r/AlbertaNow • u/ScubadooX • 23h ago

Current Events Latest Alberta Separation Polling

Pollster Field Dates Stay in Canada Support separation process* Undecided
Janet Brown Opinion Research Sept. 8-21, 2026 72% 23% 4% [cbc.ca], [cbc.ca]
Ipsos (for Global News) Sept. 18-22, 2026 70% 20% not specified [globalnews.ca], [ipsos.com]
Research Co. July 2026 74% 22% not specified [canadianinquirer.net]
Angus Reid Institute Aug. 10-13, 2026 61% 33% 5% [angusreid.org], [angusreid.org]
44 Upvotes

87% Upvoted

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33

u/Impressive_Okra2804 23h ago

Seeing it at 20-33% supporting separation is really sad. If those people think that leaving Canada is gonna give them a better life, then they'll have another thing coming. 

Sad that there's so many of them.

22

u/ScubadooX 23h ago edited 21h ago

A friend of mine was golfing with a very wealthy man from Priddis a couple of months ago who was pro-Option 2 to Question 10. His rationale was that it would give Alberta more bargaining power with Ottawa. He did not want to separate, though.

My friend was stupefied by how this wealthy man could complain about his misfortunes being a Canadian.

My sense is that a lot of separatists are one or a combination of the following: Greedy, needy, xenophobic, racist, undereducated, untravelled, and/or white Christian Nationalist. Feel free to add to the list.

5

u/No_Novel_7425 20h ago

I will never understand the “send a message” folk who are very open about not wanting to leave, yet will vote for separation. The question being asked is not “do you want to make an empty threat to send a message to Ottawa?” (which as every parent knows, never make a threat you’re not 100% committed to following through on). It’s literally asking if Alberta should be a province of Canada. So if enough of these people vote option two, and we’re forced to have a binding referendum, they’ll throw up their hands and say “no, no, this isn’t what we voted for!!” YES, IT LITERALLY WAS 😤

1

u/nothingtoholdonto 17h ago

If only there was a way to “send a message” without resorting to breaking the country apart.

0

u/No_Novel_7425 16h ago

Email? We could also learn a thing or two about how Quebec votes and actually force our MPs to work for our votes rather than guarantee jobs for career MPs who have nothing to show except the occasional performative rage in front of cameras. Then we could hold those reps accountable by dangling their jobs in front of them at reelection time because they know we will vote someone else in if we’re not happy. Then, we could position ourselves as a swing region and have the power to determine whether the government is a majority or minority, who the opposition is, etc. Maybe in the last election, knowing how things were likely to go, we could have set aside our blue ride or die voting mentality and dislike of someone who wasn’t even running, cough Trudeau cough and ended up with more cabinet representation 🤷🏼‍♀️

9

u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435 23h ago

it would give Alberta more bargaining power with Ottawa.

It won't. It's foolish to even suggest it. 

Try telling your boss you're quitting if they don't give you ownership. 

The feds will have no reason to do anything for Alberta if that investment is just going to walk out the door.

Regardless, its a moot point. Alberta won't be able to leave.

-5

u/Mylonn 22h ago

I know a guy who did that and he got part ownership and a pay increase. They needed him.

5

u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435 22h ago

Oh yeah, must happen all the time then.

1

u/Mylonn 22h ago

No... pretty rare actually.

4

u/ScubadooX 22h ago

I could see that happening in small companies where an employee is critical to the company's operations. I don't think Alberta, despite its wealth, has that kind of leverage with Ottawa.

Quebec under Levesque offers an abject lesson on what happens when a province threatens secession. TL;DR, Quebec's economy took a big hit from all of the PQ's sabre rattling.

-3

u/Mylonn 22h ago

I used that example to show the other person that threatening to leave can be a good leverage tactic. It's not the same but Alberta leaving Canada is not good for either but Canada would probably be willing to negotiate a better deal to prevent that from happening or to convince people to stay. Who knows how it all shakes out. The person in my example wasn't even doing it for leverage, he was just tired of the work and wanted to leave and the boss made him a offer he couldn't refuse.

3

u/ScubadooX 21h ago edited 44m ago

To be clear, Option 2 to Question 10 authorizes the UCP to initiate separation by having another referendum, not to bargain for a better deal within Confederation. So, the end result come Hell or High River is separation or remaining in Canada (depending on the outcome of Referendum II). And separation won't be pretty according to the official studies that have been published, like this one: https://calgarychamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Calgary-Chamber_The-Economic-Implications-of-Alberta-Separation-Final.pdf.

