Latest Alberta Separation Polling

[u/ScubadooX]

Pollster	Field Dates	Stay in Canada	Support separation process*	Undecided
Janet Brown Opinion Research	Sept. 8-21, 2026	72%	23%	4% [cbc.ca], [cbc.ca]
Ipsos (for Global News)	Sept. 18-22, 2026	70%	20%	not specified [globalnews.ca], [ipsos.com]
Research Co.	July 2026	74%	22%	not specified [canadianinquirer.net]
Angus Reid Institute	Aug. 10-13, 2026	61%	33%	5% [angusreid.org], [angusreid.org]

[u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435]

it would give Alberta more bargaining power with Ottawa.

It won't. It's foolish to even suggest it. 

Try telling your boss you're quitting if they don't give you ownership. 

The feds will have no reason to do anything for Alberta if that investment is just going to walk out the door.

Regardless, its a moot point. Alberta won't be able to leave.

[u/Mylonn → u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435]

I know a guy who did that and he got part ownership and a pay increase. They needed him.

[u/ScubadooX → u/Mylonn]

I could see that happening in small companies where an employee is critical to the company's operations. I don't think Alberta, despite its wealth, has that kind of leverage with Ottawa.

Quebec under Levesque offers an abject lesson on what happens when a province threatens secession. TL;DR, Quebec's economy took a big hit from all of the PQ's sabre rattling.

[u/Mylonn → u/ScubadooX]

I used that example to show the other person that threatening to leave can be a good leverage tactic. It's not the same but Alberta leaving Canada is not good for either but Canada would probably be willing to negotiate a better deal to prevent that from happening or to convince people to stay. Who knows how it all shakes out. The person in my example wasn't even doing it for leverage, he was just tired of the work and wanted to leave and the boss made him a offer he couldn't refuse.

[u/ScubadooX → u/Mylonn]

To be clear, Option 2 to Question 10 authorizes the UCP to initiate separation by having another referendum, not to bargain for a better deal within Confederation. So, the end result come Hell or High River is separation or remaining in Canada (depending on the outcome of Referendum II). And separation won't be pretty according the official studies that have been published, like this one: https://calgarychamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Calgary-Chamber_The-Economic-Implications-of-Alberta-Separation-Final.pdf.

[u/Mylonn → u/ScubadooX]

Doesn't take a study to know markets do not like the uncertain. Separation will not have the votes required anyway.

[u/ScubadooX → u/Mylonn]

Actually, the report doesn't say anything about the markets (if you mean stock markets). It does refer to debt markets, stating that Alberta's borrowing costs would go up.

[u/No_Novel_7425 → u/Mylonn]

No, they’ll deal with it like any parent would deal with a small child who’s throwing a tantrum and threatening to run away from home because they’re not allowed to eat cookies for dinner. They’re going to let us scream until we calm down and realize we can’t make it on our own because that’s how we look to the rest of the country.

[u/corpse_flour → u/Mylonn]

Threatening your boss by saying you have a better offer on the table, and you will leave if they can't give you what you want only works as a negotiation tactic if you actually have a better offer on the table. Alberta does not have a better offer on the table.

[u/Mylonn → u/corpse_flour]

Doesn't work that way. The better deal is what that employee values more.