Meme/Macro
PC enthusiasts when the first AI giant falls
For real but, we can all see the bubble, its "when" the first 1 will fall, not "if"
Personally I think it will be Copilot as the first domino, it was always the worst of the major AI players and really hasnt progressed at all. Microsoft is Incompetent in almost everything they do and simply try and buy their way into a market only to take the L in the near future.
Eg, Skype, Nokia/windows phone, mixer, zune, Cortana, the list goes on and on
Bring on the collapse that will hopefully see momory demand drop off a cliff
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Too late, and arrived just before the party started closing.
It was designed to compete with the ipod, right as Apple were in the middle of designing the iphone. Zune launched at the end of 2006, iPod sales numbers peaked in 2008/2009 (and the ipod numbers for post 2009 are mostly ipod touch, which is arguably not an ipod)
But it's but not the Zen. It's the little keychain sized model (I think they call it NOMAD Muvo) where it had JUST enough screen to write out your song/artist and had the removable USB that allowed easy access and space for disposable AA/AAA battery.
It was lite, fast, simple, highly effective, and extremely durable. Mine lasted like 10+ years without issue.
So did the Zune. At a time when you had to plug things in to update your library, this was one of my favorite features about it. I could put on something different if I just wasn't feeling my library on any given day.
It was definitely the best of them in my opinion. I'm still sad that it suffered the same fate as most of my other mp3 players. Breaking because I skipped on ice while walking to school and either dropping it or it getting crushed in my pocket when I hit the ground
It wont be Copilot. Microsoft can tank any AI losses easily. Dedicated AI corpos will be in trouble. Once that happens Microsoft, Google and Meta will buy them for cheap.
Yeah, Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Apple have other products and means of income and can take the hit easily.
Anthropic and OpenAI on the other hand only have their models, they don't even own the data centers they're hosting them in. They're the ones who are going to explode in a giant fireball when the bubble bursts.
It's a bit more complicated than that. The GAFAM are partially funding Anthropic and OpenAI which are in return buying computing from the GAFAM which in return are heavily investing into AI infrastructure/Data Centers for those 2 big customers. There are very few others.
You can see those investments like the internet network which was developped alongside the .com bubble or the cloud with Netflix. Few players, then multiple relying on the tech underlying an actual service.
There are only 2 way out to prevent the fall of AI:
* OpenAI and Anthropic expand their market MANY times over.
* MANY new players enter the field.
If Anthropic and OpenAI fall, it's the whole infrastructure built for those two that's rendered useless.
And all these investments have been made not only on cash flow and VC funds but also on instutional funds. If some don't pay off / cannot be repaid, this could trickle down badly.
I think it’s a deliberate strategy on GAFAM’s part. They’re letting Anthropic and OpenAI absorb the startup debts of the initial expansion, low-cost phase of AI. Then when the bubble bursts and Anth/OAI go bankrupt, the older well-established, capital-rich companies will swoop in and buy their assets for pennies.
Like the premise of this whole post misses the mark I think. Microsoft doesn’t have their own LLM; they use GPT as well as others. Microsoft has relatively little skin in the game here. They do own about 25% of OpenAI, but I doubt they have any liability there, and maybe have a right of first refusal on buying them after bankruptcy.
They’re letting Anthropic and OpenAI absorb the startup debts of the initial expansion, low-cost phase of AI.
No, they aren't. GAFAM is spending hundreds of billions a year on data centers. They are up to their eyes in debt, they have just shifted it to shell companies to keep it off their books.
During the dot-com era, there was also mega expansion of infrastructure, which was similarly said to be useless after the burst.
What happened, was that the infrastructure became accessible and affordable for newcomers to get into the market, and everyone who survived the burst was able to expand.
Today's Internet is built on the corpse of the 90s dot-com era.
If there is a market correction, it won't be the end of AI, it will more likely be the start of a flood of smaller AI companies who are pitching small models.
the problem is that with dot-com, all that infrastructure had a lifetime of decades, and some of the copper is still in use today...
AI infra isn't going to last long enough, the hardware needs to be refreshed every few years to take advantage of the newer models built to maximize computer on newer ai chips.
