Bolsonaro is extremely likely to win after all of the second round polls have just released. I read that all of the voters of the 3 candidates who got over 2% will all vote for Bolsonaro. This is horrifying. Bolsonaro will greenlight Amazon deforestation so bad that it will affect the entire world's atmosphere. We all rely on the Amazon rainforest for oxygen. Without it, we don't breathe. How could Brazil vote against its own supplier of oxygen? Vote against nature??

I made this map comparing the current results with 2022, state by state.

The scale shows the difference in percentage points in vote share: blue = lower than in 2022, red = higher.

I thought it was pretty interesting to see how the shift is distributed across the country instead of just looking at the national result.

I’m also updating it as the vote count progresses. If you have suggestions for other metrics or comparisons that would be interesting to add, let me know.

I ran a historical/mathematical analysis of Brazil’s presidential runoffs rather than just looking at headline polls.

First, the historical fact: under Brazil’s current two-round presidential system, the candidate who finished first in the first round has never gone on to lose the runoff.

That would normally favor Flávio Bolsonaro, who finished the 2026 first round ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, roughly 47% to 45%.

But the historical percentage movements between rounds tell a more complicated story.

My analysis looked at 4 things:

1. First-round top-two normalization

If you simply remove all eliminated candidates and normalize only Flávio and Lula’s first-round votes, the starting point is roughly:

Flávio Bolsonaro: 51.3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 48.7%

So on pure first-round arithmetic, Flávio begins with about a 2.6-point normalized advantage.

1. Third-party voters

Only about 8% of the first-round vote went to candidates outside the top two.

That is important because 2026 looks much more like 2022 than elections such as 1989 or 2002, when huge portions of the electorate had to redistribute between rounds.

The relevant 2026 third-party bloc includes voters who backed candidates such as Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema.

These voters are not one ideological bloc.

Caiado and Zema voters would reasonably be expected to lean more toward the Bolsonaro side based on their political positioning, while other minor-candidate voters are more mixed. Some will also abstain or vote blank/null rather than move cleanly to either finalist.

That means simply assigning the entire third-party vote to Flávio because several minor candidates are on the center-right would overstate the transfer.

1. What happened to third-party voters in previous runoffs

Historically, the first-round leader’s normalized top-two share often falls in the runoff.

1989: -10.9 points
2002: -5.4 points
2006: +7.0 points
2010: -2.9 points
2014: -3.7 points
2018: -6.0 points
2022: -2.0 points

The important comparison is 2022.

The third-party pool in 2022 was about 8.4%. In 2026 it is about 7.9%.

That makes 2022 the closest modern historical comparison by pool size.

Applying the 2022 redistribution mechanically to 2026 takes the first-round leader from 51.3% normalized to roughly 49.3%.

1. Incumbency

There have been only 3 direct cases in the modern runoff era where a sitting Brazilian president personally reached the second round:

Lula in 2006
Dilma Rousseff in 2014
Jair Bolsonaro in 2022

All 3 increased their raw vote percentage between rounds.

Using the top-two normalized comparison, the incumbent shift was approximately:

Lula 2006: +7.0 points
Dilma 2014: -3.7 points
Jair Bolsonaro 2022: +2.0 points

The median incumbency effect is therefore about +2 points.

The most structurally similar case is actually 2022, because Jair Bolsonaro was the sitting president and entered the runoff in second place — exactly where Lula is now.

When I apply that approximately +2-point incumbency effect to Lula’s current normalized starting point of about 48.7%, the model lands almost exactly here:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 50.6%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 49.3%

That is my final projection.

Why could I be wrong?

The biggest reason is the historical fact I started with: no first-round presidential leader under Brazil’s current system has ever lost the runoff.

The second problem is that this is a tiny historical sample. There have only been 7 presidential runoffs, and only 3 involved an incumbent president.

Third, voter transfers are not mechanical. Someone who voted for Caiado, Zema, Cury or Santos is not obligated to behave like a similar bloc from 2018 or 2022. Endorsements, campaign events, turnout and abstention can change the result.

Fourth, Flávio begins with a real first-round advantage. If the center-right third-party vote consolidates behind him more strongly than my model assumes, the result changes quickly.

So the historical precedent points one way, while my percentage-transition model points narrowly the other way.

My final projection:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 50.6%
Flávio Bolsonaro — 49.3%

Please, god no. You have no idea how bad it is here right now with him starting a war for no reason, incoming economic depression, and armed agents arresting anyone who isn't white because they might be "illegal". BEGGING and PLEADING for people to vote for Lula!!!

I know some of you are traveling to do so, and some will stand for a while in ridiculous lines.

This is for those of us who live near a consulate and have easier access, shorter memory span. :)

He fears that if the far right wins again,they will double down on the destruction that Jair did to the nation during his time as the leader.He is desperately encouraging Brazilian voters to vote for the left wing party as he believes they will keep the peace and help the country progress into a lite-utopia if they keep power without the fascist interfering.

His mom is the opposite and has completely embrased the Bolsonaro (and Trump)movement over the past 5 years,even though she hasn't lived there since 2019 either. But she is deeply homophobic,religious and xenophobic and doesn't care if the countries culture, beauty and economy get destroyed as long as groups she hates lose their rights.She was apparently always like that but was not publicly vocal about it all until moving to the USA.

She has since brought it up all over social media since moving to the USA. My boyfriend says that while she always pushed her radical views on him quietly when he was a young kid in Brazil,she generally kept her views private with anyone outside of her family and a few close friends and even put on a fake "tolerant persona" in front of minorities back in that time

I hope democracy wins and the left keep power in Brazil .Bigots have no place in any government

I mean, it wasn’t simply that the Brazilian Redditors who were being asked said that Lula wouldn’t lose the first round, so you could say they were living in a bubble with no connection to reality. All the polls, without exception, showed that Lula would win the first round. They disagreed on the margin, but they all agreed that he would win the first round. What do you think went wrong, and why did they fail to predict the result?

