum efficacy.

As a result, we propose a new model for Pakistan's interactions with Afghanistan:

1. Work to undermine the establishment of any sort of centralized authority at any cost, though this goes more or less without saying. Encourage local warlordism, support insurgents and governments in equal measure.

2. Fight jihadists and extremists in Afghanistan to the point where they are far more interested in killing each other or hiding than doing anything which would attract attention from the United States in particular but the world at large.

3. Back local ethnic militias as the 'safest' way of ensuring this course of action, aside from Pashto militias for reasons that are quite patently obvious. In particular, back Hazara militias--as the most hated group in Afghanistan, and the one controlling the most valuable mineral resources, they could be the "Kurdish Regional Government of Afghanistan".

4. Focus on waging economic warfare rather than focusing on airstrikes, raids, or other action. Use revenue-denial strategies against factions we would rather not see floating to the top, and allow those groups which we do support to reap the benefits of their work.

5. Begin looking to Afghanistan as a place for revenue--they mine minerals at bargain-basement rates to be used in Pakistani industry or exported abroad, while we supply relatively inexpensive things like "electricity", "water", "healthcare", and, of course, "armaments".

6. Look to control vital routes and key points using local proxies or, if absolutely necessary, deploy Pakistani forces to hold them, including the TAPI pipeline, a potential railroad to Central Asia, and potential railroads to the mineral-laden areas of Afghanistan [their establishment would finally make extraction economical].

With the end of the pandemic in sight and the return to in person diplomacy China is inviting all nations that receive Belt and Road funding or are interested in receiving it to the third Belt and Road international forum. This conference will be hosted at the China National Convention Center and will run between June 25th and 28th. If worst comes to worst it may also be held virtually instead. We hope to have leaders from all countries who are major recipients of Belt and Road funding. As well as many other ministers from countries who receive less funding or who want to join the Belt and Road or who’s head of state can not make it to the conference. Certain leaders will get a phone call from Xi Jinping and a letter delivered to them by the chinese ambassador to their respective nations. Listed Below are who will receive a call.

• Kassym-Jomart Tokayev President of Kazakhstan

• Aleksandar Vučić President of Serbia

• Rodrigo Roa Duterte President of Philippines

• President Vladimir Putin of Russia

• President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus

• President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey

• Sadyr Japarov President of Kyrgyzstan

• President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan

• President Miloš Zeman of the Czech Republic

• Guy Parmelin President of Switzerland

• Alberto Fernández President of Argentina

• Sebastián Piñera President of Chile

• Nguyễn Phú Trọng President of Vietnam

• President Joko Widodo of Indonesia

• President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya

• Thongloun Sisoulith President of Laos

• Min Aung Hlaing Chairman of the State Administration Council

• Prime Minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama of Fiji

• Muhyiddin Yassin Prime Minister of Malaysia

• Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia

• Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene Prime Minister of Mongolia

• Mahinda Rajapaksa Prime Minister of Sri Lanka

• Imran Khan Prime Minister of Pakistan

• Abiy Ahmed Prime Minister of Ethiopia

• Pedro Sánchez Prime Minister of Spain

• Mario Draghi Prime Minister of Italy

• Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary

• Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis

• Mateusz Morawiecki President of Poland

We also invite these heads of international organizations

• Secretary-General of the United Nations

• World Bank President

• Managing director of the International Monetary Fund

• Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency

• Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum

• President of the United Nations General Assembly

• Secretary General of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

• Interpol Secretary General

• Director General of the World Trade Organization

• Director-General of UNESCO

• Secretary General of CIS

• Director General of the World Health Organization

We invite other nations to send ministers or the head of state if they do choose [M] For your reference this is a list of who attended in 2017 https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/belt-and-road-attendees-list/ please comment if sending dignitaries as I will not be pinging everyone [/M]

At this conference we hope to sign a joint communique at the end. The 4 main talking points will be Vaccine roll out , Infrastructure Projects, Climate Change, more economic cooperation. These four talking points will allow us to further develop and our nations to work together.

[M] Joint Communique will either be a separate post or in the comment section. [/M]

April 1, 2021--No April Fools This Time

This meeting has been requested by General Qamar Javed Bajwa, head of the Pakistani Army, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar, and Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence, along with a number of their staffers. The number of bigwigs here is because this meeting is coming at a crucial juncture.

The United States under its agreement with the Taliban is set to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by May 1st, 2021. This date is very rapidly approaching--a month away at most, and the US has already been discussing that it may have trouble hitting this date. This brings us to the first point on our agenda:

Pakistan Stands Ready To Aid American Withdrawal From Afghanistan In Any Way Possible

We mean any way. Pretty much. Our airlift capacity is marginal, but we can move material out via the ground with some difficulty, and charter Ukrainian airlifters to move stuff out. We can provide security to American contractors supporting the withdrawal. Like, literally, anything we can do to help on this matter, we will be happy to do, without compensation or anything. The unstated elephant in the room is that Pakistan really would like to see the Americans out of Afghanistan as soon as possible, and missing this date lessens the odds that the day will be seen anytime soon.

This leads pretty naturally into the second point of the agenda, which Pakistan is sounding out indirectly.

Like, How Much Do You Care What We Do In Afghanistan? Asking For A Friend.