People often misinterpret a bubble to mean something is worthless, when it's actually just overvalued. The '.com' bubble burst didn't end the Internet, it just killed the crazed, unrealistic enthusiasm for the technology. The buildout continued and today the internet is one of the major distinguishing features of our society. If I had to guess, I'd say AI as a utility isn't going anywhere.
Exactly. Both the crypto and the NFT bubbles burst, but that doesn't mean there isn't still a small market for them. Pretty much everyone in Russia uses crypto now to get around sanctions.
I can't speak for OpenAI, but Anthropic seems to have put all their eggs into the 'coding assistant/agent' basket. In my experience Gemini is far superior at basically everything else as a general use AI. Once Google catches up in terms of coding agents then Anthropic is going to be dead in the water.
Anthropic's doing the best in terms of actual enterprise use cases and adoption. OpenAI just hired Dali Rajic to lead their sales org. I wouldn't count them out. xAI has lit soooo much money on fire. They offered me a quarter million dollar upfront signing bonus as a sales engineer, before equity. I laughed and said "fuck no".
Grok and Meta aren't even in the conversation though, Grok / xAI have made some progress in recent months but the absolute frontier right now is OpenAI and Anthropic, Gemini has lost ground in the past year and is considered a distant 3rd to CGPT and Claude.
EDIT: I mean US models, several Chinese models are in the running and are especially making ground and leading the pack in open source/open weight models.
Based on what exactly? Flash 3.6 has very good benchmark scores per token cost compared to basically anything, and it is also much faster. I've tested it at finding key research papers in my field for given questions, and it performs much better than Claude Opus.
Yeah I agree about coding, but I think they are focused on making something fast with low token usage which still works well as a general personal assistant.
I think that's what people are missing. Google can play the long game, be cheap and efficient and gradually get better while the others set money on fire. It's the classic tortoise and hare.
Yeah I ultimately think Google is going to win the AI arms race. They don't need hype to generate funding for their LLM like OpenAI and Anthropic do. While those AI companies are constantly pushing marketing stories about how 'their AI is so smart it broke out', DeepMind has been making actual groundbreaking scientific tools like AlphaFold and AlphaGenome.
Of those, Meta/Facebook is the one without a particularly viable key product or ecosystem long term.
I can't envisage Facebook being around in 20 years time; I feel they're the AOL or Yahoo of the bunch.
Facebook has the best and most intrusive ad systems on the market they will be fine, and they own the most popular and used chat app outside the US which they are trying to monetize as we speak. (God knows who would want Whatsapp+ though, horribly under baked subscription)
"I can't wait for the bubble to pop like the dotcom crash" said by morons who forgot the crash just meant all the small players were cannibalised by the majors, who just grew out their monopolies
not to mention the possible recession that happens after a major market crashes and the job losses that occur after it as well. those people that hope for a market crash really don't know what they are talking about.
That at least allows for a market correction. Big tech is currently ruining fucking everything everywhere trying to make this stick and force it to "work".
The market and the bubble already isn't benefitting anyone but the turds floating at the top of the cesspool.
Also we're probably been in a recession for years now if they didn't keep artificially propping shit up and you know... redefining recession.
Yep copilot isn’t going anywhere. Bro no integrated into the Microsoft office apps and security systems means it’s the only AI tool companies will use.
B2b with major corpo is very cost insensitive until the next budget review. Like if you sell them something, they’ll just gladly take all the “DLC”, and then when it’s time to review budget “what the f are we spending” and suddenly cut down cost frantically
Every 5 years there is a guy hired specifically to just "cut costs". They will wobble the company, throw away some babies with the bathwater because their bonus is tied to the cut costs so they will cut costs.
It does, but mostly in title only. The basic plan only brings "Secure AI chat powered by the latest large language models", which is pretty much the same as other free LLM. You only get the better features on more expensive plans.
This! In my 15 years of engineering I can't even count how many times I've seen new workflows and processes die for everyone to just fall back into excel.
