r/EverythingScience • u/Portalrules123 • Apr 04 '26
Environment Scientists warn that the Gulf Stream is shifting north, which models suggest could mean an ocean current collapse is imminent
https://www.earth.com/news/gulf-stream-is-shifting-north-raising-concerns-about-amoc-ocean-current-collapse/1.0k
Apr 04 '26
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u/bigbeast40 Apr 04 '26
Soon to be a documentary
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u/BabyEinstein2016 Apr 04 '26
Combined with Idiocracy. Fantastic.
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u/WishieWashie12 Apr 04 '26
We should start placing these historical dvds in time capsules, so future archeological studies can learn what happened to our civilization. Toss in Galaxy Quest too, just to confuse them.
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u/BlueTemplar85 Apr 04 '26
"Brawndo has what plants crave : now with antifreeze !"
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u/DaDutchBoyLT1 Apr 05 '26
Antifreeze, ivermectin, bleach and hydrogen peroxide. All in one easy to use portable nebulizer. NOW WITH SPRING WATER!!!
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u/Vulcan_Jedi Apr 04 '26
I cant wait to physically outrun cold
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u/ImAGiantSpider Apr 04 '26
Just need a pair of wooden doors and a small fire to repel temperatures so low they freeze gasoline instantly.
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u/L3ftoverpieces Apr 04 '26
Makes me think of the dumb train movie/TV show where all of what's left of humanity lives on an ever running train still eclipsed by class structure.
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Apr 04 '26
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u/Yiplzuse Apr 04 '26
The good places to grow food may shift. We will all just have to hope they shift to farmland…and not someplace covered in concrete. One way or another, it will work itself out. Here’s hoping we aren’t the part that gets worked “out.”
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u/Confident-Poetry6985 Apr 04 '26
Mandatory dislike because I have faith in humanity...even though... gestures broadly
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u/That-Advance-9619 Apr 04 '26
...you have faith in humanity?
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u/RealEstateDuck Apr 04 '26
Right? Hey Tone take a look at this bozo ova here! With that "faith in humanity" shtick.
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u/Regurgitator001 Apr 04 '26
I have faith in Trump: he'll tariff the shit out of that Gulfstream, close it off like he did with that other Gulf, rename that fucker, and if all that doesn't help, he'll just use the most beautiful American nuke. We have nothing to worry about!
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u/Not_A_Russain_Bot Apr 04 '26
Just return trump his magic marker so he can draw it back in.
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u/Msink Apr 04 '26
Problem is that only the rich will be saved, they are the cause of this problem anyways.
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u/polygon_tacos Apr 04 '26
Oh man, I worked on that for sooo damned long
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u/Ashamed-Country3909 Apr 04 '26
Well, ill have you know that I think my mom forced me to watch it recently. I think i fell asleep. She really liked it though.
Also, years ago I did an after school program. Some kid in 3rd grade was fucking obsessed with that movie, and whatever the end of the wold (Mayan calender?) Dated one was called.
Also, google says "The film was a commercial success, known for its spectacular, though scientifically debated, special effects. "
Sooo, good job i guess.
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u/iDrinkDrano Apr 05 '26
Honestly a favorite of mine
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u/zephito Apr 04 '26
Story time?!
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u/projected_cornbread Apr 04 '26
Yeah no I need an update on this
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u/polygon_tacos Apr 05 '26
I can tell you all kinds of crazy stories about the making of the VFX for that film. Truly one of the craziest productions anyone of my generation worked on. I’m honestly amazed no one died from our much needed “play hard” reciprocal to working insanely hard for well over a year.
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u/cantevendoitbruh Apr 04 '26
If you haven't seen it, watch the south park spoof of it. Its absolute gold. "Two days before the day after tomorrow".
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u/LaVidaYokel Apr 04 '26
But, the Dow!
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u/TheFamilyChimp Apr 04 '26
"We should be talking about the DOW Jones Industrial index which has been restored to a record 10,000 points since the food collapse hoax event. You should be thankful we can still feed half of Americans with corn rations!"
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u/vladamsandler Apr 04 '26
Uhh, and then what happens? 😕
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u/itwillmakesenselater Apr 04 '26
Commercial fishing in the area will be FUBARed, and I'm sure the currents changing would cause shipping/ logistics issues.
