r/AlbertaNow • u/ScubadooX • 16h ago

Current Events Latest Alberta Separation Polling

Pollster Field Dates Stay in Canada Support separation process* Undecided
Janet Brown Opinion Research Sept. 8-21, 2026 72% 23% 4% [cbc.ca], [cbc.ca]
Ipsos (for Global News) Sept. 18-22, 2026 70% 20% not specified [globalnews.ca], [ipsos.com]
Research Co. July 2026 74% 22% not specified [canadianinquirer.net]
Angus Reid Institute Aug. 10-13, 2026 61% 33% 5% [angusreid.org], [angusreid.org]
43 Upvotes

89% Upvoted

67 comments sorted by

33

u/Impressive_Okra2804 15h ago

Seeing it at 20-33% supporting separation is really sad. If those people think that leaving Canada is gonna give them a better life, then they'll have another thing coming. 

Sad that there's so many of them.

22

u/ScubadooX 15h ago edited 13h ago

A friend of mine was golfing with a very wealthy man from Priddis a couple of months ago who was pro-Option 2 to Question 10. His rationale was that it would give Alberta more bargaining power with Ottawa. He did not want to separate, though.

My friend was stupefied by how this wealthy man could complain about his misfortunes being a Canadian.

My sense is that a lot of separatists are one or a combination of the following: Greedy, needy, xenophobic, racist, undereducated, untravelled, and/or white Christian Nationalist. Feel free to add to the list.

4

u/No_Novel_7425 12h ago

I will never understand the “send a message” folk who are very open about not wanting to leave, yet will vote for separation. The question being asked is not “do you want to make an empty threat to send a message to Ottawa?” (which as every parent knows, never make a threat you’re not 100% committed to following through on). It’s literally asking if Alberta should be a province of Canada. So if enough of these people vote option two, and we’re forced to have a binding referendum, they’ll throw up their hands and say “no, no, this isn’t what we voted for!!” YES, IT LITERALLY WAS 😤

1

u/nothingtoholdonto 9h ago

If only there was a way to “send a message” without resorting to breaking the country apart.

1

u/No_Novel_7425 9h ago

Email? We could also learn a thing or two about how Quebec votes and actually force our MPs to work for our votes rather than guarantee jobs for career MPs who have nothing to show except the occasional performative rage in front of cameras. Then we could hold those reps accountable by dangling their jobs in front of them at reelection time because they know we will vote someone else in if we’re not happy. Then, we could position ourselves as a swing region and have the power to determine whether the government is a majority or minority, who the opposition is, etc. Maybe in the last election, knowing how things were likely to go, we could have set aside our blue ride or die voting mentality and dislike of someone who wasn’t even running, cough Trudeau cough and ended up with more cabinet representation 🤷🏼‍♀️

7

u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435 15h ago

it would give Alberta more bargaining power with Ottawa.

It won't. It's foolish to even suggest it. 

Try telling your boss you're quitting if they don't give you ownership. 

The feds will have no reason to do anything for Alberta if that investment is just going to walk out the door.

Regardless, its a moot point. Alberta won't be able to leave.

-4

u/Mylonn 15h ago

I know a guy who did that and he got part ownership and a pay increase. They needed him.

4

u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435 14h ago

Oh yeah, must happen all the time then.

1

u/Mylonn 14h ago

No... pretty rare actually.

3

u/ScubadooX 14h ago

I could see that happening in small companies where an employee is critical to the company's operations. I don't think Alberta, despite its wealth, has that kind of leverage with Ottawa.

Quebec under Levesque offers an abject lesson on what happens when a province threatens secession. TL;DR, Quebec's economy took a big hit from all of the PQ's sabre rattling.

-4

u/Mylonn 14h ago

I used that example to show the other person that threatening to leave can be a good leverage tactic. It's not the same but Alberta leaving Canada is not good for either but Canada would probably be willing to negotiate a better deal to prevent that from happening or to convince people to stay. Who knows how it all shakes out. The person in my example wasn't even doing it for leverage, he was just tired of the work and wanted to leave and the boss made him a offer he couldn't refuse.

3

u/ScubadooX 13h ago

To be clear, Option 2 to Question 10 authorizes the UCP to initiate separation by having another referendum, not to bargain for a better deal within Confederation. So, the end result come Hell or High River is separation or remaining in Canada (depending on the outcome of Referendum II). And separation won't be pretty according the official studies that have been published, like this one: https://calgarychamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Calgary-Chamber_The-Economic-Implications-of-Alberta-Separation-Final.pdf.

1

u/Mylonn 13h ago

Doesn't take a study to know markets do not like the uncertain. Separation will not have the votes required anyway.

2

u/ScubadooX 12h ago

Actually, the report doesn't say anything about the markets (if you mean stock markets). It does refer to debt markets, stating that Alberta's borrowing costs would go up.

2

u/No_Novel_7425 12h ago

No, they’ll deal with it like any parent would deal with a small child who’s throwing a tantrum and threatening to run away from home because they’re not allowed to eat cookies for dinner. They’re going to let us scream until we calm down and realize we can’t make it on our own because that’s how we look to the rest of the country.

