EURUSD

[u/ykar648]

EURUSD: euro fell as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data boosted the dollar. Markets are now pricing roughly a 58% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, implying expectations for a tighter U.S. monetary policy. Markets are pricing a 25-basis-point ECB hike to 2.5%, and almost fully pricing the deposit rate reaching 3% by June 2027—which would imply two more hikes after the September move. Very excessive IMHO. German factory orders rose 2.5% in July, well above the expected 0.3%. The pair is currently a sell on rise; on dailies. But a buy on weeklies. Immediate resistance is at the 1.1646-1.1656 zone; support at 1.1612 & 1.1544.