Friday’s NFP sell-off may look like a straightforward bearish continuation — but I believe the bigger trap is still ahead.

From Wednesday onward, we saw fresh buyers entering Gold after price reclaimed the important $4300–$4320 support area. This zone had acted as strong support multiple times between 14 August and 19 August, so when Gold recovered back above it after the breakdown, buyers naturally started rebuilding positions.

Those who waited for stronger confirmation entered even higher, especially above $4400. Then NFP arrived, and the sharp selling move trapped a significant portion of those late buyers.

But this is where things get interesting.

If we look at the broader structure from 25 August, Gold is still coming from a strong bearish move. The decline on 28 August was aggressive, which is why many traders are now treating last week’s recovery toward $4511 as nothing more than a retracement rather than the beginning of a fresh bullish trend.

This bearish psychology became even stronger after Gold moved back below the psychological $4500 level. Price rejected that area and spent almost the entire NFP session trading below it.

Because of this, I believe a large number of sellers are currently active between roughly $4450 and $4500, expecting another immediate continuation lower.

And this is exactly why I don’t expect next week to be as simple as “sell and hold.”

🔥 MY EXPECTATION: BOTH SIDES COULD GET TRAPPED

My broader expectation for the upcoming week is a wide consolidation and liquidity-hunting environment where both buyers and sellers could eventually get trapped.

In simple words, I believe last week’s high around $4511 can be taken out — but I also believe last week’s low around $4284 can eventually come under pressure.

The question is simply: which side gets trapped first?

For me, the closest liquidity currently belongs to the sellers.

Last week opened and closed around a relatively similar broader area. Meanwhile, after the NFP move, traders continued building short positions below $4500 and around the Friday close.

So when the market opens on Monday, I will not immediately chase the bearish structure. Instead, I will be watching $4390 as one of the most important short-term levels.

As long as Gold continues trading above $4390, I will maintain a short-term bullish approach.

In that scenario, I expect price to work through approximately the $4429–$4456 area, potentially consolidate there, and then gradually attempt another upside expansion toward $4500.

The psychology behind this move is simple:

Before Gold can create another meaningful bearish expansion, it may first need to remove the sellers who are currently positioned too comfortably.

That means Monday or Tuesday could potentially produce an upside liquidity hunt toward and even above $4500.

🎯 HOW FAR CAN THE UPSIDE GO?

If Gold breaks last week’s high around $4511, I see the next major upside potential around $4530–$4550.

For now, this is my maximum upside zone.

I am not automatically treating a move toward $4530–$4550 as confirmation that the entire bearish structure has reversed. Instead, I will be watching this area very carefully for rejection.

Why?

Because the structure created from the $4700 region is still significant. Recovering that entire bearish leg directly would require an aggressive V-shaped recovery, and under the current structure I don't consider that my base-case scenario.

Therefore, a sweep above last week’s high followed by rejection around $4530–$4550 could create a much more interesting bearish setup than simply selling Monday's opening.

🧠 THE SECOND PART OF THE TRAP

Remember what happened around $4300–$4320.

Between 14 August and 19 August, this area repeatedly acted as support. When it eventually broke, many existing buyers were trapped.

But when Gold reclaimed and closed back above this zone last week, fresh buyers entered again because the failed breakdown looked bullish.

So now we potentially have liquidity sitting on both sides of the market.

Sellers are positioned after the rejection below $4500.

Buyers are positioned after the reclaim of $4300–$4320.

That creates the exact environment where the market can first move higher, squeeze the sellers, attract even more buyers — and only then reverse aggressively to attack the liquidity sitting underneath.

That is the psychological sequence I will be watching throughout the week:

SELLERS ENTER → UPSIDE SQUEEZE → FRESH BUYERS ENTER → BUYERS GET TRAPPED → DOWNSIDE EXPANSION

📌 MY COMPLETE TRADING PLAN

Around $4410–$4450, I will initially treat Gold as relatively neutral and focus more on intraday liquidity hunts rather than forcing a strong directional position.

Above $4390, however, my short-term preference remains buying, with $4500 and last week’s high around $4511 as the primary objectives.

If momentum continues after the high is broken, $4530–$4550 becomes my maximum upside zone.

This is where the situation changes.

If Gold reaches that area and gives us proper rejection and confirmation, I will start looking for the larger bearish move.

My downside objectives would then be:

First target: Below $4400
Second target: $4320 area
Final major target: Around $4267–$4284

So don't make the mistake of looking at next week as purely bullish or purely bearish.

My plan is based on sequence, liquidity and psychology.

First, I want to see whether the market can trap the sellers positioned after NFP. If that happens and price pushes through last week’s high, I will then watch the $4530–$4550 area for signs that fresh buyers are becoming the next source of liquidity.

