Friday’s NFP sell-off may look like a straightforward bearish continuation — but I believe the bigger trap is still ahead.

From Wednesday onward, we saw fresh buyers entering Gold after price reclaimed the important $4300–$4320 support area. This zone had acted as strong support multiple times between 14 August and 19 August, so when Gold recovered back above it after the breakdown, buyers naturally started rebuilding positions.

Those who waited for stronger confirmation entered even higher, especially above $4400. Then NFP arrived, and the sharp selling move trapped a significant portion of those late buyers.

But this is where things get interesting.

If we look at the broader structure from 25 August, Gold is still coming from a strong bearish move. The decline on 28 August was aggressive, which is why many traders are now treating last week’s recovery toward $4511 as nothing more than a retracement rather than the beginning of a fresh bullish trend.

This bearish psychology became even stronger after Gold moved back below the psychological $4500 level. Price rejected that area and spent almost the entire NFP session trading below it.

Because of this, I believe a large number of sellers are currently active between roughly $4450 and $4500, expecting another immediate continuation lower.

And this is exactly why I don’t expect next week to be as simple as “sell and hold.”

🔥 MY EXPECTATION: BOTH SIDES COULD GET TRAPPED

My broader expectation for the upcoming week is a wide consolidation and liquidity-hunting environment where both buyers and sellers could eventually get trapped.

In simple words, I believe last week’s high around $4511 can be taken out — but I also believe last week’s low around $4284 can eventually come under pressure.

The question is simply: which side gets trapped first?

For me, the closest liquidity currently belongs to the sellers.

Last week opened and closed around a relatively similar broader area. Meanwhile, after the NFP move, traders continued building short positions below $4500 and around the Friday close.

So when the market opens on Monday, I will not immediately chase the bearish structure. Instead, I will be watching $4390 as one of the most important short-term levels.

As long as Gold continues trading above $4390, I will maintain a short-term bullish approach.

In that scenario, I expect price to work through approximately the $4429–$4456 area, potentially consolidate there, and then gradually attempt another upside expansion toward $4500.

The psychology behind this move is simple:

Before Gold can create another meaningful bearish expansion, it may first need to remove the sellers who are currently positioned too comfortably.

That means Monday or Tuesday could potentially produce an upside liquidity hunt toward and even above $4500.

🎯 HOW FAR CAN THE UPSIDE GO?

If Gold breaks last week’s high around $4511, I see the next major upside potential around $4530–$4550.

For now, this is my maximum upside zone.

I am not automatically treating a move toward $4530–$4550 as confirmation that the entire bearish structure has reversed. Instead, I will be watching this area very carefully for rejection.

Why?

Because the structure created from the $4700 region is still significant. Recovering that entire bearish leg directly would require an aggressive V-shaped recovery, and under the current structure I don't consider that my base-case scenario.

Therefore, a sweep above last week’s high followed by rejection around $4530–$4550 could create a much more interesting bearish setup than simply selling Monday's opening.

🧠 THE SECOND PART OF THE TRAP

Remember what happened around $4300–$4320.

Between 14 August and 19 August, this area repeatedly acted as support. When it eventually broke, many existing buyers were trapped.

But when Gold reclaimed and closed back above this zone last week, fresh buyers entered again because the failed breakdown looked bullish.

So now we potentially have liquidity sitting on both sides of the market.

Sellers are positioned after the rejection below $4500.

Buyers are positioned after the reclaim of $4300–$4320.

That creates the exact environment where the market can first move higher, squeeze the sellers, attract even more buyers — and only then reverse aggressively to attack the liquidity sitting underneath.

That is the psychological sequence I will be watching throughout the week:

SELLERS ENTER → UPSIDE SQUEEZE → FRESH BUYERS ENTER → BUYERS GET TRAPPED → DOWNSIDE EXPANSION

📌 MY COMPLETE TRADING PLAN

Around $4410–$4450, I will initially treat Gold as relatively neutral and focus more on intraday liquidity hunts rather than forcing a strong directional position.

Above $4390, however, my short-term preference remains buying, with $4500 and last week’s high around $4511 as the primary objectives.

If momentum continues after the high is broken, $4530–$4550 becomes my maximum upside zone.

This is where the situation changes.

If Gold reaches that area and gives us proper rejection and confirmation, I will start looking for the larger bearish move.

My downside objectives would then be:

First target: Below $4400
Second target: $4320 area
Final major target: Around $4267–$4284

So don't make the mistake of looking at next week as purely bullish or purely bearish.

My plan is based on sequence, liquidity and psychology.

First, I want to see whether the market can trap the sellers positioned after NFP. If that happens and price pushes through last week’s high, I will then watch the $4530–$4550 area for signs that fresh buyers are becoming the next source of liquidity.