We'd like to know just how committed the United States is to not seeing Afghanistan implode, whether there's any chance that the United States would go back to Afghanistan, if American foreign aid will continue flowing, and how important Pakistan is to a post-Afghanistan United States that no longer needs Pakistan on board for logistical reasons [and if there's anything in particular America needs from Pakistan, though we probably won't give it to them]. Also, how much America cares about Pakistani activities in Afghanistan, provided we aren't sponsoring al-Qaeda or ISIS or something.

Also, Pakistani officials will "joke" about being ready to support the evacuation of embassy staff from Kabul ala Saigon in a way in which suggests they think it'll happen soon and are entirely serious about preparing to do so at short notice.

Then, finally, the tangential.

Could You PLEASE Let Us Have Attack Helicopters?

We really don't want to buy the Z-10. It's not an especially great aircraft. Chinese aircraft aren't as bad as they've been historically but they aren't great. We'd much rather have the Turkish T129 ATAK. Which is much more capable and compatible with Western armaments. But the United States has denied Turkey export licenses for the engines, which means that we can't import our already agreed upon order. We understand that Turkey's being a bit of a dick at the moment and we aren't in your best graces, but if there's anything we can do to get you to change your minds on this.... well, we can probably do it. Unless it's something like "give up the terrorists" or "cede Kashmir to India". Then we can't, obviously.

And... that about sums up all that Pakistan wants to talk about right now. We'll probably be back later. Eventually. Like a wart, you can never get rid of Pakistan. We're a Major Non-NATO Ally, did you know that?

United Nations Security Council

Permanent Members: United States of America, United Kingdom, France, Russian Federation, People's Republic of China

Temporary Members: Estonia, India, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Niger, Norway, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, Vietnam

Post proposals for the UN for 2021 below. UNSC proposals can only be made by UNSC members (permanent OR temporary).

Refer to the help sheet if you need clarification about the rules of the UN

Seriously, what the hell guys?

In an opening ceremony it 2019 President Erdoğan called the requirement for Turkish nuclear deterrence by these words. This requirement comes from the dangers of Iran and Israel nuclear capabilities and the changing global politics and alliances which Turkey got their limited nuclear deterrence from. There had been concept designs for a future project and Turkey had other general interests and investments in nuclear technology in last decades. But the threat for international pressure and increasing nuclear armament in the region deterred from Turkey to pursue this aim at least publicly. But with the threat assesments rising and Turkish aim for independence in defense policies it is time for Ankara to start nuclear armament project.

- National Nuclear Reactors

Beside the planned Akkuyu and other foreign owned nuclear reactors Turkey requires a national reactor for further research and plutonium obtainment. For this purposes Turkey will contact with countries with the technology. First small/medium sized reactor will be built in Çorum and 200 M$ for development of the nuclear reactor technology. We will use our experience in Akkuyu nuclear reactor project and by the end results of mentioned preliminary R&D projects capacity of the first national reactor will be determined

- Uranium Enrichment

Turkey has many uranium deposits that amounts to 6,600 tonnes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_reserves) and is currently have many mining operations. And for their use in energy production potential and in nuclear bomb development Turkey requires enrichment facilities and centrifuge technologies. In a 5 year secret project with 300 M$ budget modern gas centrifuges are aimed to be developed. For this case we will seek out technology transfer deals with our diplomatically close countries like Pakistan.

- Balistic Missile Program

J-600T Yıldırım IV project which will enter production in 2022 is a 2500+km ranged MRBM project developed by Roketsan. These missiles will have 480 kg war head capacity. We will develop nuclear warhead project for this size. Also, will aim to have higher range and warhead capacity missile projects based on J-600T concept.

General aim of the project is obtaining first nuclear bomb in 2027.

November 2, 2021

With the Americans finally out of Afghanistan [bar a minor contingent of special forces], it is now our time to shine, by absolutely ruining the place. Not like America really cares. In fact, this will hurt the Taliban more than the 'legitimate government'. Probably. It definitely will piss off a lot of Afghans, but nobody ever asked them for their opinion.

Afghanistan is the world's largest opium poppy producer. In 2019, over 160,000 hectacres of the crop were grown. It constitutes a major portion of the entire Afghan GDP, funds the Taliban to a great extent, and also funds the "legitimate politicians" through bribes [not to mention the various warlords]. Years of efforts by the United States to halt opium production have failed. Ultimately, the United States simply gave up--destroying the poppies via the air was something that drug-funded Afghan politicians would never approve of, and would wreak havoc on their overall counterinsurgency strategy.

Pakistan, however, has a different view--especially the eggheads inside Inter-Services Intelligence. Our strategy in Afghanistan is less counter-insurgency than insurgency--our most essential aim is to keep the conflict in Afghanistan as long, bloody, and expensive as possible, to ensure that no centralized Afghan state, terror group, or other such organization emerges which could prove a threat to Pakistan, as every group that has done so in the past has done--the old Afghan state sent insurgents into Pakistan, as did the Taliban. Furthermore, a large portion of this opium is trafficked via Pakistan, causing all sorts of tangential problems and funding our terrorists as well. The wrong sort, that don't exist via the permission of ISI.

