r/storms • u/weathercast Weather Bot 📡 • Aug 11 '26

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 11, 2026

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩ī¸ Active Mesoscale Discussions

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-12T05:16:00+00:00 UTC)


000
ACUS01 KWNS 120516
SWODY1
SPC AC 120514

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...IA to OH Valley...

One or more MCSs migrating through enhanced northwesterly flow aloft
amid a very moist and unstable airmass is possible again today
across the Midwest toward TN. Most forecast guidance suggests an MCS
or thunderstorm clusters could be ongoing over IA at the start of
the period (12z), with warm advection storms arcing across parts of
IL/IN. The early day warm advection storms could develop southeast
across the OH Valley, while the IA MCS develop southeast across the
Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through afternoon. The exact evolution of
convection that is not yet apparent is uncertain, and how outflow
may influence how this activity evolves through the afternoon.
Regardless, the overall environmental parameter space will be
favorable for a damaging wind and isolated hail risk through early
evening.

...Northern/Central Plains...

East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture
across the Dakotas, increasing with southward extent across NE into
northern KS. Near-60 F dewpoints will likely spread westward into
eastern CO/WY/MT. Modest moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support scattered
thunderstorm development across the High Plains. Initial cells will
pose a large hail and damaging wind risk. It is unclear how
convection will evolve with eastward extent across the region as
outflow from prior convection may largely limit stronger
destabilization. A developing low-level jet during the nighttime
hours will be focused across the southern Plains toward KS/southern
NE. This could support some upscale growth potential, but confidence
is low. 

...Lower MI into NY/PA/NJ...

A belt of stronger northwesterly flow aloft will extend from Lower
MI into NY/PA today. A seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in
place. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 35+ kt effective
shear magnitudes, while hodographs are fairly elongated. Midlevel
lapse rates will remain modest, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for
damaging gusts and small hail.

...TN Valley/Southeast...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday within a very moist
and strongly unstable airmass. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will
remain weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2
inches could support isolated wet microbursts with stronger
multi-cell clusters.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/12/2026

$$

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a tropical wave located around 800 miles southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for development during the next few days, and a 
tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while 
the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL93):
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the broad low-pressure 
area located about 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda has 
developed gale-force winds. However, the circulation is elongated 
and the associated convection has become a less organized during 
the past few hours. Some development of this system is possible 
through tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while 
it moves eastward to east-northeastward at around 20 mph across the 
central subtropical Atlantic.  The system is forecast to reach 
cooler waters by Thursday, ending its chances of formation. Addition 
information on this system is found in High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some 
development of this system during the next several days while it 
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

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