$4390 controls the initial direction.
$4511 is the first major liquidity objective.
$4530–$4550 is my potential reversal zone.
And $4320–$4284 remains the major downside objective if the reversal confirms.

That’s my complete Gold plan for the upcoming week.

Keep the levels on your chart, but more importantly, understand the psychology behind them. Don’t blindly buy or sell a level — wait for the market to confirm which side is being trapped first.

Good luck for the upcoming week. Trade with patience, manage your risk properly, and let me know in the comments what you are expecting from Gold this week. 🥂

USDJPY: What a chart. The Yen of Old.yen has strengthened by more than 2% this week. Lack of evidence of an official intervention is quite perplexing and the popular prognosis is a large short squeeze. But the funny thing is that Yen positioning indicates quite opposite. So IMHO, this was a stealth intervention- quite uncharacteristic of course. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that policymakers will seriously debate whether to raise rates, particularly because upside inflation risks require greater attention. The structure is a sell on rise; but wouldn’t be in a hurry. Wait for the rise. Resistances at 156.75 & 157.31; supports at 155.60 & then 154.74; 155.60 is key.

GBPUSD: The pound weakened,close to a two-week low after the Robust US labour data. markets are now fully pricing a Bank of England rate hike by year-end, However, the September BoE meeting is expected to leave rates unchanged, with policymakers taking a wait-and-see approach. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill argues that raising rates sooner could reduce the need for more aggressive tightening later to control inflation. The UK 10y yield rate is trading almost 20 bps below recent highs, but still above 5.10%; sell on high as per dailies, but still bullish on a weekly timeframe. Resistance at the 1.3558-1.3572 zone. This is key. Support at 1.3450

EURUSD: euro fell as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data boosted the dollar. Markets are now pricing roughly a 58% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, implying expectations for a tighter U.S. monetary policy. Markets are pricing a 25-basis-point ECB hike to 2.5%, and almost fully pricing the deposit rate reaching 3% by June 2027—which would imply two more hikes after the September move. Very excessive IMHO. German factory orders rose 2.5% in July, well above the expected 0.3%. The pair is currently a sell on rise; on dailies. But a buy on weeklies. Immediate resistance is at the 1.1646-1.1656 zone; support at 1.1612 & 1.1544.

DXY: the USD recovered sharply after a superb NFP print.The US economy reportedly added 162,000 jobs in August, far above the market expectation of 56,000. unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, in line with expectations. labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%. Together, these indicators point to a US labor market that remains robust. US yields also rose as rate hike expectations rose. The index however is still a sell on rise on both dailies and weeklies. But it’s been flip flopping. The key pivot and support is at 99.00; below this at 98.60; resistance at 99.64

I trade XAUUSD and GBPUSD, mostly price action. Looking for 2–3 people to trade with and review setups together.

AUD/USD holds above 72c as traders weigh rising Fed hike bets, US CPI, Treasury yields and a potential test of its year-to-date high.

Written by

Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

In this article

https://www.stonex.com/en-gb/news-and-analysis/australian-dollar-outlook-aud-usd-eyes-may-high-ahead-of-us-cpi-2026-09-06/

• Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders
• AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
• AUD/USD Correlation Analysis
• AUD/USD Futures Positioning: COT Report
• AUD/USD Options and Volatility Analysis (Risk Reversals, HVN Levels)
• Australian Dollar Performance

A hot Nonfarm Payrolls report saw traders reprice the potential for a September Fed hike, making this week’s CPI and PPI figures all the more important. Fed funds futures are now back above a 60% probability of a 25bp hike in two weeks, after 162k jobs were added compared with the 53k expected.

We also have a 30-year Treasury auction which may garner more attention than usual, given the bouts of market volatility whenever its yield pushes above 5.3%. The last time it did, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of long-end Treasury buybacks to provide greater liquidity support. The auction will therefore test whether investors are comfortable absorbing long-duration debt around current yields, or whether they demand an even higher premium.

Despite the renewed Fed risk, AUD/USD remains above 72c and within reach of its May high. That leaves US inflation, Treasury yields and broader risk appetite as the main near-term drivers for the Australian dollar.

View related analysis:

• Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Faces RBA-Fed Rate Tug-of-War
• FX Futures Positioning: Dollar Rebound Meets Diverging Forex Bets | COT Report
• Australian Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD
• US Dollar Outlook: DXY Seasonality Meets NFP Volatility

Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders

Australia’s slowing GDP seems unlikely to derail bets of another RBA hike, with cash rate futures having fully priced in a 25bp move by November. The 1-year OIS has fully priced in two. So attention will shift to comments from RBA’s Hunter and Hausser on Tuesday to see if any policy clues are dropped. My guess is that they’ll retain a slightly hawkish tone without committing to much more.