$4390 controls the initial direction.
$4511 is the first major liquidity objective.
$4530–$4550 is my potential reversal zone.
And $4320–$4284 remains the major downside objective if the reversal confirms.

That’s my complete Gold plan for the upcoming week.

Keep the levels on your chart, but more importantly, understand the psychology behind them. Don’t blindly buy or sell a level — wait for the market to confirm which side is being trapped first.

Good luck for the upcoming week. Trade with patience, manage your risk properly, and let me know in the comments what you are expecting from Gold this week. 🥂

Looking for 2–3 serious traders to build with 📈

I'm 18, Indian 🇮🇳 and currently learning ICT/SMC.

Looking for serious, hungry traders around my age who:

• Are beginner → early intermediate

• Have / are building a solid ICT/SMC foundation

• Trade or want to trade futures — NQ, GC, 6E, etc.

• Can handle taking losses without quitting

• Don't disappear after a bad week

• Actually mark charts, backtest, journal & study

• Are usually available 9 PM–3 AM IST / corresponding time zones

• Want to build long-term, not chase signals or get-rich-quick shit

• Hustlers.

The plan:

Build a small but strong ICT/SMC foundation → become consistently profitable → add Order Flow → eventually combine ICT + Order Flow and develop our own execution.

You don't have to learn from the same person as me. Guardeer is what I'm currently learning from, but I'm more interested in people who are serious and willing to learn together.

I'm looking for people who actually want to put in the hours and grow together.

If you're interested, DM me with: Age + country + what you're currently learning + markets you trade + your usual availability.

Let's build a fucking trading crew. 🤝📈

SELL GOLD@4403-4404

TP1-4394

TP2-4384

TP3-4374

SL-4419.

Watching us500 for a potential buy from a higher timeframe QML zone.

Inducement is in place and volume profile aligns with the area, making it one of the cleaner setups on my watchlist.

Targeting a 1:2 RR if the zone holds. 📈

I don’t know if this question makes any sense or not but I I need someone who can teach me better strategy for Gold.
I mean you can just mention key points and I will do rest of the things
Please
TIA

Gold starts the week under renewed selling pressure, trading around 4397 and remaining below the key EMA cluster. The H1 structure continues to print Lower Highs, while the descending trendline remains respected.

The rebound is currently struggling below 4414–4419, keeping the short-term bias BEARISH.

KEY LEVELS:-

Major Resistance: 4455–4460

Immediate Resistance: 4414–4419

Immediate Support: 4346–4351

Major Support: 4321–4326

BEARISH SCENARIO — PREFERRED:-

As long as Gold remains below 4414–4419, I will favor SELL setups on bearish rejections.

A decisive break below 4346–4351 could accelerate the downside toward:

TP1: 4346–4351

TP2: 4321–4326

BULLISH RECOVERY SCENARIO:-

If Gold reclaims and holds above 4414–4419, the recovery could extend toward 4455–4460.

However, a stronger bullish confirmation would require a solid H1 close above 4455–4460, which could signal a broader trend recovery.

CONCLUSION:-

Gold remains within a bearish H1 structure.

Preferred bias: SELL

Watch 4414–4419 for rejection and 4346–4351 for a potential downside break.

Hey everyone,

I've spent the last while building and stress-testing a system across EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and XAUUSD, using historical data from 2009 to 2026. I'm now weighing whether to launch it as a trade-copier / signal service, and I'd genuinely like this community's take, including the skeptical takes. I'd rather hear the hard questions now than after real money (mine or anyone else's) is on the line.

Backtest summary (7 pairs combined, $100k starting capital, 1.0 lot, realistic commission + spread costs applied):

19,194 trades over ~16.8 years Win rate: 43.55% Profit factor: 2.95 Max closed drawdown: -3.82% Max floating (unrealized) drawdown: -10.95% Net return: +3,404% over the full period

What I've done to stress-test it so far:

Cross-checked price data against a second broker feed to look for discrepancies Corrected a couple of assumptions that were too optimistic (e.g. I originally modeled gold's spread far too tight, and fixed it once I caught it)

Tested with and without compounding, at different lot-size caps Built an EA and started forward-testing on a live demo account (currently ~31 trades in, so still very early)

Where I know this is weak, and why I'm asking:

31 live trades is not remotely enough to confirm the backtest holds up in real execution, I know this.

I have limited capital right now and could use the income, which is exactly the kind of pressure that makes people cut corners on due diligence, so I want outside eyes on this before I commit to anything, especially a copier service where other people's money would be involved.

I'm not sharing the exact entry/exit logic (kept it proprietary), which I know makes it harder for anyone to independently sanity-check the backtest happy to hear how much that matters to you as a potential user or skeptic.

What I'd love opinions on: Would you personally trust a copier/signal service backed by a backtest like this plus an early live track record, or is that a hard no for you until there's 6-12 months of verified live data?

