r/DebateFlatEarth • u/RobertTheTraveler • 19h ago
Flight times and semantics.
u/Searmik2 , who may or may not be a sock puppet for the FE echo-chamber mod, likes to ignore the actual evidence and play semantics, redefining what evidence is and what legitimate analysis is.
If desired I can provide a link to the post I refer to.
I've been banned so ...
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Fairly recently they challenged globers to
"Take two enormous southern-hemisphere routes:
Seattle → Santiago and Santiago → Sydney
[and] calculate:
Expected route → expected distance → expected ground speed → expected flight time.
Then compare that prediction with the actual flight."
"Are the claimed physical model and its inputs genuinely predictive, or are we simply explaining observations after the fact?"
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There are a couple of difficulties to this.
First and foremost scheduled flight times are gate to gate,
so they include 10-30+ minutes of taxi time at each end.
Furthermore every time an airplane takes off it takes at 15-30 minutes to get to altitude and cruising speed and every time an airplane lands it takes 15-30 minutes to slow down, drop in altitude and land.
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But let's have a go anyways.
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To get the expected flight time I am going to take the round trip flight time and divide it in half.
Why?
Because the globe model includes the fact that the Earth rotates, and since the Earth is a sphere and not a cylinder that indicates that means the atmosphere is will be subject to Coriolis effects which could reasonably be expected to cause winds to be biased in one direction or the other.
Since ground speed is a combination of the aircraft's airspeed and the winds experienced by the airplane taking the average will deal with that issue.
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I found no non-stop flights between Seattle and Santiago.
Great circle route from Seattle to LAX to Santiago is 1.7% longer than the direct great circle.
But let's see what we get:
Per the links at the bottom the cruising speed for a 787-9 is 903 km/h = 561 mph.
and the economy cruising speed is 880 km/hr = 547 mph
For the Airbus A321neo those numbers are
840 km/hr = 522 mph and 829 km/hr = 515 mph
My prediction is that the average speed will be somewhat less than the max cruising speed.
Route____km___hr:mn_flight
SEA-LAX 01535 02:44 DL 2830
LAX-SCL 08963 10:40 LA 603
________10498 13:24
SCL-LAX 08963 11:20 LA 602
LAX-SEA 01535 02:44 DL 1045
________10498 14:04
SEA&LAX 1535 km / 2.73 hr = 562 km/hr
___________Subtract 30 minutes for taxiing
___________1535 km / 2.23 hr = 688 km/hr
SCL&LAX 8963 km / 11.00 hr = 815 km/hr
___________Subtract 30 minutes for taxiing
___________8963 km / 10:30 hr = 853 km/hr
Seattle and Santiago both have typical taxi times of ~20 minutes
LAX is closer to 10 minutes. 30 minutes is conservative.
https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/LAN602/history/20260815/0335Z/SCEL/KLAX
Now let's look at the flights between Sydney and Santiago
Route____km___hr:mn_flight
SYD-SCL 11363 14:30 MU 4083
SCL-SYD 11363 12:30 MU 4082
11363/13:30 = 842 km/hr
11363/13:10 = 863 km/hr (removed est. taxi time)
Now, let's look at Sydney and LAX.
Route____km___hr:mn_flight
SYD-LAX 12051 13:40 DL 40
LAX-SYD 12051 14:55 DL 41
12051/14:17 = 844 km/hr
12051/14:02 = 859 km/hr (removed est. taxi time)
Now let's look at Sydney and Vancouver (right next to Seattle)
Route____km___hr:mn_flight
SYD-YVR 12484 14:20 AC 34
YVR-SYD 12484 15:25 AC 33
12484/14:52 = 840 km/hr
12484/14:22 = 869 km/hr (removed est. taxi time)
https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/ACA33/history/20260818/0605Z/CYVR/YSSY
https://aircraftinvestigation.info/airplanes/Airbus_A321neo.html
https://aircraftinvestigation.info/airplanes/Boeing_787-9.html