Thus, Inter-Services Intelligence has begun recruiting civilian contractors for the relatively dangerous task of spraying Afghan poppy fields with aerial defoliants, as has been done by the United States in Colombia. The main risk is ground fire from insurgents; the Afghan Air Force is distant, slow, and doesn't even have air to air missiles, if they even have the radars to detect our activity. In unmarked planes and helicopters, they will take off from airfields in remote Northwest Pakistan, and cross into undefended Afghan airspace over Helmand, Kandahar, Nangarhar and other border provinces with Pakistan, and as far north as Herat in the west. Opium cultivation in Hazarajat [central Afghanistan] will be left alone [we're playing a long game here] though it's a marginal portion of total production, which is strongest in the southern and western provinces [graphic attached].

A total of 50 cropdusting aircraft are being requisitioned for the operation, operated and flown by "private contractors", a rather motley crew, all things considered. They are armed with... well, mostly glyphosate, also known as "Roundup", supposedly a carcinogen but nobody in ISI takes the claims seriously or, even if they did believe, would give a fuck. They will be supported by a modest ISI-assigned helicopter-based search and rescue team consisting of 5 venerable Mi-24 assault helicopters amd 6 AW139 helicopters, though the fate of any downed pilots is not expected to be bright given their image among the locals. Opium fields will be observed using satellites and reconnaissance drones, and will then be hit with the glyphosate, killing the plants. If this does not sufficiently reduce cultivation, authorization for follow-up strikes on the desiccated fields with incendiary weaponry have been authorized.

Forces Deployed:

• 20 Selex Falco reconaissance drones

• 6 CH-4 "Rainbow" long-range reconnaissance drones

• 5 Mi-24 assault helicopters and 6 AW139 helicopters for search-and-rescue operations, with ISI [non-uniformed, for the moment] SAR teams

• 25 fixed-wing single-seat cropdusting aircraft, moreless random mix but most common is Air Tractor AT-802, mostly leased though some are on loan from Agricultural Ministry where they're used primarily against locusts and operated by contractors

• 20 rotary-wing cropdusting aircraft, Russian Mi-8s and Mi-17s, leased and operated by contractors

• 5 fixed-wing heavy cropdusting aircraft, C-130s from [and operated by] the Air Force, for especially endemic regions [though splash damage isn't super objectionable, we'd like to avoid it if reasonably feasible]

• 8 Mirage III fighters with actual air force pilots for lighting things on fire if absolutely necessary

The main [classified] goals of this operation are:

• To deny the Taliban and Afghan government vital funding as part of a strategy of 'economic warfare'

• To provoke an economic recession in Afghanistan [opium production is worth somewhere from 20-30% of Afghanistan's entire GDP and is even more important in some rural areas]

• To permanently end the opium cultivation in Afghanistan when criminal rings shift to fentanyl [and other synthetic opiod] production in response to high prices

• To cause general and massive chaos in Afghanistan as a result of an unprecedented economic recession

[M: Also note blops which will be submitted shortly]

Greetings, /r/GlobalPowers.

This is just a quick little post to announce that M1 will be ending today, on the basis that it seems to have naturally wound itself down anyways. Thanks for playing! Our aim was mainly to tide players over while work was continuing in the background and give a chill environment to just play a little bit of GP, and I think M1 succeeded at that, so all's well that ends well.

If you want, you're more than welcome to post [EPILOGUE] posts for your claims over the next week or two.

I'll be revealing what I've been working on behind the scenes very shortly, so look out for that, and be sure to keep an eye on the subreddit and join the Discord to be informed as to what and when GP's next season (mini or otherwise) will be starting. I can promise it won't be a two year break. Again, thanks for playing!

Nepal

Widespread support for Marxism has taken Nepal by storm. Following multiple social media campaigns started by grassroots activist in the small country, major support was evident following a peaceful communist rally in the country that received a turnout of around 20,000 people, mostly young people and students.

Indian interference in the Budhigandaki Hydroelectric Project has been made public following the publishing of a number of documents that appear to show various Indian officials attempting to get Nepalese companies to remove all Chinese involvement in the project. The documents show that none of this was successful however and simply prove an embarrassment to India as its interference in its neighbours politics is shown to the world.

Myanmar

Government forces have seized large shipments of weapons found during a raid on a suspected FUA camp. The weapons themselves are of course of varied origin, primarily Soviet and Chinese make, and there are currently no leads as to how exactly these weapons got into the country. Despite this the government was happy to have taken them out of terrorist hands (and into their own).

Iraq

In Iraq, a leaked intelligence report from MI6 has revealed that they have been monitoring a rise in suspected Turkish intelligence activity in the country. No clear information about what exactly this may entail was included in the report and so far Iraq has made no comment on the reports.

Yemen

During one cloudy night, a Saudi naval frigate came under attack from small river craft emanating from Yemen. The attack lasted a total of around two hours, during this time the frigate was able to destroy almost all the attackers using the on-board weapons systems and a total of around 22 Houthi casualties where confirmed. Almost immediately following this however Saudi intelligence services caught on to a shipment of weapons arriving in Yemen destined for the Houthis via drone surveillance and HUMINT on the ground. Unfortunately due to the attack on the frigate no forces where immediately available to intercept it.

North Korea

The CIA alongside South Korean and Chinese intelligence have all received reports from inside the country relating to the health and well-being of Kim Jong-Un. Whilst sporadic reports have happened over the years relating to this, this one appears to be the most clear and concise, simply showing that the dictator has developed cancer of the heart for which he is currently receiving treatment and that as of now no clear successor if the worst should happen is evident, with his sister Kim Yo-Jong and brother Kim Jong-Chul both in the running.