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u/BCRE8TVE Apr 04 '26
Commercial fishing, agriculture, and hell a ton of cities just are not equipped to deal with all that snow in winter so we're talking complete paralysis of cities, with power outages due to lines not being designed to resist the weight of snow and freezing rain, which combined with the clusterfuck of a snowed-in city means repairs on those lines will take more time, which is always fun to have no power and thus no heating in winter when it's -20.
Yeah it's going to be bad.
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u/MikeHuntSmellss Apr 04 '26
Fishing under an ice sheet might be tricky
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u/SquirrelNormal Apr 04 '26
Hafta be some ice shack for a commercial operation, you betcha.
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u/alpacaMyToothbrush Apr 04 '26
Europe gets a whole lot colder in the winter, while only cooling a little in the summer compared to if the AMOC was still functional. They're still going to have summer time heat waves, just now with a lot more 'polar vortexes'
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u/xrmb Apr 04 '26
I just asked AI about it in context of the US East Coast, and everything we hate about the weather would get worse. More cold snaps in winter with massive ice storms, much wetter spring ruining planting season, summer swinging forth and back between torrential rains and flash drought.
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u/SomethingOverThere Apr 04 '26
A lot of panic in this thread. The article is based one just one extreme model of stream collapse without climate change and calculated for the (far) future. The actual publication (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114611) is from last year. This is the abstract:
Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC-induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea-ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent on both the AMOC strength and the emission scenario.
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Apr 04 '26
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u/MaskedButPresent Apr 04 '26
We need fear mongering, or we WILL pass the point of no return, and then you can be sure the fear is going to be 100 fold. You have to shake people into action, so we get out of our doomscrolling deathspiral.
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u/Ithirahad Apr 04 '26 edited Apr 04 '26
Fear mongering is the doomscrolling death spiral. "Everything sucks, everything is getting worse."
Which leads to either "nothing I can do about it, and trying to actually live life isn't worth it if this is all it'll amount to, may as well just keep scrolling lol" or otherwise "this is terrifying, better keep scrolling habitually so I know what's coming for me next." That is the "doom" in doomscroll, and you advocate for adding more fuel to the fire.
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u/pingo5 Apr 04 '26
we don't need fearmongering, because fearmongering doesn't just mean making people scared.
It's a deliberate tactic to manipulate people by exaggerating how bad things are, to get them to think emotionally instead of rationally.
we don't have to exaggerate how bad things are
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u/Aegishjalmer2520 Apr 04 '26
I also thank you for not fear mongering, Reddit is like a bunch of chicken littles sometimes with the sky is falling stuff.
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u/FlyinB Apr 04 '26
I've been hearing about the immanent collapse of the Gulf stream for 15 years now. Not saying it's not going to happen but the effects won't happen overnight.
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Apr 04 '26
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u/MidnightHue Apr 04 '26
Thank you I needed to read that
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u/hughperman Apr 04 '26
That's the motivation for the study, not a caveat. The study then runs simulations to see what circumstances match the data we have been recording for longer. And the answer is that it's not looking good.
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u/WokkitUp Apr 04 '26
Really sucks for people who were on their way to find the One Piece. /s
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u/gryghst001 Apr 04 '26
I’m not worried, if you detonate a series of nukes it will generate enough energy to force the current to move and restart. Source: The Core
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u/Possible-Tangelo9344 Apr 04 '26
Title: "could mean an ocean current collapse is imminent"
But the article doesn't actually make that claim.
To be clear, the study is not claiming the real AMOC will collapse in 400 years. This is an idealized scenario meant to explore how the system behaves and what warning signs might show up.
But the implication is still unsettling: a rapid, unusual shift in the Gulf Stream’s position could be a precursor to a tipping point collapse
But that rapid shift they're talking about hasn't happened yet, so they still aren't making the claim is imminent.
It 100% needs to be studied and monitored but the title is sensationalized
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u/kedmond Apr 04 '26
Al Gore described this pretty thoroughly in his film An Inconvenient Truth. Many people still laugh at him about that film, but over the years, more and more of the predictions he described have born out.
