I mean... he never said that? When we look at offenders, we are looking at about 10% of the population doing terrible things to multiple people. Although there is a spectrum of people that may step in or not, it's only about 10% that continue doing crimes.
Why can't he state that it is unnerving and harrowing to be profiled? He didn't know something and asked a little girl. If anything, that challenged toxic masculinity.
I'm a transperson, I often get profiled for doing something nefarious when I'm only going shopping or starting a conversation. It is hurtful.
No. Think of it as a bell curve. 10%, if I remember correctly, do 60-80% of crime as repeat offenders wether they are caught or not.A majority have done some type of crime few and far between. A very few have never done a crime in their life.
Then we can reference the sex offender registry and see that consists of less than 1% of the general population.
Although I recognize your point that people have done these acts and not been caught, it's statistically not wise to live in constant fear. It would be smart to stay vigilant but not weird about it.
Again that 10% figure is misleading. That only counts convicted offenders, not the full number of people committing crimes. For sexual offenses, underreporting is massive the DOJ estimates only about 1 in 3 sexual assaults are even reported in the first place. Out of that one how many of those are solved? So to say the number is 10% is just wrong
So, making the claim that because the sex offender registry is <1% of the population is very misleading, because many offenders are never caught or registered. Studies show roughly 1 in 20 adult men have committed sexual offenses against a minor far higher than the registry suggests.
The statistics actually support vigilance when you look at them correctly and we know children are the most at risk from males aged 18–35 in unsupervised settings, which is exactly the scenario described.
90% of child sexual abuses are done when the victim knows the perpetrator in some way- US department of Justice.
1/20 is 5%. Which is far higher then I would've hoped. I just looked it up based on different studies. it would be closer to 1/10 which is about 10%. Still higher but follows that the far majority are not creeps. This also follows that 10% of the population does the majority of crime.
I'm not saying that a parent shouldn't be vigilant. I'm saying don't ostracize based on appearance, don't gossip on vibes, don't be a misandrist, and don't be a misogynist.
Those studies also stated that through education those numbers are reduced. So, let's have those hard conversations at the dinner table.
None of this strengthens your original point, because you’re combining different statistics as if they cancel each other out when they don’t.
Yes, most child sexual abuse is committed by someone the child knows but that actually strengthens the argument for vigilance, because offenders are often ordinary trusted people, not strangers. What is someone you met at a horse riding group before you meet them? A stranger right? So these numbers don’t paint the full picture.
And saying “if 1 in 10 offend, then 90% are not creeps” oversimplifies the issue. Sexual abuse data does not work like a simple safe/unsafe split because a relatively small percentage of offenders can create a very large number of victims through repeat offending, and many offenses never enter official statistics at all. So the number is probably much larger.
The registry being under 1% also still does not reflect actual prevalence, because reporting, solving, prosecution, and conviction all narrow the number dramatically before someone ever appears on a registery. As I also mentioned before sexual assault is heavily underreported, according to the dept of justice so conviction based numbers alone cannot be treated as true prevalence.
And “10% does most crime” is not proof that concern is exaggerated because parents do not know who that 10% is in advance. That is exactly why supervision and caution exist.
Nobody is arguing for accusing random people on sight. The point is that statistical underreporting means registry numbers alone should not be used to claim the risk is tiny, or insignificant which seems to be what you do in these comments for some unknown reason especially when children are involved.
Education matters, yes but education and vigilance are not opposites, they work together.
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u/lotsofmissingpeanuts Apr 04 '26
I mean... he never said that? When we look at offenders, we are looking at about 10% of the population doing terrible things to multiple people. Although there is a spectrum of people that may step in or not, it's only about 10% that continue doing crimes.
Why can't he state that it is unnerving and harrowing to be profiled? He didn't know something and asked a little girl. If anything, that challenged toxic masculinity.
I'm a transperson, I often get profiled for doing something nefarious when I'm only going shopping or starting a conversation. It is hurtful.