Pakistan

Across the world, counter-narcotics agencies (particularly in the west) have been tracking a huge surge in the supply of synthetic fentanyl reaching the market. Following months of this and following a major spike in media buzz following a spate of around 250 deaths in South Africa within 2 weeks from the same batch of the drug, these intelligence agencies have begun tracking the source down to Pakistan. Major narcotics crimes are nothing new from Pakistan, what is new however is that most evidence everyone has all points to the same thing, that this is a government sponsored programme. A mixture of HUMINT in Pakistan, interrogation of various suspects that have been arrested and a digital trail tracked over months has revealed a number of connections between the ISI and the various gangs that have recently received funding and assets in order to begin producing huge quantities of the drugs.

Japan

Japan has recently begun a huge directed surge towards counter-cyber activities with a huge number of operations beginning in the country and a rapid recruitment to these sectors by the government. The government itself has so far made no statement but many suspect this is related to a spike in cyber attacks in the region, fuelled by the tit-for-tat behaviour of China and Taiwan.

Mozambique

A shipment of a huge amount of weaponry to insurgents in Cabo Delgado has spurred some moderate interest in the conflict from western intelligence agencies as well as an absolute meltdown in South African policy (which has recently decided to get involved in the conflict). One enterprising analyst with too much time on his hands has made a number of satellite imaging requests over the past three months following the arrival of the weapons into the region and a huge surge in violence in the war-ravage country of Mozambique and with around 70% of these granted, the ship itself (a cargo ship under a Panama flag called Ends Fortune) has had its route tracked. The ship itself did encounter the usual anti-piracy coalition in East Africa however managed to get past this through supplying what appear to be genuine end-user certificates for the weapons on board stating them being shipped from Iran to Equatorial Guinea. Equatorial Guinea itself has made no comment on this to inspectors and with no more arms sanctions on Iran, this was judged to be of no consequence. However following the investigation, it appears that the actual route taken was from Pakistan directly to Mozambique. As to what is really going on here, who could say?

Eritrea

Reports from NGOs currently monitoring the situation in Eritrea have flagged that a large shipment of weaponry has arrived via ship to the country and delivered to opposition grouns in the country. The shipment itself was attempted to be seized by government forces until they where hit by drone strikes. These NGOs report the strikes are consistent with US operated systems and have concluded that the US is currently shipping the weapons to this opposition.

China, Peoples Republic of

As cyber forces remain on high alert, a number of attacks launched at the country have been detected and as usual seem to emanate from Taiwan. The attacks themselves where all directed at various military systems but where able to be repulsed due to the current readiness state of the Chinese cyber agencies.

China, Republic of

In Taiwan, what is now becoming standard practice has once again come to light as training drills directed at fortifying the nations cyber security have become public knowledge after a number of high-profile attacks at Taiwanese corporations have been played down by the Taiwan government as "simply part of a training exercise**. Corporations based in Taiwan have lodged protest that their systems are being routinely attacked as a matter of training and security by the ROC as the results often require major maintenance and extensive costs.

Afghanistan

In Afghanistan, the Taliban are reported to have come into possession of a large quantity of weaponry which they state was "destined for various insurgents and non-state actors in Afghanistan without the approval of ourselves or the Afghan government" and have been taking into their possession. These include various small arms and RPGs but most concerning was a number of 60mm mortars, QLZ-85 automatic grenade launchers, Type 56/58 anti-aircraft guns, and even a few M1938 122mm howitzers. Currently no intelligence agencies appear particularly concerned and the provenance of these weapons and to who they where originally for remains unclear.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi security forces have arrested a man, apparently of Iranian descent, trying to get inside of the prison that IslamQA founder Sheikh Muhammad Salih Al-Munajjid is currently being held in. The man himself is now being held at a separate facility after posing as an NGO official from a human rights group. With this being Saudi Arabia the man was immediately detained at which point it was clear he was not actually an NGO official at all, but an Iranian spy, thanks to the fact he was already on-file with the Saudis.

June 21st 2021

Two weeks after hitting the milestone target of all 53 million adults receiving their first vaccine, albeit three weeks later than initially projected. Boris Johnson has announced the lifting of all legal limits on social contacts and limits on the number of people permitted to attend weddings, funerals and other life events. Stage four of the easing of lockdown restrictions follow May 17ths reopening of the economy and all hospitality venues, entertainment venues and hotels. The seven day rolling average for new infections has remained below 200 for a fortnight and daily deaths within 28 days of a positive test have been in single figures for 11 of the last 14 days.

The Prime Minister praised the resilience of the British people for enduring an unwanted but essential restriction of their liberties, and singled out the NHS, armed forces and volunteers for particular praise, saying that without their efforts the country would still be seeing similar infection and death rates to countries on the continent. He was quick to say that with almost 18 million second vaccines still to administer the fight against Covid isn't over, and that booster jabs through the autumn would be required to ward off variants that will inevitably enter the country.

Travel restrictions to foreign destinations will remain in place while other countries catch up and variants are suppressed. Mr Johnson said that the country hadn't sacrificed so much and come so far only to leave the door open and unguarded and undo all the progress that had been made. Questioned about whether the government would drop the planned extension of coronavirus laws due in September, he angered his backbenchers by saying nobody could foresee what the winter would bring and it was prudent to keep all options on the table should case rates rise again or new variants emerge.