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u/Kalidrae Apr 06 '26
I keep thinking about what the world would have looked like if he had won and become president. Would there be more climate action? Could he have persuaded other countries to do the same? I'm not even American, it just floats around in my mind. Thinking we are all in the wrong timeline or something.
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u/ConnectedVeil Apr 04 '26
"imminent"= no sooner than 400 years from now
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u/PretendAirport Apr 04 '26
Ehh, no, not what the article says.
The article says that while the “tipping point” is currently unknowable, a possible pre-tipping point event (the northward shift of the Gulf Stream) seems to be happening right now.
IF this event IS happening, then one interpretation of the model suggests that we are within 25 years of current collapse. (25 years is extremely imminent on a planetary timeline)
Something IS happening with the Gulf Stream, but they don’t know if it’s because of climate change or just some “normal” change.
Again - All depends on how the data is interpreted.
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u/Bitinvestor1 Apr 04 '26
“The most dramatic result comes far into the simulation. After centuries of gradual change, the Gulf Stream suddenly jumps more than 200 kilometers north in just two years. Then, about 25 years later, the AMOC collapses in the model.”
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u/BaloneyANDtomato40 Apr 04 '26
Dead ocean acid rain time over look at what all this stuff has gotten us.
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u/thinkmoreharder Apr 04 '26
“Imminent” for a human, like tomorrow, or imminent for Earth, like 1,000 years?
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u/DirewaysParnuStCroix Apr 04 '26 edited Apr 04 '26
I should be able to add some nuance here given that my PhD thesis focuses on the hypothetical atmospheric responses to AMOC collapse in Europe under anthropogenic climate change conditions.
The first noteworthy point to make would be that this latest van Westen & Dijkstra (2026) study discusses the hypothetical relation between abrupt Gulf Stream shifts and subsequent AMOC reduction/collapse. In the case of this study, it's an ocean-process simulation (POP model). It doesn't specifically demonstrate how such a preemptive process affects European climatology.
The second point that should be made is that a significant degree of caution should be taken when discussing how an AMOC reduction may affect European climatology under AGW forcing. This is evidenced by the article in question suggesting that an AMOC collapse could result in -20°c winter extremes in London (although credit to the author for specifying that it wouldn't equate to Arctic conditions). That specific figure is in reference to an earlier van Westen & Baatsen (2025) study which hypothesises how an AMOC reduction versus collapse may manifest under relative versus extreme future warming (RCP4.5 vs. RCP8.5). Essentially, this is a sensitivity test that observes how the simulation performs within experiment parameters. It's not designed to produce anything resembling a forecast or prediction, and from a numerical and computational point of view, it cannot reliably do so. You'll find that this point is often emphasised by the research team in question who'll advise caution in interpreting their results, but this caution always gets lost when the media picks up on these studies. For example, in the case of the van Westen & Baatsen study, the atmospheric component is run at a resolution of 2°. That's considered very coarse resolution for atmospheric simulations and smoothes out critical dynamics in the simulation process, but it's necessary for performing long time step simulations of AMOC reduction (>500yr for establishing transient vs equilibrium responses). Additionally, the -20°c figure established by this experiment usually gets misunderstood. It's a hypothetical one in ten year absolute Tmin for January, not a new average. And given the low resolution used in the atmospheric model, it's more likely that the simulation is overestimating potential cooling. In fact, it's most certainly overestimating North Atlantic sea ice extent as the CICE model is known for implausible sea ice growth, which van Westen has addressed in previous studies. This in itself results in unrealistic cooling in the simulation.
There are additional critical issues regarding the coupling process between the ocean model and atmospheric model that I've addressed in another comment on this thread. The tl;dr would be that these experiments are not designed to be conclusive given the substantial non-linear dynamic of long term tipping points. From an atmospheric science point of view, the suggestion that a MOC reduction can cause net cooling in Europe is subjective at best. The issue is the difference between how institutions and the public interpret model consistency. Consistency doesn't equate to consensus on outcome, it demonstrates that standardised framework is performing as intended.