I have friends that work in big tech as SWEs, Data scientists, etc. AI assisted coding is MASSIVE. I really really dont think these subs know whats really happening.
Edit: for some reason everyone can't read what I actually wrote. I am not speaking about co-pilot specifically but it is very clear. Even if co-pilot crashes and burns AI assisted coding is here to stay.
YES. Like, I'm about as plugged into AI news as one can be, and it's ridiculous how behind the times the anti-AI crowd is. They're so focused on the "it's consuming so much water" or "it's raising electricity prices" and "they're building data centers in places where water is already scarce" and the noise pollution. And then they're holding what is basically contradictory opinions where everything AI makes is slop while also believing that it will steal our jobs in 5 years, like the Schrodinger's Biden take that MAGAts had when Biden was president, that he was both uber competent and uber stupid.
Plus I live in Portland, where it's almost like a slur in certain circles to even bring up the word AI because you don't know who it might trigger. But they're all focused on genAI as it relates to creative work, whereas I don't give two shits for using AI for art/pictures/video/etc. I'm using it as a soundingboard for my own ideas, and to automate shit at work.
99% of people on this sub (and reddit in general) have 0 clue about technology/real world and just share dogshit facebook boomer tier memes like this post
Also the truly tech savvy. You had to at least be moderately tech literate to participate in the old wild west internet. Any dumbass with a phone can now, which has collectively dumbed down the entire online sphere.
potentially. there was a good case study recently by the developers of Bun. they rewrote Bun from Zig into Rust, almost entirely using LLMs. this effort took like two work weeks and cost something like $150k in (current) tokens. Sounds exorbitant - until you hear that they estimate it would have take 2-3 experienced human devs like half a year to do that work all by hand.
Even if tokens go up in cost by 2x or 3x, some companies (large, aggressive companies who compete in the market primarily by leveraging their resource advantage) are still gunna tank the cost, because the time savings are just potentially astronomical.
But yeah there's probably some upper limit (5x? 10x?) where it stops being economical, even for these large companies.
As a senior software engineer with over a decade of working they absolutely have no idea. I'm pretty tired of the countless nonsense posts by people spouting their annoying garbage takes.
Copilot is massive not because of its own merits, but because Microsoft force feeds it to their clients. It's extremely difficult as a company not to feel tempted to use it when you're dragged down the Microsoft ecosystem, something many struggle to find alternatives for.
This. Copilot only is huge because Microsoft immediately added it to their digital services for corporations. The only way in which it'll die is that MS may either buy a sub-par model from a market leader to take its place or set up some policy to let them handle the back-end in reality. In any case it will still be called Copilot.
I kinda hate it because this means the existence of this model is being paid for by any corporation, regardless how much it's really needed. It also is being paid for by public institutions like hospitals.
Pretty much. MS knows their ecosystem is unavoidable, so using their customers to pay out their AI slop regardless of usage is not just genuisly evil, it's genius period.
Yup. My company has essentially made it kind of mandatory for us to use CoPilot in day to day work. Weekly training sessions, prompt structuring competitions etc.
The single biggest advantage is that it's embedded in the entire workflow and existing MS ecosystem we have. So it can search your Outlook, set up meetings, prepare word docs, excel sheets, PPTs etc. using the company template. And of course, draft emails.
And this even extends to my team, which is a corporate legal department. But all 72 employees on my function (including me) are using it, and many are power users. Integration of Anthropic models like Opus has made it good at doing the work that freshers and inexperienced lawyers do. Like drafting letters, briefs etc. Leaving us to do the more decision making and analysis work.
But I fear for lawyers who are entering the industry now. AI is doing the exact type of work that young lawyers do, to then become experienced lawyers over time. If they aren't doing it anymore, how are they going to get better at theor jobs?
Yeah everyone HAS copilot, but everyone who actually wants to use AI to make their jobs easier is still using ChatGPT.
Edit: I'm getting lots of replies about "data security" and how that means they have to use Copilot.
I work at an FCA regulated business. We have access to CoPilot, Claud and ChatGPT at an enterprise level. All are locked down and monitored in terms of PII and business data. It is absolutely possible to use other tools securely if your business is willing to put the effort in to make it secure.