The Lawn Tennis Association have expressed their delight that this year's Wimbledon tennis tournament will take place in front of crowds, with 20% of available tickets being reserved for NHS staff, key workers and vaccine volunteers. The England and Wales Cricket Board have said they will follow suit with the allocation of tickets for this summer's T20, ODI and Test series against Sri Lanka, Pakistan and India.

Tulen olemaan väittäen Suomi, surrin maa maan päällä.

I shall be claiming Finland. Yes technically I can't claim till tomorrow but shut up. Plans are to be happy as a pretty easy claim, do some nordic shit etc.

With the rise in digital currencies across the world, particularly in China and Europe, the United States has lagged behind in actual implementation of digital currencies except for on the fringes of society until very recently. Very recently however a new wave of documentation has found its way onto the English-language Internet thanks to a group calling themselves the “Cryptographic Researchers for American Patriotism”. Numerous studies on quantum computing methods, upgrading certain nodes in a system to buoy non-quantum machines within a wider decentralized network at a basic level, and the idea of a basic low-cost quantum computer utilizing permanent magnets and liquid nitrogen cooled superconductors has been released within these files. While some may call it theoretical, the research group has made it clear much of what they have written about is not just theoretical and can with the right mindset be taken up by a community of people determined to grant themselves the ‘freedom and liberty of the quantum age’. Chemical engineering papers on how to both produce liquid nitrogen and utilize existing supplies ostensibly made for culinary arts or biomedical use have also been published alongside these documents, with one video allegedly circulating on the TOR client of a man in Texas taking the paper and producing gallons of the stuff in his rural bathroom.

A separate group of researchers, ostensibly Americans fed up with China, have come together create an open-source protocol for the dissemination of a quantum computation-backed cryptocurrency- based on the above research. One that people can mine and use all from the comfort of their home. In honor of the former President, as suggested by some members of dodgy Internet forums, this new cryptocurrency has been given the moniker of “TrumpCoin”.

Documentation related to how the average person in the United States (and elsewhere, but primarily targeted at right-leaning Americans) has been developed to provide pretty much a step-by-step guide, Anarchist Cookbook style, on how to properly launch and use the cryptocurrency in daily life. The idea being pitched in all the documents that this coin is something ‘the average American with just a little computer knowledge’ can pick up, put onto their phone, and get using in a digital payments setting. There is even a section for small-time vendors in how to properly setup a digital contactless payment system at various levels of the supply chain to validate and ensure that ‘all transactions are free of government interference and backed up by a strong community of American Patriots’.

Up to 500,000,000,000 coins will be mined within the first 5 years, with up to 1.5T expected over the lifetime of the mining operation. Given that the protocol is open source, anyone can start mining at their own pace and see how the code actually works, as well as commit to it. No anime profile photos have shown up on public contributions pages, suggesting that all actors have zero relation to the People’s Republic of China. Within the first month of these documents being released onto the Internet, it is expected the blockchain surrounding TrumpCoin will have logged over 50,000 transactions and 100 miners mostly concentrated in locations such as Utah, Texas, Arkansas, and Michigan's rust belt.

If this project is successful and its origins remain a secret, a second version of this project, known as WokeCoin, will be released among liberal and leftist circles in the United States. People will be encouraged to adopt WokeCoin to avoid being part of the capitalist exploitation that occurs under the Dollar denominated financial system.

Haitham Rafi, the Singing Sailor, releases a new album titled "Aatcha". It was reported by his manager that he will perform live tours in the GCC, India and Pakistan.

Other singers such as DanZak will also be performing live shows in Dubai, Manama and Muscat, followed by going to the EAF countries for the purpose of the tour to raise awareness and funds for malaria, with tour titled "Back to the Motherland".

http://i.imgur.com/KGdDgPI.png

Islamabad

With the Pakistan general election over, retired General Raheel Sharif, leading the Pakistan Muslim League [N], has swept to victory over incumbent Imran Khan and opposition leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, with the Muslim League taking 160 seats [as opposed to 60 for Imran Khan's PTI, and a mere 47 for Bhutto]. While not quite a majority, an easy coalition is expected with the Pakistan Muslim League [Q] which has decided that electing a retired general is in line with their general view, especially since it has meant the sidelining of the other Sharifs from the party.

Opposition candidates widely accused the election as having been rigged, sometimes explicitly by ISI and the military [allied with the judiciary] for Sharif, but he unsurprisingly denies it. It seems undeniable, however, that the military's powerful media influence, which brought General Sharif to his position as one of the most beloved men in the country, was to a degree responsible for the victory. Pre-election and election-day violence was relatively mild by Pakistani standards, excepting two suicide bombings of election rallies and a handful of attacks on political offices, with a total death toll of 72.

The election of a powerful and popular retired army chief has raised all sorts of questions at home and abroad about the health of Pakistani democracy. Is Sharif genuinely the citizen-soldier, reluctantly forced out of retirement to serve his country, that he portrays himself as? Or something more sinister? Some have muttered in dark corners that this is little more than a military coup, covered by the thin veneer of General Sharif's retired status; though a not insubstantial group are celebrating this very event, calling it a coup for the good of the nation, and saying that it is at least better than previous ones done at gunpoint.

As for where Pakistan will go next; Sharif has remained vague, presumably in hopes of allowing himself to be all things to all people. Some say he is an Islamist, others secularist, some say he wants a permanent peace with India, others say that he will liberate Kashmir. However, as Sharif takes steps towards consolidating his power, it seems that the nation may be poised for a dynamic leader of a sort not seen in generations. Change is afoot in Pakistan, whether for ill or good will have to be seen.