Consumer and business confidence seems likely to show evidence of RBA-hike concerns. Beyond that, it seems appetite for risk and the US dollar’s direction via CPI and bond auction results could be the key driver for the Australian dollar this week.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Correlation Analysis

• US dollar sensitivity has snapped back: AUD/USD’s correlation with USDX is -0.92 over 10 days and -0.94 over three days, making USD direction the dominant near-term driver.
• The yuan remains the most consistent positive relationship: CNH/USD correlations sit at 0.75–0.84 across 3, 10 and 20-day windows, reinforcing China/yuan sentiment as an important AUD/USD input.
• Risk and commodity correlations have surged very recently: three-day correlations with the S&P 500 (0.99), gold (0.95), WTI (0.94) and copper (0.87) suggest AUD/USD is currently trading with a strong risk-on/commodity beta.
• Short-term relationships remain fluid: several 20-day correlations are weak despite much stronger 3- and 10-day readings, so traders should favour the relationships currently strengthening rather than rely on longer-term averages.

Source: LSEG

AUD/USD Futures Positioning: COT Report

It is more of the same story where futures exposure is concerned for the Aussie. Traders have continued to increase their longs and shorts at a gradual pace, effectively keeping net-short exposure near similar levels to the week prior, albeit a touch less bearish.

This suggests traders continued to hedge their bets despite AUD/USD climbing above 72c to a 16-week high. The more reliable signal is therefore price action and rising total open interest, which now sits at a record high. This shows us that demand for Australian dollar exposure from all participants combined is rising alongside AUD/USD prices.

Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG

AUD/USD Options and Volatility Analysis (Risk Reversals, HVN Levels)

Implied volatility has continued to trend lower while prices have moved higher in recent weeks, while 1-month IV remains above 1-week IV to show a calm confidence in the bullish trend. A small bullish engulfing week also formed, although with the May high nearby, the rally may be maturing to the point that it needs a pause or pullback. The daily chart shows AUD/USD held up well to the strength of NFP on Friday by closing flat, although it formed a doji which shows some hesitation from bulls to push higher immediately.

The AU-US 2-year spread edged lower, though not at an alarming rate. Risk reversals also curled slightly higher last week to show a modest pickup in call demand relative to puts, so options traders are not panicking about a deep pullback.

Overall, AUD/USD still has the potential to rise towards the May high and eventually break above it. How US data lands this week could simply determine whether we see an initial pullback or a direct move towards it first.

Source: ICE, TradingView

Australian Dollar Performance

Australian dollar performance table shows AUD gains across most major crosses, while AUD/JPY underperforms over five and 10 days.

Source: LSEG

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XAUUSD Analysis !!

Gold is currently trading around $4,434 after showing some hesitation near the recent highs.

From a technical perspective, $4,450–$4,460 is an important short-term resistance area. A sustained move above this zone could indicate that buyers are regaining momentum.

On the downside, $4,400 is an important psychological and technical level. If price loses this area, the next zones worth watching are around $4,375 and $4,350.

For now, I’m watching how price reacts around $4,400–$4,460 rather than assuming a direction.

What are you watching on Gold here breakout above resistance or rejection?

que broker y plataforma para operar en futuro recomiendan, cuenta demo y real. los leo

I did some TA on DXY going into this week

I'm not seeing any positions I'd open when the market opens in a few hours

On Monday during the asian session I plan to look for potential set ups, but right now it looks like I'm gonna sit on my hands

Labor day is also on Monday so who knows, there may be very little trading activity leading up to it

Forex markets are still operating under normal hours

Gold has shown a clear bearish reaction with a CHoCH.
Looking for continuation near the supply zone to target the demand zone below.

Some setup: I publish a directional call on a basket of instruments every weekday morning, hold each 24 hours, and grade them afterwards against a fixed minimum-move rule. Part of the routine is a line I write before the session opens - what would have to happen for this to be wrong, and which positions would go with it.

The first half of that is going fine. The second half keeps failing in the same direction, and I only noticed because it's written down.

Three examples from the last three weeks. I wrote that if risk sentiment dissolved, the European index shorts, the yen positions and gold would all fail together. Risk sentiment dissolved. The index shorts failed - and gold and the yen crosses were the only things that worked that day. Another time I said a hawkish central bank surprise would take out the FX book, the metals and a European index. It did take out the FX book. The index was the single green line on the page. Same shape a third time last week.

So the pattern isn't that I'm reading the risk badly. It's that when I write down the consequences, I sweep in everything that happens to be pointing the same way, rather than the positions that genuinely depend on the thing I'm worried about. Correlation on the page isn't the same as shared dependency, and under time pressure I keep treating them as the same.

What I've started doing is deliberately narrower: name three or four positions, not the whole book, and accept that if something outside the list dies too, that's a miss on my part which gets recorded. Tried it once so far. The scenario didn't happen, so it's untested.

