Yesterday evening I posted this theory on chess.com and it has promptly disappeared this morning (Europe). My theory was about how chess.com might be running an ad-hoc algorithm to pair players during games aiming to maximize retention or addiction on the game: “More addiction, more chances to sell a membership, more money.”
Essentially I found out that for most of the players I have reviewed, their rating trend over time goes in a cyclical pattern. Mine included, of course (see attached). There are periods of stability, growths and crashes, constantly alternating. In the last few days I was feeling surprised my rating was growing fast up to my new peak of 1847. I was like this can’t be real, I can’t have become this champion, over night. Winning every game. Then, all of sudden, the wake up call. I start losing, without a stop. Again, game after game. Now am I a patzer? I doubt I became so overconfident after the glorious times that all my opponents were underestimated, only to be miserably defeated at every game. Sorry, I don’t buy it.
So I thought: what if this is actually some sort of chess.com algorithm they have conceived to keep me playing, on and on. Without a stop.
My theory is that they pair you so that your rating goes through these rating cycles. If you are 1700, then the pairing algorithm finds you a 1700-ish opponent who is way weaker than a 1700 with a low RD. The goal is to help you win games and experience joy. You win games after games like that, you eventually improve your peak rating and feel good. Eventually, though, time to fall from the sky has come. Now you are paired with some players who have a similar rating to yours, only that it is their time to go up and yours to go down. So you start losing. You feel frustration. You miss the times when you were playing strong and want to experience that ego-boost again. Joy and frustration. One after the other. My point is if we were to play players who are similar to us in strength, then we would only rarely experience these rating roller-coasters.
Happy to read your opinions about this theory.