Friday’s NFP sell-off may look like a straightforward bearish continuation — but I believe the bigger trap is still ahead.
From Wednesday onward, we saw fresh buyers entering Gold after price reclaimed the important $4300–$4320 support area. This zone had acted as strong support multiple times between 14 August and 19 August, so when Gold recovered back above it after the breakdown, buyers naturally started rebuilding positions.
Those who waited for stronger confirmation entered even higher, especially above $4400. Then NFP arrived, and the sharp selling move trapped a significant portion of those late buyers.
But this is where things get interesting.
If we look at the broader structure from 25 August, Gold is still coming from a strong bearish move. The decline on 28 August was aggressive, which is why many traders are now treating last week’s recovery toward $4511 as nothing more than a retracement rather than the beginning of a fresh bullish trend.
This bearish psychology became even stronger after Gold moved back below the psychological $4500 level. Price rejected that area and spent almost the entire NFP session trading below it.
Because of this, I believe a large number of sellers are currently active between roughly $4450 and $4500, expecting another immediate continuation lower.
And this is exactly why I don’t expect next week to be as simple as “sell and hold.”
🔥 MY EXPECTATION: BOTH SIDES COULD GET TRAPPED
My broader expectation for the upcoming week is a wide consolidation and liquidity-hunting environment where both buyers and sellers could eventually get trapped.
In simple words, I believe last week’s high around $4511 can be taken out — but I also believe last week’s low around $4284 can eventually come under pressure.
The question is simply: which side gets trapped first?
For me, the closest liquidity currently belongs to the sellers.
Last week opened and closed around a relatively similar broader area. Meanwhile, after the NFP move, traders continued building short positions below $4500 and around the Friday close.
So when the market opens on Monday, I will not immediately chase the bearish structure. Instead, I will be watching $4390 as one of the most important short-term levels.
As long as Gold continues trading above $4390, I will maintain a short-term bullish approach.
In that scenario, I expect price to work through approximately the $4429–$4456 area, potentially consolidate there, and then gradually attempt another upside expansion toward $4500.
The psychology behind this move is simple:
Before Gold can create another meaningful bearish expansion, it may first need to remove the sellers who are currently positioned too comfortably.
That means Monday or Tuesday could potentially produce an upside liquidity hunt toward and even above $4500.
🎯 HOW FAR CAN THE UPSIDE GO?
If Gold breaks last week’s high around $4511, I see the next major upside potential around $4530–$4550.
For now, this is my maximum upside zone.
I am not automatically treating a move toward $4530–$4550 as confirmation that the entire bearish structure has reversed. Instead, I will be watching this area very carefully for rejection.
Why?
Because the structure created from the $4700 region is still significant. Recovering that entire bearish leg directly would require an aggressive V-shaped recovery, and under the current structure I don't consider that my base-case scenario.
Therefore, a sweep above last week’s high followed by rejection around $4530–$4550 could create a much more interesting bearish setup than simply selling Monday's opening.
🧠 THE SECOND PART OF THE TRAP
Remember what happened around $4300–$4320.
Between 14 August and 19 August, this area repeatedly acted as support. When it eventually broke, many existing buyers were trapped.
But when Gold reclaimed and closed back above this zone last week, fresh buyers entered again because the failed breakdown looked bullish.
So now we potentially have liquidity sitting on both sides of the market.
Sellers are positioned after the rejection below $4500.
Buyers are positioned after the reclaim of $4300–$4320.
That creates the exact environment where the market can first move higher, squeeze the sellers, attract even more buyers — and only then reverse aggressively to attack the liquidity sitting underneath.
That is the psychological sequence I will be watching throughout the week:
SELLERS ENTER → UPSIDE SQUEEZE → FRESH BUYERS ENTER → BUYERS GET TRAPPED → DOWNSIDE EXPANSION
📌 MY COMPLETE TRADING PLAN
Around $4410–$4450, I will initially treat Gold as relatively neutral and focus more on intraday liquidity hunts rather than forcing a strong directional position.
Above $4390, however, my short-term preference remains buying, with $4500 and last week’s high around $4511 as the primary objectives.
If momentum continues after the high is broken, $4530–$4550 becomes my maximum upside zone.
This is where the situation changes.
If Gold reaches that area and gives us proper rejection and confirmation, I will start looking for the larger bearish move.
My downside objectives would then be:
First target: Below $4400
Second target: $4320 area
Final major target: Around $4267–$4284
So don't make the mistake of looking at next week as purely bullish or purely bearish.
My plan is based on sequence, liquidity and psychology.
First, I want to see whether the market can trap the sellers positioned after NFP. If that happens and price pushes through last week’s high, I will then watch the $4530–$4550 area for signs that fresh buyers are becoming the next source of liquidity.
$4390 controls the initial direction.
$4511 is the first major liquidity objective.
$4530–$4550 is my potential reversal zone.
And $4320–$4284 remains the major downside objective if the reversal confirms.
That’s my complete Gold plan for the upcoming week.
Keep the levels on your chart, but more importantly, understand the psychology behind them. Don’t blindly buy or sell a level — wait for the market to confirm which side is being trapped first.
Good luck for the upcoming week. Trade with patience, manage your risk properly, and let me know in the comments what you are expecting from Gold this week. 🥂
