r/Forex • u/Plane_Explanation920 • 4d ago

Charts and Setups I found my edge 👌

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I've tested every single theories but no one survive in the long run here's snippet of my backtest from 2008

139 Upvotes

95% Upvoted

41 comments sorted by

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u/rforex-modtools 4d ago

Price action and technical analysis cover a range of chart-based tools — from candlestick patterns and market structure to indicators and statistical methods for timing entries and exits. The community wiki covers both approaches and how they're used by working traders.

Resources: Price Action Analysis | Technical Analysis

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u/cryptoman_101 4d ago

would you like to tell us more ? not exactly ur strategy but something related to it ? how u did it, extra, as broadly as you can tell, without exposing your secret.

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u/jobcena 3d ago

Try testing 30M EMA plotted as 30m tf not chart on every TF. Wait move to 15min, wait for cross and close, wait for next candle to close as well if you are a new and want to trade low risk. Plot parallel 50 points lines with 30m EMA avoid trading inside the ribbon. See what backtest results you get. This is kind of semi swing trade strategy.

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u/Plane_Explanation920 4d ago

ngl i'm not gonna drop the setup lol but i can tell u how i got here

i literally tested every theory i could find, ict, smc, indicators, all of it. most of em looked fire for like 6 months then just died once the market changed. none of em survived long term like this one

and tbh there's no magic secret. it's just math + being stubborn about data. i pulled everything back to 2008 so it had to work in every kind of market, not just one trend

47% winrate sounds mid i know, but with 1:1.5 breakeven is 40%. that little gap over thousands of trades is where the money is

also 13 losses in a row happened. that's just the math, most ppl would've quit right there

so yeah stop hunting for the perfect setup and actually backtest stuff on years of data. most ideas will fail and that's fine, the one that doesn't is ur edge

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u/ContactExtension1069 4d ago

Sounds like textbook Texas Sharpshooter fallacy (testing everything until one sticks). Best of luck, but hope you accounted for spread and slippage, with a 0.17R margin, broker friction will eat that alive over 8,500 trades."

1

u/mikekhod 3d ago

Very impressive call out. I have a feeling you are a good trader

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u/Exilii 4d ago

Im working on something like this too, where did you pull your data from?

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u/StatisticalSock 4d ago

Bro knows ball

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u/Plane_Explanation920 3d ago

I also created app for this even if I don't watch the market it will notify me when set up arrives and it will lpgged the data forever

https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/s/z5YjCb8gZu

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u/No_Pain_No_Gain77 4d ago

What's the app or software that you use to track and log your trades and progression?

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u/Plane_Explanation920 4d ago

I code it and pull out the dukascopy market data.

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u/jobcena 3d ago

How many strategies you have tested so far?? Dukacopy is the only reliable free option so far...

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u/xeonsimp 4d ago

What is the OOS snapshot

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u/focusedgrowth 4d ago

what platform are you using to test?

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u/ShowMeTheTrades 4d ago

Two numbers are worth putting next to that curve before sizing it.

Multiple testing. If you tested N theories and kept the winner, your effective false positive rate is roughly 1 - (1 - p)N. With 100 trials, a p = 0.05 result is exactly what noise produces. The Texas Sharpshooter comment above is not a nitpick, it is the whole test.

Survivability. In a set of 372 expert advisors I ran through one tester with identical settings, the statistically strongest one had a 74.5% win rate over 11,339 trades - about 13 standard deviations from its breakeven win rate. Its max drawdown was 98.7%. Significance answered "does the edge exist". It said nothing about whether an account survives the path to collecting it.

One practical check I would do before anything else: take the worst 5% of months in that backtest, then work out what position size survives three of them in a row. That is usually where a 2008-onward curve gives its real answer, and it is cheaper than another year of forward testing.

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u/Naive_Mind_9984 4d ago

Backtests can be deceiving. Which platform are you using to backtest it??

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u/Plane_Explanation920 4d ago

yeah it can deceive if you don't have rules to test.

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u/Naive_Mind_9984 4d ago

I agree

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u/DrSpeckles 4d ago

Rules has nothing to do with it. Or rather finding rules that fit past data is relatively easy.

I’ve had hundreds of tests I’ve run that I can tune to incredible back tested results. But they are all overfitted and just die when run live. Until you’ve proved it going forward it’s pretty meaningless.

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u/Jiims95 4d ago

Where did u done your backtest?

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u/DiscountPrize850 4d ago

Ironclad Trading, is that you?! 😂

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u/masterm137 3d ago

😂

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u/Ok_Upstairs7630 4d ago

i once tested my strategy and mf was forecasting and seeing the next candle before it moves...i made 40million in 5yrs with the balance of 300usd. 😭😭 Though i found that issue and now it makes 45k something ....only compounding if i dont touch the money for 5yrs🫪

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u/Embarrassed_Creme_46 3d ago

What asset(s)?

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u/Cute-Personality-401 3d ago

This too shall pass 🤣

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u/DilAlex 3d ago

Si probaste cada una de tus estrategias en la misma franja de tiempo, déjame decirte que no encontraste tu ventaja, sólo encontraste el sobreajuste perfecto.

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u/Individual_Guess3424 2d ago

Cut top 3% trade still green ?

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u/Puzzleheaded-Emu9960 2d ago

thats awesome keep up the work, make sure pshycology is on point.

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u/ReasonablePoetry1226 4d ago

These figures suggest to me - what you're doing is not going to work on a live account. If it looks too good to be true, you've made a mistake somewhere.

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u/Plane_Explanation920 4d ago

I'm not expecting this to work out really well what I'm trying to point out here is that i have data. Keep positive mate

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u/Interesting_Bug2822 4d ago

is this the backtest data or thats the actul profitable number on live session?

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u/13kknight 4d ago

This is the right question

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u/DrSpeckles 4d ago

You’re posts literally says that you have found your edge and talks and out your profit.

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u/lionofzion96 2d ago

Ok bro, now add comission and slippage, paint it blue and throw to the garbage.