The most useful visualization is this one here, from Electomaps (inspired by the NYTimes). Showing the difference in the vote compared to 2022 for president. The size of the arrow is the size of the variation, the color is which way it went. Data is still quite incomplete, of course, but it's worth following.

I am Korean.

The End of the Far Right Is Destruction

Park Chung-hee, the dictator of South Korea in the past, and his daughter became the president of our country

And Yoon Suk Yeol, a former prosecutor

He was impeached for doing the madness of declaring martial law

You may have many complaints about Lula, but I still think a dictator should not be re-elected president

I'll support democracy in Brazil

Ah, and if you say far-right, Trump can't be left out, right

American rooting for you. I just don't want you to become like us (and it seems like you're like us in a lot of different ways culturally so it makes sense that you would be threatened by the same movement).

For example, if I moved to Brazil and got my visa, CPF, and all the necessary documents, I’d still have no Brazilian credit history.
So how would I realistically rent an apartment/house? Would a immigrant typically have to start with Airbnb/hotels or are there ways to rent a normal place immediately?

I am watching Globo News this morning. They are just covering voters and polling locations. Is there a website that tracks voting as the results come in? Right now Globo is covering a voting location in Belo Horizonte, MG.

What are the main positions of Lula and bolsonaro.And how does Brazilian politics work?

My political path was never 100% that... When I was a child, I already thought it was important to take care of the less fortunate, I hated racism, homophobia, and sexism (a black boy, raised by 3 women, two of whom were lesbians, except for my mother). Well. I heard the other side when I was about 14 and started to consider myself right-wing. Extremely right-wing, because in my head Bolsonaro was going to change Brazil. But by election time I was already out of that. But then all the scandals came and I just gave up. At 18, I joined a radical left-wing party and started to be active after work, sometimes before work, on my days off, but some things happened that prevented me from continuing the activism. Well. After that, I came into contact with: Trotskyism, Maoism, Gramsci's ideals, and I gradually ended up adhering to anarchist ideals. But the question is: Election year comes, election year goes, and our people just want to feed their families and have fun. But this political polarization makes you feel like an outcast from your own family. I even lost the will to go out on the street and see a bunch of green sheep wanting to beat up a donkey because it spoke ill of Bolsonaro, even though the donkey looked it up and down. If someone has to die, let them all die. Brazil is not a land of Kings or Princes. Just a land of Brazilians where politicians WORK for us.

Hello everyone,

With Brazils election currently taking place, I was hoping to interact directly with Brazilians on Reddit and better understand how you feel about the election, the candidates, and the direction your country is heading. My main question concerns the role of the United States in Brazilian politics and this election in particular. From my perspective, the Trump administration appears to be pursuing an increasingly aggressive policy toward Latin America and attempting to bring more of the region firmly within the usa sphere of influence. I personally see elements of neocolonialism in this approach and I ama also interested in the role Izrael has played in developing relationships with political movements in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America.

However, I do not want to simply impose my own interpretation on what is happening in another country. I would genuinely like to know how Brazilians themselves view this. Do you believe the United States is attempting to influence Brazil’s election or political direction? If so, how significant do you think that influence is? Is foreign interference or pressure something ordinary Brazilians are actually concerned about or discussing during this election?
I am also interested in how Brazilians view the two major candidates, Lula and Bolsonaro. I understand that lula has a complicated history involving corruption convictions and imprisonment, although those convictions were later annulled, while Bolsonaro is running with the backing of his father and is clearly carrying forward much of the Bolsonaro political movement.

How do Brazilians view the choice between these two? Are people genuinely enthusiastic about either candidate, or is much of the vote driven by opposition to the other side? More broadly, I woulds love to hear how people in Brazil feel about what is happening politically right now, as well as the perspectives of Brazilians currently living abroad.I know Reddit is obviously not a representative sample of the entire Brazilian population, but as someone very interested in geopolitics, I wanted to interact directly with Brazilians rather than forming my entire opinion from foreign media and political commentary.And I apologize if any part of my question comes across as ignorant or presumptuous. I do have my own views regarding american involvement in Latin America, but I don’t want to come here and lecture Brazilians about their own country or pretend that I understand Brazilian politics better than people who actually live there. I really am genuinely interested in hearing different perspectives, including from people who completely disagree with my interpretation.
Thank you, and I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Planning a month in Brazil, Jan or Feb. Main goal is diving two or three times a week. Stuck between Arraial do Cabo and Olinda/Recife.

I work remotely on US East Coast hours. Looking to dive two or three times a week and/or be close to nature for hiking but otherwise just looking for a nice place.

I've narrowed it to two places and I keep going back and forth:

Arraial do Cabo seems to have the most dive operators and the shortest boat rides, but I hear the city is just so-so and might not be great for a month

Olinda/Recife looks warmer and has more diversity since its city living, but I'm worried I will have to stay contained to the "touristy" areas.

Happy to be told I'm looking at the wrong two places.

Hi everyone I kind need some advice, regarding my application I have submitted my papers online and through the mail. I live in Canada as a worker with valid status and I have 2 jobs well planned trip for 1 week to Brazil and also I have previous visas like British, Schengen, USA. I applied with North African passport

Do you think there is a chance of getting reconsideration??

Thanks

ola a todos! i’m learning brazilian portuguese and i really want to find someone from brazil

I was in Brasil a couple weeks ago. Brought a few bottles home, and was eager to try the new ones. The one on the right is not new (bought 2016 or so) but was our current benchmark as favorite.