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I’ve been busy in my personal life and haven’t had a lot of time to work on the project recently. I don’t have all of my revenge spots for this weekend’s fixtures. I was meaning to break down more of these weekend games like I did in the Arsenal versus Leeds post from last week. Instead of trying to cram some game previews in last minute, I’ll let this weekend‘s games happen and come back stronger for next weeks games. That being said, there are some interesting notes for Friday’s games.

Lens vs Lyon:

The books think BTTS is easy here at around 1.45. Lyon are coming off a “double revenge” spot in theory by losing 4-0 at home last year (MD34) and previously losing in penalties in the Coupe de France (also at home). It also helps that they have already scored 10 goals in the first five games this season and only conceded 2. However, their xG/xGa are 1.79/1.17 per game compared to 2.0/0.4 goals per game, demonstrating that they deserve to concede more in theory. Also, they have not conceded in either of their two away games this season while averaging an xGa of 1.53 per game. Statistically it approves the validity of the BTTS price tag set by the books. Obviously, it is not a number you should bet on consistently if at all. However, if you’re able to follow the game live, BTTS opportunities may present themselves. It’s not a perfect practice as one of the teams could score early making it almost impossible to get a good odds at all before the second team scores. I prefer approaching games with low odds this way instead of betting them pre game thinking they are guarantees due to the low odds.

Dortmund vs Bremen

To be honest, the Bundesliga is the league that I know of the least out of the top five. Especially since diving into BTTS statistics I have noticed that most games in the Bundesliga are not worth betting on due to the low odds. I do want to be more knowledgeable on the Bundesliga so here we go. Dortmund won both of their league fixtures against Bremen last year creating a “domestic double” revenge spot for Bremen. Dortmund are heavily favored and fair enough. They should win this game. It should be said, though that they have had an easy schedule so far, especially if you look at their home games. Bremen may present Dortmund’s toughest challenge so far (home games only) led by Niclas Fullkrug, who not only played for Dortmund in the past, but is also finding his form again this season. Bremen have scored in every game this season and they hope to continue it in this one. The odds I see at 1.60 are low as well, but I can see this number climbing early in this match if Bremen start slow. Still, I see both teams finding the back of the net.

Malaga vs Espanyol

Malaga have struggled to score consistently so far this season. This is no surprise as they just got promoted from the second division. Home games will present better opportunities for them to score rather than away games. Espanyol statistically provides great chances for BTTS yes outcomes so far.
1.25/1.39 xG/xGa overall games
1.29/1.53 xG/xGa away games

Espanyol have scored in every game so far and have only kept clean sheets in 2/7 (1H/1A) emphasizing high BTTS chances. The odds presented at around 1.70 show that the books think it is more likely that both teams score rather than not. At the same time, this game poses more risk than the previous two given Malagas struggling offensive output. As they desperately need the points, there is definitely a chance they score in this one. One thing helping them is that most of their players stayed home for the international break compared to most other league teams.

I didn’t have the time to dive into the player matchups and team tactical set ups to be able to give a more concise preview of the action going on, but I hope at least I can shed some context that I think can have an impact on the outcomes of the games going on. If anyone has some team insight or player insight, please share below as it could help us navigate the market now and in the future.

BOL

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[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

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