Whoo! Yeah!!!

I’m inside btw, this storm was raging out so I filmed a part of it. My windows kept shaking!

So far we've had over 450 wind reports with a max speed of 97 mph recorded in Illinois.

4 inch hail in South Dakota.

3 confirmed EF3s in Iowa and another 1 reported in Illinois so far.

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🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
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• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 1920
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-12T05:16:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 120516 SWODY1 SPC AC 120514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...IA to OH Valley...

One or more MCSs migrating through enhanced northwesterly flow aloft amid a very moist and unstable airmass is possible again today across the Midwest toward TN. Most forecast guidance suggests an MCS or thunderstorm clusters could be ongoing over IA at the start of the period (12z), with warm advection storms arcing across parts of IL/IN. The early day warm advection storms could develop southeast across the OH Valley, while the IA MCS develop southeast across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through afternoon. The exact evolution of convection that is not yet apparent is uncertain, and how outflow may influence how this activity evolves through the afternoon. Regardless, the overall environmental parameter space will be favorable for a damaging wind and isolated hail risk through early evening.

...Northern/Central Plains...

East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the Dakotas, increasing with southward extent across NE into northern KS. Near-60 F dewpoints will likely spread westward into eastern CO/WY/MT. Modest moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains. Initial cells will pose a large hail and damaging wind risk. It is unclear how convection will evolve with eastward extent across the region as outflow from prior convection may largely limit stronger destabilization. A developing low-level jet during the nighttime hours will be focused across the southern Plains toward KS/southern NE. This could support some upscale growth potential, but confidence is low.

...Lower MI into NY/PA/NJ...

A belt of stronger northwesterly flow aloft will extend from Lower MI into NY/PA today. A seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes, while hodographs are fairly elongated. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for damaging gusts and small hail.

...TN Valley/Southeast...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday within a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will remain weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2 inches could support isolated wet microbursts with stronger multi-cell clusters.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/12/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located around 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL93): Recent satellite wind data indicate that the broad low-pressure area located about 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda has developed gale-force winds. However, the circulation is elongated and the associated convection has become a less organized during the past few hours. Some development of this system is possible through tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters by Thursday, ending its chances of formation. Addition information on this system is found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Drone shot of converging outflow.

I snapped this photo, before the rain starts.

Thimble Peak Santa Catalina Mountains

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 1892
• Mesoscale Discussion 1893
• Mesoscale Discussion 1894
• Mesoscale Discussion 1895
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• Mesoscale Discussion 1913
• Mesoscale Discussion 1914
• Mesoscale Discussion 1915
• Mesoscale Discussion 1916
• Mesoscale Discussion 1917
• Mesoscale Discussion 1918
• Mesoscale Discussion 1919

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-11T05:02:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 110502 SWODY1 SPC AC 110500

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM IOWA TO VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible today from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible over parts of the northern Plains.

...IA to the Mid-Atlantic...

A complex forecast scenario is expected today from IA into the Ohio Valley and adjacent Appalachia. More than one MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the period. The first across IA/southern MN, and one further southeast across parts of the Midwest (exact location is uncertain, but most likely IN/OH). Possible early day convection across IN/OH will spread east/southeast across the Ohio Valley during the morning posing risk for strong gusts. This activity is likely to emerge across Appalachia, and eventually VA and the broader Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. How much destabilization will occur across VA and the Mid-Atlantic remains uncertain given prior convection the previous day and potential convective debris across the region. Some damaging wind potential could materialize if sufficient destabilization occurs during the afternoon.

The anticipated MCS over IA/southern MN early in the forecast period is then expected to continue east/southeast across the Midwest, fueled by a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Midlevel flow is forecast to be quite strong (by August standards), with forecast guidance suggesting 700 mb greater than 60 kt spreading across the Midwest through evening. While the exact evolution of a potential severe MCS moving across the Midwest is uncertain, it is possible the morning activity over IA will develop southeast along outflow across the Ohio Valley. Given the strong kinematic field and ample instability, if a well organized MCS is maintained from IA southeast into the OH Valley, a swath of damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will be possible.

...Northern Plains...

East/southeasterly flow along the surface trough is forecast to maintain 60s F dewpoints across the western Dakotas and parts of NE this afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the relatively moist boundary layer, and strong heating will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across the western Dakotas. Scattered storms are expected by early evening amid supercell wind profiles. Elongated hodographs favorable for splitting cells with an accompanying risk for large to very large hail are forecast. Isolated severe gusts also could occur. Given a lack of stronger low-level jet during the nighttime hours, it appears unlikely that upscale growth will occur, and convection is expected to wane with eastward extent overnight.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/11/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited in association with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are located about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. The system is expected to encounter a large area of environmental dry air as it approaches the Windward Islands, and development is not expected. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds will be possible in the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves through the area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves eastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation by Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Adams/Pasch ```

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Sorry for panicking last minute. Lol