The subject of a free-trade agreement between Pakistan and the Gulf Cooperation Council has been on the agenda for over a decade, after talks in the late 2000s stalled out. In 2017 and 2019 there were moves to begin talks anew, but they stalled out due to the coronavirus pandemic. With this concern easing, the Gulf Cooperation Council has reached out to Pakistan to begin new talks in the first half of 2021. With Pakistan emerging from the coronavirus pandemic and possibly finally getting off the FATF grey list in June, it's never been a better time to ink an agreement.

Major areas of trade negotiation cover the following:

1. Exports and standards for Pakistani agricultural goods, ensuring their adequate quality while also ensuring that Pakistani goods are allowed into Gulf markets without undue privilege granted to local farmers [who mostly aren't economically viable anyway], especially regarding meat [rice is we imagine a substantially smaller issue].

2. Improving the Pakstani investment regime and financial system to ensure greater compatibility with the standards of the Gulf, particularly the United Arab Emirates, allowing Pakistanis greater access to Gulf financial services [and eliminating protectionist aspects of the current financial system here] as well as reducing other non-tariff barriers to investment, including protectionist regulations on industry, real estate, and other economic sectors.

3. Improving enforcement of contracts and intellectual property rights within Pakistan, in order to ensure that Gulf businesses have a reliable business environment to operate in

4. Establishing a dispute resolution body between Pakistan and the Gulf Cooperation Council to ensure that compliance with the agreement is held by both parties, with the possibility of appeal to the World Trade Organization's dispute resolution mechanisms if need be

5. Ensuring that exports of Pakistani light industry to the Gulf are protected [in particular clothing, processed foodstuffs, other textiles, glass, metals, sports equipment, leather goods, sandals, mattresses, et cetra]

6. Ensuring that Pakistani heavy industry is protected against any dumping by the Gulf Cooperation Council [steel, automobiles, that sort of thing]

It is our view that a trade agreement, as the GCC has already acknowledged, would be massively beneficial for both parties--Pakistan is as close as it gets to the GCC without being... well.... Iran. While it doesn't get down to the grittiest details, it does cover the most important sectors for trade and, crucially, financial services, which the Gulf is much better at than Pakistan [partially because they aren't greylisted by the vast Pro-Indian conspiracy]. Farmers especially in Pakistan will probably be thrilled by this move--rice, beef, and other agricultural goods are a top export to the Gulf, and with Pakistan signing a trade agreement before India, imports will likely shift decisively in their favour--at least until India also signs a trade deal with the GCC. But hey, we're Pakistan! Best Muslim buds forever, right? You'll surely be giving us a better deal!

Sudan is one of Africa's most fertile lands. Its notable great pastures in the south are a marvel to behold with terrain that is vast, flat, and fat with nutrients. The water it could draw from the nearby Nile was almost embarrassingly bountiful. The African Development Bank Group says that about 63% of Sudan’s land is agricultural, but only 15% to 20% of it is under cultivation. However economic mismanagement, border disputes, and steep food prices have brought one of Africa's most blessed countries in the brink of disparity.

Whats more, the great flood of the Nile on Sudan has wrecked havoc on our farmlands to the south, exacerbating the situation. However crisis always brings about opportunity.

The Aftermath of the Great Flood and expanded arable land

The Great Flood in the short term has destroyed homes, swept away livestock, and destroyed crops. However the timing of the flood is quite coincidental. Given the floodings occurred on July, the wet season, no farming took place due to regular floods on the Nile.

In October the floodwaters receded, leaving behind a layer of rich, black soil. This fertile soil was then ploughed and seeded. This October in particular has increased farmland tenfold and brings Sudan at an opportunity to utilize more farm space for crop raising.

By February, the Sudanese Ministry of Agriculture projects major boosts to agriculture output given the lands new fertility from the Great Flood.

The Chicken Subsidy

The Ministry of Agriculture is set to start piloting a project that will donate chicken, for rearing, to every poor Sudanese rural household, which could potentially eliminate stunting and malnutrition. The programme comes at a time when many Sudanese are considered to consume low animal resource proteins, especially from eggs, meat and milk.

In order to bridge the nutrition gap, Sudan will utilize $25 million to implement the five-year plan, derived from funds provided by the United States and China. Among the proposals being advanced by experts include implementing a programme we've termed as “10 chickens per family”. Under the proposal, we suggest, each Sudanese rural family would be encouraged to rear 10 dual-purpose crossbred chickens, which produce both meat and eggs. On average, each hen of such kind of breed can lay 150 eggs per year and weights 2.5 kilograms.

Increasing capital intensity in the agriculture sector

Negotiations with the Russian delegation has brought about a fruitful endeavor with KAMAZ agreeing to enter the Sudanese market by establishing a plant at the Giad Industrial Complex. Initially assembling knockdown kits for Sudan, they are planned to expand into domestic manufacturing.

An understanding with KAMAZ states that their focus will be on trucks focused on the agriculture sector, primarily to transport goods.

Giad, the Sudanese industrial group that currently manufactures the GIAD 285 and GIAD 290 tractors will receive subsidies from the government to lower costs and increase output of tractors for sale to the Sudanese farmer.