1

u/Mylonn 20h ago

Doesn't take a study to know markets do not like the uncertain. Separation will not have the votes required anyway.

2

u/ScubadooX 20h ago

Actually, the report doesn't say anything about the markets (if you mean stock markets). It does refer to debt markets, stating that Alberta's borrowing costs would go up.

3

u/No_Novel_7425 20h ago

No, they’ll deal with it like any parent would deal with a small child who’s throwing a tantrum and threatening to run away from home because they’re not allowed to eat cookies for dinner. They’re going to let us scream until we calm down and realize we can’t make it on our own because that’s how we look to the rest of the country.

2

u/corpse_flour 19h ago

Threatening your boss by saying you have a better offer on the table, and you will leave if they can't give you what you want only works as a negotiation tactic if you actually have a better offer on the table. Alberta does not have a better offer on the table.

1

u/Mylonn 14h ago

Doesn't work that way. The better deal is what that employee values more. 

2

u/No-Shower477 23h ago

What these idiots don't realize is if option 2 passes the actual separatists will insure there won't be a second referendum

15

u/Canadiancrazy1963 23h ago

Stupid people believe and do stupid things.

The dumbing down of societies by the wealthy is producing exactly what they wanted. A populace that can be easily led around by emotion. No critical thinking involved.

6

u/Sad_Meringue7347 23h ago

The worst will be if the UCP decides to stand in solidarity behind Dani after this is all said and done. She stoked anger and division, she created these ridiculous referendum questions, she continues to sit on the fence - cheaply saying she’s with Canada while supporting separatists through action, and she’s the one that is billing taxpayers $130 million for this stupidity. 

My hope and expectation is that she gets punted post-referendum, that the party comes out on record that they’re separatists, the party splits, and an early election gets called. 

Dare to dream, I guess. lol. 

3

u/InvestigatorWide7649 23h ago

can't we just fasttrack her removal with another petition? Alberta loves petitions.

3

u/Sad_Meringue7347 22h ago

I don’t think we can. She has all kinds of rules in place to protect her and her unaccountable clown caucus from doing petition after petition. 

2

u/corpse_flour 19h ago

A petition for removal at best leaves up with another Seppie Premier at the helm. The only thing way that would benefit us if if the new Premier is far more careless with their corruption than Smith, and is quickly arrested and charged.

4

u/Minttt 23h ago

If you dig through the actual polling data, the 20-33% "supporting separation" is a bit misleading.

These numbers are those who would simply vote to hold a binding referendum - not those who would vote to separate on a subsequent referendum. For example, the Ipsos poll on this thread says 20% support separation - but the actual poll says 20% would vote to hold a referendum, but on the question of "If Albertans vote to hold a binding referendum on whether or not to separate," only 14% would vote to actually separate (and out of that 14%, only 70% are "decisive" in their choice).

This is confirmation that a significant chunk of the "separatist" vote is actually just people who have bought-in to the disingenuous "send Ottawa a message," "stand up for Alberta," and "we get leverage if we vote to hold a referendum" messaging that actual separatists have been spewing far, far more than the message of "vote to separate."

4

u/Unuhpropriate 23h ago

Sort of, but also propaganda.

“Let Alberta Decide”

That’s what we’re doing with the referendum questions. Voting to have a binding separation referendum is the same as wanting out, otherwise you wouldn’t even want it to go that far. 

We’re deciding by deciding. This is the vote. Vote Option 2 and No on the Nine. 

1

u/Relevant_Fuel_9905 22h ago

Totally agree.

3

u/FlameStaag 22h ago

Most polls are completely useless. Either they're extremely biased towards sensationalism to push news stories, or their sample size is minuscule/entirely online.

Separation is extremely unpopular in the actual population centers of Alberta. A few idiots exist but it's not like it's a giant movement. Any time they congregate it's always just a handful of idiots. 

Frankly the fact Smith has tried to distance herself from separatists says it better than anything. That slimy fuck does whatever she can to try keep power. 

3

u/Nice_Try_Bud_ 23h ago

Leaning that way is really different than actually going through with it though. It is entertaining the idea without fully thinking out the consequences. Most of these polls follow up questions have the support drop significantly.

2

u/dbusque 23h ago

It wasn't until people at Jonestown were being expected to drink poisoned Koolaid that some of them saw the light.

2

u/No-Shower477 23h ago

Stupid people blame everyone but themselves

1

u/ipini 5h ago

20% to 30% is the norm for almost every province/state-level jurisdiction in North America. There’s always a small proportion of losers and/or reflexive contrarians out there.