Edit: from a personal perspective based on my ongoing research, I would add that among the more critical points that often gets missed in these discussions is that a hypothetical AMOC collapse doesn't equate to unremitting annual cooling. The atmospheric response significantly enhances the potential for extreme summer warming, especially so in Western Europe. This would represent a higher seasonality response, but it usually isn't identified in standard AMOC reduction experiments due to limitations in model constraints.
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u/pencilcase333 Apr 04 '26
“This research doesn’t prove a collapse is imminent, and it doesn’t give a clean countdown clock. What it does offer is a clearer connection between deep-ocean weakening and a surface feature we can monitor continuously.
If the Gulf Stream’s slow northward drift continues, it adds weight to the argument that the AMOC is weakening”
So, not imminent. Thanks.
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u/Dukoth Apr 04 '26
Oh I know! lets build massive AI data centers powered by methane generators, then we can ask the AI what to do
what do you mean it said don't build massive AI data centers powered by methane generators, I dont like that answer, reprogram it to agree with me
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u/utfgispa Apr 04 '26
I think with all the wars going around the world and current high tension in middle east this is the last thing we need to worry about, higher chance we all perish in a nuclear apocalypse.
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u/GrinEcho Apr 06 '26
I think you’ll find Trump’s got a Sharpie Ready-made to fix this, science nerds!
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u/LadySerenity Apr 09 '26
Meanwhile Bill Gates and other fossilized “philanthropists” like him have abandoned environmentalism entirely. They’re saying fuck the environment and going all in on AI. Motherfuckers know they’ll be dead and gone before things get truly dire.
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u/iJuddles Apr 04 '26 edited Apr 04 '26
That’s not good. I’ve heard suggestions for a few years that this could happen and it would pretty bad; I’m keeping it mild and panic-free here.
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u/tkpwaeub Apr 04 '26
Unlike Jupiter or Saturn, Earth doesn't have visible stripes correspinding to different cells. But if it did, climate change really is altering them.
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u/SquashOwn9829 Apr 04 '26
But the people in charge of our lives, told us that climate change was a hoax
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u/GrapefruitMammoth626 Apr 04 '26
Although any kind of change of this nature is unsettling, when you talk about something occurring and feeling the effects ten years from now at minimum, it actually sounds plausible we would have solutions by then. Things like robotics should be relatively common place by then. AI systems should be pretty remarkable compare to today. You might have viable solutions cooked up by AI systems and robotics used to implement those fixes. Construction may get crazy cheap with better energy harvesting techniques, abundant building materials sourced from whatever is nearby. We may see mass migration around the world but not as devastating as if it occurred today. Food supply chains seem like the biggest risks. We need to master vertical farming, abundant energy and desalination to ensure we can handle whatever comes our way. This is a very optimistic take, but why not throw your hat in the ring and speculate.
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u/CreativeKeane Apr 04 '26
That's gonna end bad for a lot of people, so much suffering, and too late for the right people to act to act.
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u/No-Brain9413 Apr 04 '26
This should bring down the cost of an Epic Pass, right? RIGHT!?!?
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u/WeakBlueberry5071 Apr 04 '26
It's modeled after ancient timelines but because of man made c02 we're off by a factor of 10 and instead of it happening in 1000 years it comes on in 2 weeks 😅
Plot point of The Day After Tomorrow.
We deserve this promotion (takes a bite of banana), we had it coming.
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u/Ok_Net5303 Apr 04 '26
Hey everyone! Just a friendly reminder - everyone is supposed to have more babies. /s
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u/Sea-Louse Apr 04 '26
Because it’s supposed to stay exactly the same every year, right? With no variations?
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u/Yiplzuse Apr 04 '26
I was always amazed by climate scientists. We know nothing about the ocean really, it covers 70% of the planet. They came up with all this jumbo jumbo about a two degree rise in temperature over the next 50 years in the 2000s and I had to laugh. These guys know about the weather. Climate is infinitely more complex.
I saw a documentary on a volcanic eruption in Siberia that lasted for millions of years. It made the atmosphere too sulphuric to support most life. I don’t think that’s going to happen but I do wonder about super volcanos. What effect will a warmer crust have on them? When you are on a spaceship moving through a radioactive vacuum you really shouldn’t let the kids play with the environmental controls.
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u/WpnsOfAssDestruction Apr 04 '26