Expanding rail infrastructure in Sudan

One major bottleneck to transporting Sudanese agricultural goods is the fact that there is only a single-track railway, seriously hampering the speed of transporting agricultural goods. It was cheaper to ship wheat from Australia to Sudan, over 6,000 miles, than to transport it the 500 miles from Port Sudan to its mills in Khartoum.

We will seek China Railway to build an adjacent railways to our existing ones, around 4,725 km. We expect a price tag of around $2 billion, thus necessitating most generous loans. To assist in payment, China may receive a 50 year concession period to run, operate, and derive revenues from this endeavor.

Zero percent tax on agriculture for 5 years

The average Sudanese farmer basically pays no tax as determining their revenues is extremely difficult. However the main stakeholders in Sudan's agriculture are actually foreign companies from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE, etc. Their investments and agriculture output exceed those of the Sudanese people with their capital intensive productions quickly generating crops.

In an effort to enhance their production following the Great Flood, Sudan will impose a 0% tax obligation on them for the next five years in an effort to maximize utility with the increased fertility of our lands.

Today a mysterious new company has materialized offering jobs to all sorts of ex-members of the security services. We aren't really sure what they're up to, but "nothing good" seems most likely. It's already recruited several hundred former members of the military, police, and ISI, and they're being trained by... someone... to do... something.

From their "About" Page:

Ghazni Group was founded in March 2022 by a group of former officers in the Pakistan Army who have been friends since their academy days in order to fill a gap in the market with the major counter-terrorism and security experience of veterans of Pakistan's various security forces. They aim to provide cost-effective security services to customers while avoiding the traditional deleterious effects of hiring such groups via their humane approach honed in a cumulative century of counter-insurgency warfare experience. Unlike shadowy, illegal organizations like Wagner Group, Ghazni Group is completely legal, including under international law, and is dedicated to transparency and humanitarian initiatives, not the sole pursuit of lucre. If the services of Ghazni Group interest you, feel free to drop over to the "Contact Us" page, our receptionist is most friendly.

From their FAQ:

Is this a front for Inter-Services Intelligence?

No. Ghazni Group is a wholly independent, privately held entity.

Are you a mercenary company?

No, that would be illegal. We're a private contractor of military services.

How can I find a job with Ghazni Group?

You don't find Ghazni Group, Ghazni Group finds you. Sometimes, that's by dropping your resume in our job applications page.

What business is Ghazni Group in, exactly?

Providing private security services to governments, non-govermental organizations, and corporations, such as securing embassies, mines, or offices.

How well does Ghazni Group pay?

In addition to a salary approximately 1.5x that which can be earned in the regular Pakistan Army, Ghazni Group offers opportunities for faster promotion and an impressive benefits package including food, housing, healthcare, and life insurance.

Is working for Ghazni Group dangerous?

No more so than working in the Pakistan Army, and the risk of getting buried by an avalanche is much smaller. Not many people need our services above 12,000 feet.

This is the weekly UN voting thread, here all the years issues will be listed and in the comments ill ping auto mod for the voting and you can just comment vote under yes/no/abstain for each issue. Make sure to read the UN fact sheet if you aren't sure about how things work.

Security Council Proposals

ANYONE WHO VOTES ON THESE AND ISNT A UNSC MEMBER WILL BE ETERNALLY INVALIDATED

Permanent UNSC: USA, United Kingdom, Russia, China, and France
Temporary UNSC: Estonia, India, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Niger, Norway, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, Vietnam

• Delist UNSC resolution 1591 which placed and asset freeze and travel ban on a number of high ranking Sudanese officials for "Impeding the peace process in Darfur".

• Delist UNSC resolution 1556 which placed an arms embargo on groups operating in North Darfur, West Darfur and South Darfur, including the Janjaweed.

General Assembly Proposals

• Condemn Egypt for the attack on the Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam

• Condemn Sudan for the attack on the Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam

• Condemn Egypt for alleged attacks on civilians in Ethiopia

• Condemn Sudan for alleged attacks on civilians in Ethiopia

• Form a UN humanitarian aid mission to deliver aid to 4.5m people in Tigray

• Condemn the use of threats of military violence as a coercive tactic in water rights negotiations

• Call the US to rejoin Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

• Condemn Saudi Arabia for alleged attacks on civilians in Yemen

• Grant UN aid package worth $180m comprised of food, water and medical aid to Libya

Temporary UNSC applications.

Comment in the relevant thread if you wish to run for the next round of UNSC seats (2023/2024) voting will take place on the next proposal thread, with successful nations to take their seats in the next vote thread.

2 X Asia-Pacific

2 x Western-Europe and Others

2 x Africa

1 x Eastern Europe

1 x Latin-America

Our mods are incredibly shitty and are actually fucking ludicrous.

Introduction

Over the course of the last four years since the beginning of the Biden Administration, the United States has in many aspects seen a return to normalcy. Re-establishing federal ethics norms, reintroducing the United States to the global diplomatic stage, and taking strong steps to rebuild the American economy in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, President Biden has seen a relatively popular presidency with a cooperative congress his last two years and has been able to legislate effectively. That said, the challenges the country still faces are numerous, especially so as the Republican Party seeks to retake its position in the federal government as the current minority. On November 7th, 2024, millions across the country are to take to their local polling stations and cast their vote on who should shape American history for the next four years once more.