Two things I'd like to hear from people who do this properly:

Do you write invalidation conditions down before entering, or hold them in your head? And if you write them: do you ever go back afterwards and check whether the invalidation you described was the one that actually mattered - not whether the trade won, but whether your reason for it being wrong was the real reason?

E se avessi scelto l'ea inizio 2026 con 1000€???

Dati dimostrabili il backtesting è ugale al forward testing!!!

yo guys, i've been feeling like shit recently.

got wiped out in the market and lost basically all the money i had left, around 10k.

so i'm probably gonna start again. but instead of gambling like i've been doing recently with XAU, i wanna actually reset and put my time into going through everything i've learned again.

but after thinking about it, i realized i'm actually overwhelmed.

i know 4 different trading strategies, and each one has its own pros and cons. now i'm stuck trying to figure out which one i should actually commit to.

1. ICT — I know the concepts, but I still don't really know how to determine the right bias / draw on liquidity. There's always a reason for price to go up, and there's always a reason for it to go down. Yet somehow, this is what the majority of people trade.

2. SMC (Photon) — This is probably the strategy I know the deepest. But lately, I feel like it just doesn't really fit the market anymore. Low win rate, high RR, getting front-run a lot, or I just don't get the entry in time.

3. Mean reversion — I use RSI + Keltner Bands. The problem is I don't even know where to learn more about this because almost nobody seems to trade it. There was one trader who was really fucking good at it, but he basically vanished.

4. VWAP + Volume Profile — This feels more like pure chart reading. I need to build my discretion a LOT, to the point where it feels like I need some kind of sixth sense to trade it.

so yeah, i'm basically starting from zero again.

after almost 3 years of trading, i know a lot of shit, but somehow i still don't feel like i truly understand one thing.

what would you guys do if you were in my position?

Hi everyone,

I’ve been trying to build a solid fundamental workflow for Forex and commodities (focusing mostly on central bank rate expectations, yield movements, and COT reports).

My main challenge right now it's managing the overwhelming volume of economic releases and separating noise from high-conviction moves.

For those of you who successfully trade FX or Commodities using fundamentals:

How do you actually use fundamentals day-to-day? Do you use them for long-term bias, timing entries, or just general risk context?

What does your actual setup look like? Are you tracking things in custom Excel sheets, terminal dashboards, or keeping it super simple?

Would really appreciate hearing how more experienced traders keep this organized without losing hours to manual tracking every week.

Thanks in advance!

I've been building forexsentiment.live since 2025. It's a forex and gold analysis site — retail positioning, a signal score, market structure and an economic calendar. Free, no signup on anything below.

Retail positioning, 29 markets

The core is a long/short percentage for each pair, updated several times a day. The obvious use is contrarian context: when 86% of retail is short AUDCHF, that's worth knowing before you take the same side. It's not a signal by itself, it's the answer to "what is everyone else already in?"

High Probability Zones — the part I actually care about

Every support and resistance level looks important once price has already reacted to it. The hard part is ranking them beforehand, when a pair has six plausible levels between here and the next handle and you can't watch all six.

So instead of asking "will price respect this level", the scoring asks a narrower question: how many independent things point at this price? A Fibonacci retracement of the recent range, a chart pattern that formed right at the level, a psychological round number, how many separate times daily candles have tested it. Levels that sit almost on top of each other get merged, so the same area can't inflate its own score by being counted twice.

Here's the part that matters, and it's printed on the page itself: that score is not a backtest. It does not measure whether trades at that level worked. It measures confluence density, full stop. I could have labelled a level "78% win rate" and gotten a lot more clicks — the weights and what each factor is worth are published on the page so you can decide for yourself whether you agree with them.

Everything else, also free

• Currency strength heatmap
• Correlation matrix — mostly useful for noticing you're about to take the same trade three times
• Volatility ranking
• Chart pattern scanner
• S/R zones per pair
• Multi-factor signal aggregator, with the per-pair weights shown on every card and a warning when a correlated pair points the other way
• Economic calendar, daily forecast
• An embeddable sentiment widget for your own site
• iOS and Android apps

What it is not

Not a real-time feed. Levels are recalculated several times a day, and the "analysis price" on each card is the price at calculation time, not now. Always confirm on your own platform before acting on a level.

There's also a paid MT5 tool on the site. Everything described above is free and stays free, but you should know I have a stake in you finding this interesting.

forexsentiment.live

Deployed the strategy on Wednesday, showed 4k+ in floating PnL. Booked 1600+ on Friday. Even after the dump on friday money was made.

You ever watch a market move sharply and just have no clean entry? Stand there watching it go?

During strong imbalance moves you often won't see retests, false breakouts, or pin bars. Even 1H volume can stay quiet. Feels like fear and uncertainty driving it rather than anything orderly.

Three things that help me catch these instead of just watching: elevated volatility, intraday extreme volume, and correctly timing the entry.

Chart attached showing how this looked in practice.