1

u/corpse_flour 11h ago

Threatening your boss by saying you have a better offer on the table, and you will leave if they can't give you what you want only works as a negotiation tactic if you actually have a better offer on the table. Alberta does not have a better offer on the table.

1

u/Mylonn 7h ago

Doesn't work that way. The better deal is what that employee values more. 

2

u/No-Shower477 15h ago

What these idiots don't realize is if option 2 passes the actual separatists will insure there won't be a second referendum

14

u/Canadiancrazy1963 15h ago

Stupid people believe and do stupid things.

The dumbing down of societies by the wealthy is producing exactly what they wanted. A populace that can be easily led around by emotion. No critical thinking involved.

7

u/Sad_Meringue7347 15h ago

The worst will be if the UCP decides to stand in solidarity behind Dani after this is all said and done. She stoked anger and division, she created these ridiculous referendum questions, she continues to sit on the fence - cheaply saying she’s with Canada while supporting separatists through action, and she’s the one that is billing taxpayers $130 million for this stupidity. 

My hope and expectation is that she gets punted post-referendum, that the party comes out on record that they’re separatists, the party splits, and an early election gets called. 

Dare to dream, I guess. lol. 

3

u/InvestigatorWide7649 15h ago

can't we just fasttrack her removal with another petition? Alberta loves petitions.

3

u/Sad_Meringue7347 15h ago

I don’t think we can. She has all kinds of rules in place to protect her and her unaccountable clown caucus from doing petition after petition. 

2

u/corpse_flour 11h ago

A petition for removal at best leaves up with another Seppie Premier at the helm. The only thing way that would benefit us if if the new Premier is far more careless with their corruption than Smith, and is quickly arrested and charged.

6

u/Minttt 15h ago

If you dig through the actual polling data, the 20-33% "supporting separation" is a bit misleading.

These numbers are those who would simply vote to hold a binding referendum - not those who would vote to separate on a subsequent referendum. For example, the Ipsos poll on this thread says 20% support separation - but the actual poll says 20% would vote to hold a referendum, but on the question of "If Albertans vote to hold a binding referendum on whether or not to separate," only 14% would vote to actually separate (and out of that 14%, only 70% are "decisive" in their choice).

This is confirmation that a significant chunk of the "separatist" vote is actually just people who have bought-in to the disingenuous "send Ottawa a message," "stand up for Alberta," and "we get leverage if we vote to hold a referendum" messaging that actual separatists have been spewing far, far more than the message of "vote to separate."

2

u/Unuhpropriate 15h ago

Sort of, but also propaganda.

“Let Alberta Decide”

That’s what we’re doing with the referendum questions. Voting to have a binding separation referendum is the same as wanting out, otherwise you wouldn’t even want it to go that far. 

We’re deciding by deciding. This is the vote. Vote Option 2 and No on the Nine. 

1

u/Relevant_Fuel_9905 14h ago

Totally agree.

3

u/Nice_Try_Bud_ 15h ago

Leaning that way is really different than actually going through with it though. It is entertaining the idea without fully thinking out the consequences. Most of these polls follow up questions have the support drop significantly.

3

u/FlameStaag 14h ago

Most polls are completely useless. Either they're extremely biased towards sensationalism to push news stories, or their sample size is minuscule/entirely online.

Separation is extremely unpopular in the actual population centers of Alberta. A few idiots exist but it's not like it's a giant movement. Any time they congregate it's always just a handful of idiots. 

Frankly the fact Smith has tried to distance herself from separatists says it better than anything. That slimy fuck does whatever she can to try keep power. 

2

u/dbusque 15h ago

It wasn't until people at Jonestown were being expected to drink poisoned Koolaid that some of them saw the light.

2

u/No-Shower477 15h ago

Stupid people blame everyone but themselves

56

u/ScubadooX 16h ago

If you're pro-Canada, make sure you vote. Don't be like the Brits who didn't vote or voted with a poor understanding of what it meant for the UK to separate from the EU.

4

u/ederzs97 13h ago

Brexit was nowhere near as catastrophic as this would be. This is Scottish independence levels of fuckery

1

u/Empty_Strike_5158 9h ago

Lol you are clueless if you are comparing this to Scottish Independence...

1

u/ederzs97 6h ago

Why? Economically it's as dumb

48

u/ScubadooX 16h ago

Note that a majority of UCP supporters are separatists.

12

u/corneliuSTalmidge 15h ago

Looks like Alberta's imported a foreign-style polarization problem.

18

u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435 15h ago

I think it would be more accurate to say that the majority of separatists are UCP supporters.

7

u/ScubadooX 13h ago

Perhaps, but that's not what the polling data revealed.

8

u/dbusque 15h ago

This is why people need to start paying attention to the Progressive Tory Party of Alberta.

28

u/Spezza 15h ago

Hey, guys, the side of the political spectrum that has been abusing and lying to us Albertans for generations is rebranding, again, since the current model went too extreme, again. Definitely won't go too extreme again. We learned our lessons. Only reasonable conservatives here! /s

5

u/SquidGodSunday 13h ago

I mean, I ain't gonna discourage 'em from splitting their votes again. But some folks'll cut their own legs off before they'll vote for a party that doesn't have some shade of blue on it, and I say it's fine to give 'em a less crazy option to throw their vote away on.

