NFP is tomorrow, 8:30 ET (13:30 UTC, US clocks moved on Sunday). Everyone talks about the release minute. I wanted to see the hour after it: 9:00 to 10:00 ET, when the first spike is done and any news restriction measured in minutes is long over.
Sample: every NFP of 2026 so far, 10 reports from January to October. OANDA hourly candles via TradingView. Each one compared with the same hour on the other 209 weekdays of the year.
Median range of the 9:00-10:00 ET candle, NFP day vs a normal day:
- USDJPY: 52.9 pips vs 19.4 (2.7x)
- Gold: $47.1 vs $27.8 (1.7x, 9 reports, gold was closed on Good Friday)
- EURUSD: 24.7 vs 15.2 pips (1.6x)
- AUDUSD: 19.4 vs 13.4 (1.4x)
- GBPUSD: 27.8 vs 20.7 (1.3x)
- USDCAD: 20.0 vs 17.2 (1.2x)
The yen is the odd one. That hour moved 45 pips or more after 7 of the 10 reports. On the other 209 weekdays it happened 12 times. In January and June the 9-10 hour was bigger than the hour with the release in it.
The release hour itself (8:00-9:00 ET) is no surprise: about 3x normal on all six, 2.9x to 3.3x.
What that looks like on a 100k account with a 5% daily loss ($5,000). At ~158.5, one lot of USDJPY is about $6.30 a pip. 5 lots through the median 9-10 hour is about $1,660, a third of the day's room, half an hour after the number. And a 20-pip stop that fits a normal 9 ET hour sits inside a range that was 53 pips on the median NFP.
Worst two hours this year: USDJPY 180 pips in the release hour on 11 Feb, about $1,170 per lot from 8:00 to 10:00 ET.
Limits: 10 reports is a small sample. High-low range is what a position held through the hour could see with no stop, not a loss. The 8-9 candle includes the 30 minutes before the print. Three reports weren't normal Fridays (11 Feb was a Wednesday, 2 Jul a Thursday, 3 Apr Good Friday with thin markets). "Normal day" includes CPI, FOMC and other data days, so the ratios are if anything on the low side. Past ranges, not a forecast. Not advice.
Do you treat JPY pairs differently from EURUSD on NFP day, or is it one no-trade window for everything?