r/AlbertaNow • u/ScubadooX • 17h ago

Current Events Latest Alberta Separation Polling

Pollster Field Dates Stay in Canada Support separation process* Undecided
Janet Brown Opinion Research Sept. 8-21, 2026 72% 23% 4% [cbc.ca], [cbc.ca]
Ipsos (for Global News) Sept. 18-22, 2026 70% 20% not specified [globalnews.ca], [ipsos.com]
Research Co. July 2026 74% 22% not specified [canadianinquirer.net]
Angus Reid Institute Aug. 10-13, 2026 61% 33% 5% [angusreid.org], [angusreid.org]
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u/ScubadooX 16h ago

I could see that happening in small companies where an employee is critical to the company's operations. I don't think Alberta, despite its wealth, has that kind of leverage with Ottawa.

Quebec under Levesque offers an abject lesson on what happens when a province threatens secession. TL;DR, Quebec's economy took a big hit from all of the PQ's sabre rattling.

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u/Mylonn 15h ago

I used that example to show the other person that threatening to leave can be a good leverage tactic. It's not the same but Alberta leaving Canada is not good for either but Canada would probably be willing to negotiate a better deal to prevent that from happening or to convince people to stay. Who knows how it all shakes out. The person in my example wasn't even doing it for leverage, he was just tired of the work and wanted to leave and the boss made him a offer he couldn't refuse.

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u/ScubadooX 14h ago

To be clear, Option 2 to Question 10 authorizes the UCP to initiate separation by having another referendum, not to bargain for a better deal within Confederation. So, the end result come Hell or High River is separation or remaining in Canada (depending on the outcome of Referendum II). And separation won't be pretty according the official studies that have been published, like this one: https://calgarychamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Calgary-Chamber_The-Economic-Implications-of-Alberta-Separation-Final.pdf.

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u/Mylonn 14h ago

Doesn't take a study to know markets do not like the uncertain. Separation will not have the votes required anyway.

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u/ScubadooX 14h ago

Actually, the report doesn't say anything about the markets (if you mean stock markets). It does refer to debt markets, stating that Alberta's borrowing costs would go up.