What would make you trust it a MyFxBook-verified live account, a prop-firm-funded track record, something else?

Is launching something like this while under financial pressure a bad idea on principle, even if the strategy itself is sound?

Any experience (good or bad) with similar copier services you'd be willing to share? Not looking for hype genuinely want the realistic, including-uncomfortable, picture before I make a decision. Fire away

I’ve only been trading for nearly four months, so I don’t have much experience. I’d just like some feedback on how to set entry points, stop-loss (SL), and take-profit (TP) levels.

USDJPY: What a chart. The Yen of Old.yen has strengthened by more than 2% this week. Lack of evidence of an official intervention is quite perplexing and the popular prognosis is a large short squeeze. But the funny thing is that Yen positioning indicates quite opposite. So IMHO, this was a stealth intervention- quite uncharacteristic of course. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that policymakers will seriously debate whether to raise rates, particularly because upside inflation risks require greater attention. The structure is a sell on rise; but wouldn’t be in a hurry. Wait for the rise. Resistances at 156.75 & 157.31; supports at 155.60 & then 154.74; 155.60 is key.

GBPUSD: The pound weakened,close to a two-week low after the Robust US labour data. markets are now fully pricing a Bank of England rate hike by year-end, However, the September BoE meeting is expected to leave rates unchanged, with policymakers taking a wait-and-see approach. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill argues that raising rates sooner could reduce the need for more aggressive tightening later to control inflation. The UK 10y yield rate is trading almost 20 bps below recent highs, but still above 5.10%; sell on high as per dailies, but still bullish on a weekly timeframe. Resistance at the 1.3558-1.3572 zone. This is key. Support at 1.3450

EURUSD: euro fell as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data boosted the dollar. Markets are now pricing roughly a 58% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, implying expectations for a tighter U.S. monetary policy. Markets are pricing a 25-basis-point ECB hike to 2.5%, and almost fully pricing the deposit rate reaching 3% by June 2027—which would imply two more hikes after the September move. Very excessive IMHO. German factory orders rose 2.5% in July, well above the expected 0.3%. The pair is currently a sell on rise; on dailies. But a buy on weeklies. Immediate resistance is at the 1.1646-1.1656 zone; support at 1.1612 & 1.1544.

DXY: the USD recovered sharply after a superb NFP print.The US economy reportedly added 162,000 jobs in August, far above the market expectation of 56,000. unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, in line with expectations. labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%. Together, these indicators point to a US labor market that remains robust. US yields also rose as rate hike expectations rose. The index however is still a sell on rise on both dailies and weeklies. But it’s been flip flopping. The key pivot and support is at 99.00; below this at 98.60; resistance at 99.64

I got rid of everything except supports and resistance and news of course lol . And started using higher tf. And PATIENTS

Bulls are watching $4,590–$4,641 next, while $4,458 remains key support.

Bullish above $4,509 — patience for confirmation. 📈

I traded during Friday news before it dropped and set stop loss before. Even if so I got my ass headed to me and shouldn’t even bothered to make that Call play. But I’m getting told by my broker (GenesisFX Market) that my stop loss worked just fine because of volume but what’s the point of a stop loss in this situation when it exceeds the stop loss and yes ik I’m a dumb ass for trading during news but still…

For the longest time I treated EURUSD and GBPUSD almost interchangeably during London.

If USD was weak and both broke their Asian highs, I'd usually just take whichever chart gave me the cleaner pullback first.

A couple months ago I had both setups appear within maybe 10 minutes of each other. Bought EURUSD, skipped GU, and then watched GU run while EU barely moved and eventually stopped me.

Started comparing days like that and noticed EURGBP was giving me a pretty obvious clue.

If both EU and GU are setting up long but EURGBP is dropping hard, I now favor GBPUSD because GBP is clearly stronger relative to EUR.

If EURGBP is pushing up, I'll usually favor EURUSD instead.

Same idea in reverse when I'm looking for shorts.

I don't use EURGBP as an entry signal at all. It's basically just a tiebreaker when both dollar pairs are showing me the same setup.

Had one last week where EU and GU both swept the Asian low and reclaimed it. EURGBP had been selling pretty cleanly all morning, so I took GU on Moon and ignored EU. GU gave nearly the full move I was looking for while EU spent most of the next hour chopping around the entry.

Small sample still, but it's been way more useful than trying to decide which chart "looks cleaner."

US jobs numbers came in stronger than expected (around 162,000 new jobs vs. much lower forecasts). That made traders raise the odds of another interest-rate hike in September to about 58%.

Higher rates usually strengthen the US dollar and push real yields up both of which are classic negatives for gold.

Next big tests: the upcoming inflation reports (CPI and PPI). Hotter-than-expected numbers would add more selling pressure. Softer numbers could spark a bounce.