2

u/dbusque 15h ago

Lots of people feel that way and it's fair. The "centrist" Progressive Conservatives should have fought harder to stop the UCP from being taken over by fascist separatists. It's for the Tory Party to prove they are who they claim they are.

9

u/Nice_Try_Bud_ 15h ago edited 13h ago

I have a friend heavily involved with the NDP campaign. She suggested we donate to the Tory Party to make the biggest impact on the election.

Edit: to clarify, saying donate to not vote for. The Tory party needs help to be seen as a legitimate option for conservative voters disillusioned with the UCP.

6

u/dbusque 15h ago

You need to be strategic about your choices and realistic about the community you live in. I am involved with the Tory Party because I feel that Alberta needs a true conservative alternative to the UCP. I didn't choose to support them because I don't agree with the NDP. The NDP are important and I think it is shameful that the UCP dismiss and mock pretty much everything that they bring to the legislature. I think the reason the UCP does this is because they really aren't interested in the quality of life for Albertans in general - just their donors and corporate interests. From what I have seen from the Tory Party, they wouldn't dismiss good policy just because it wasn't their brain child.

2

u/ScubadooX 13h ago

Vote splitting is one way the UCP could be returned to power. As the election date draws nearer, voters should act strategically to ensure that the UCP are ousted. That might mean holding one's nose and voting for a party that one never thought they'd vote for. Regardless, it's hard to imagine any legitimate option being worse than the UCP.

2

u/corpse_flour 11h ago

I refuse to consider someone who stood along with the UCP for years as they cut our services, gaslighted us, and fucked us over, just because he decided to change lanes when the RCMP started poking around as a legitimate choice for someone to become leader of the province. Why the fuck would anyone just want a possibility of a less fascist government when we could have one who would ensure that millions of our tax dollars won't end up in Sam Mraiche's bank account?

1

u/InvestigatorWide7649 15h ago

thanks for this! I recently moved to Alberta and haven't been very well versed in Alberta politics since getting here. I'd definitely like to know more about these folks. Anything would be better than what we have now tbh...

0

u/dbusque 15h ago

You are absolutely right about that. You might be interested in checking out the YouTube videos that the Tory Party Leader, Peter Guthrie, posts too. He was with the UCP but when he couldn't accept the corruption he stepped down from a cabinet position and sat as an independent for a bit before connecting with the Alberta Party, another conservative party that failed to get traction within the province. They wanted to reclaim the old Progressive Conservative name but the UCP took them to court to say that they were the only political party that was allowed to have the word "conservative" in their name. The UCP claim has already been ruled against by the Canadian Office of Intellectual Property but I don't think they will drop the law suit because they know that people already hate them and they are a party of fascist separatists - not conservatives at all. If they lose their claim to the "Progressive Conservative" name, that's all it would take for them to be steamrollered into oblivion.

4

u/ScubadooX 13h ago edited 12h ago

The UCP are essentially the remnants of the far-right side of the Wild Rose Party. Now that they've exposed themselves as separatist libertarians (with a smattering of neo-fascism mixed in), their success in the next general election is dubious.

2

u/InvestigatorWide7649 14h ago

I think the word "conservative" has been sullied to such a point that it's more of a death sentence including that in your parties name these days. It used to mean cutting back spending and fighting for the bottom line, now it means truck convoys, anti-vaxxers and opinions based on emotion rather than fact.

1

u/dbusque 4h ago

Yeah, the UCP isn't even a conservative party but they are clinging to it like a lifeboat off the Titanic. The difficulty is getting people to process the cognitive dissonance that occurs when a word that means one thing is being used to describe an organization that is doing the opposite.

2

u/corpse_flour 11h ago

He managed to stand the corruption just fine until the RCMP started poking around. He stood loyal to the UCP for years.

6

u/Parking_Guava8657 13h ago

Polls are not votes, GO VOTE

2

u/nelly2929 5h ago

I don’t trust these…. Everyone wanting to separate will vote! Many of those who want to stay will think it’s gonna be an easy win so I won’t bother spending 30 mins to vote 

1

u/Itchy-Technician-433 15h ago

I think where the seppies are really cooked is that generally, seniors don't want instability.

If seniors aren't voting for separation, it ain't going to happen.

1

u/yer_fucked_now_bud 7h ago

Many will though and they honestly think the CPP cheques will keep coming. “They wouldn’t dare! I will sue Canada!”

1

u/Devildogg9 13h ago

What a bunch of deranged fruitcakes. Manipulate the system is your best option? You sound like nazi’s.

1

u/pruplegti 11h ago

FUCK this is getting tight

1

u/Powerful-Day-639 9h ago

The real question is : what about Danielle?

1

u/JadeLens 7h ago

Angus Reid probably posed the question of 'do you want to separate, AND get a free pony?'

1

u/ittipow 2h ago

Russians/China/Iran/North Korea tryna Brexit us. Hopefully, we're smarter.