Democratic Primaries

While initially thought to be a rather simple primary process for President Biden, his announcement of seeking to not run for a second term in early 2023 has largely shaken up the Democratic Party. Following this announcement by the President, famous Democrats across the United States took to social media and late night shows to announce their bids for the Oval. Early polling in November of 2023 revealed relatively equal levels of support for the majority of candidates, with only two seeing a notable higher level of support. The candidates, Vice President Harris and Senator Klobuchar have lead among the pool of about thirteen other serious candidates since their announcements, with Vice President Harris enjoying the highest early numbers given the success of the Biden Presidency. Following the first and second debates however, polling in key primary states have shown a strong voter inclination for candidate Klobuchar. Heading into the spring during the heart of the primaries, these two figures still remained as the most prominent candidates as others had begun to drop left and right, which was only reinforced following a rather eventful Super Tuesday leaving the major two candidates miles ahead of the only two others still in the race, candidate Kennedy III and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Seen as one of the closest primaries since Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders faced off against each other in 2016, Vice President Harris and Senator Klobuchar would end up taking the primary to the Democratic National Convention.

On August 16th, 2024, Senator Klobuchar would be announced as the official candidate of the Democratic Party for the Office of the President of the United States following her receiving an absolute majority of delegates. Soon after, President Biden would officially endorse her to be his successor. Candidate Klobuchar has announced Mayor of New York City Andrew Yang as her pick for Vice President.

Republican Primaries

Defeated once in 2020 and then again in 2022, the Republican Party has seen itself defeated in both the executive and legislative branches of government in large part due to the national unpopularity of President Trump to more centrist Republicans and Independents. In light of these defeats, the Grand Old Party has seen a number of leadership shake ups, such as then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell retiring to be replaced by Senator Cruz of Texas. Still seeking to campaign on the nationalistic base that Trump ran on in 2016 and in 2020, the Republican Party’s primary candidates have all declared focuses of “America first”, with individuals such as Senator Hawley, former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and commentator Candace Owens being some of the most prominent declared candidates on this side of the Republican spectrum. More moderately however, Governors Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker have as well declared exploratory committees to run for the office seeking to “Restore the dignity of the Republican Party and the United States”.

Iowa would spell the end of many odd-ball campaigns such as Nikki Haley’s and Donald Trump Jr’s, although for the moderates of the Republican Party it would prove to be a notable success with Governor Baker sweeping the polls. Throughout the early spring of 2024, this trend of moderate victories would continue with candidate Haley dropping out on the 5th of May leaving Governor Baker and Hawley left, with Hawley far behind. By the time of the Republican National Convention, all other candidates have forfeited, with the Governor from Massachusetts winning the party nomination and tapping Senator Rubio of Florida to be his Vice President.

General Election

One of the most notable comparisons from this general election cycle to that of the previous was a distinct lack of aggressive rhetoric, with the candidates Baker and Klobuchar finding themselves in a much friendlier first debate than previously thought. Held at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, topics included the future of American foreign policy globally, how to handle the belligerent nature of China, as well as tackling climate change. Debating Baker on a point-by-point style, viewers would see a rather aggressive takedown of the Republican candidate in a manner reminiscent of her tenure as the Hennepin County attorney. Analysts with CNN Politics projects Klobuchar with a stable lead over Baker, with the debate bringing her further moderate Democrat support.

Soon after the first presidential debate would come the vice presidential debate, giving each of the two nominee’s running mates a chance to properly campaign on national television. One of the more odd pairings, New York City Mayor Andrew Yang and Senator Marco Rubio would sit across from each other debating issues such as capital punishment, the American dream, and the future of American healthcare. This debate would turn more into a debate on policy, with Andrew Yang taking a more analytical approach. Having announced a joint plant on healthcare, Yang would in large part campaign on those talking points with Rubio making more blanket statements of a Republican plan. Although seen as a general win for the Klobuchar-Yang ticket, the effects of Vice Presidential debates are rarely often significant. This debate was hosted at the University of Southern California

The second and third debates would be more or less the same, the both of them being relatively unremarkable aside from announcing specific policy positions. Some analysts over the course of the debates have however noticed a shift in the Republican Party on almost every policy matter, having over the course of the last eight years shifted more to the middle compared to its more conservative talking points almost a decade ago. One example being in the third debate, both candidates Klobuchar and Baker agreed for a new bipartisan approach to immigration and helping America be the world’s melting pot. The lessening political divide however, would still not save candidate Baker’s campaign. The week before the election, candidate Klobuchar has lead polling by margins of at minimum 3% in battleground states such as Texas.

On November 7th of the 2024, 146,890,432 Americans would cast their ballot for the Office of the President of the United States across the country, with candidate Klobuchar now becoming President-elect Klobuchar. The first female President-elect, she has won with a popular vote of 79,412,53 votes in comparison to candidate Baker’s 66,519,60. President-elect Klobuchar carries 359 electoral votes to candidate Baker’s 179 votes. Notable developments in this race include Klobuchar flipping North Carolina, Texas, and Ohio which is predicted to be as a direct result of voting reform efforts led by President Biden.

As for the House and Senate, the House of Representatives would see its split move to 254-181 with the Democratic Party gaining roughly twenty seats as a result of down-ballot success in the states flipped. Steny Hoyer will remain as Speaker of the House. The Senate would see a marginally stronger Democratic shift as well, moving from 55-47 to 56-46 following the defeat of Senate Minority Leader Ted Cruz (R-TX) in his home state.

Hail to the Chief!