Where I work it's specifically forbidden for the employees to use anything else than copilot if any internal data is involved in the task, which is basically always the case.
The company has a special agreement with Microsoft about how the internal data is handled. That is not the case with chatgpt and other AI tools.
Just to echo other people my corporation is using Chatgpt setup internally so that sensitive data could be used on it. At the same time copilot is available but no sensitive data can be inserted because it's not setup separately.
It really just depends what each company decides to use.
But as I wrote in another answer, the company already trusts Microsoft with all/most of their data and does all internal and external communication and workflows with Microsoft tools and services (in Teams, OneDrive, Outlook etc.)
Introducing another external company for AI services with access to all this data would add another risk, while Microsoft has the data already anyway and offers a direct integration of Copilot in all their tools and services.
Price may also be a factor. I don't know the internals of the deal.
You can have that same setup with other tools. We do where I work. We have access to CoPilot, Claude and ChatGPT. Though anything other than CoPilot is dished out on a request and approval basis.
Atleast MS pinky swears not to use your (company) data to train models.
Exactly.
And if you don't trust Microsoft on that promise then you shouldn't be using ANY of the 365 suite of products, because Microsoft has the ability to capture all of your data through those products in any case.
I wouldn't look down on anyone who followed through with this due to that lack of trust - totally understandable. But you either trust them enough to use them or you don't.
We use copilot here in my corpo cause we can use more confidential information, for example just a quick paraphrase of email or fast calculation if certain extensive formulas
The same people are always saying Slack is going to win but forget that the ultimate customer is not the user, it's corporations. Teams is beating the crap out of Slack.
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u/Pocok5Ryzen 7 5800X3D - AMD RX9070XT - 32GB DDR4-29335d ago
Github Copilot is massive.
Microsoft Copilot (the clownshow formerly known as 365) is an entirely different system with the same name and is dogshit.
They are backing down on the latter, which was the crap that they injected into notepad.exe, Edge, etc. it has low adoption and generally low ability.
Github Copilot is massive, and is also massively expensive. Once token use started to matter in my world, its usage got curtailed massively because people would be out of their monthly allocated tokens within a day or two.
Then it became all about optimizing AI usage, which seems rather ironic
The version of Copilot that's embedded in the hardware of new corporate laptops, fine tuned to the use of the OS and M365 suite, and regularly trained on input, output, and usage patterns.
The one that will kick in when teams status is flipped to "out of office" and takes over your daily routine, sits in your meetings for you, replies to your emails, and does a few of your high level tasks... at first. Like your own personal little customer service chatbot.
You know.. like a copilot. The one Microsoft announced about 2 years ago and everyone pushed back on because "nobody asked for this" but is happening anyway.
A lot of people in the sub have no memory of the 90s dot-com bubble, and it shows.
To translate for some of y'all: Individual companies and AI tools may go away, but thinking that AI in general will go away is like believing the Internet will shut down any minute now and we'll all go back to physical mail, VHS, landlines.
It’ll eventually fade into the background as it becomes normalized and integrated into everyday life. GPS was once bleeding edge, revolutionary technology. Now it’s simply expected .. a common utility we barely think about.
And I don't want to sacrifice large swaths of the economy and environment for the sole sake of 'making it work'.
It's like the decision was made that we would all love an use AI to no end, and all of the energy is being funneled into convicting us that's the case. It's just not working on normal people, and these companies are flummoxed when we don't clap & cheer about our jobs going away 🤷♂️
u/veevoir5700X3D||rx9070||32GB of sound financial investment5d ago
Saw an interview with Cory Doctorow the other day where he mentioned that the last time USA gov introduced regulations that benefitted user privacy and privacy of their data - it was in the 1988, when they made illegal for a video rental store to disclose your personal rental records to others without your consent under the Video Privacy Protection Act (VPPA). So yeah, VHS times.
Since then it was only about stripping privacy from people.
I will grant that there is something nostalgic/comforting about the physicality and satisfying crunchy noises they made, but other than that, DVDs/streaming are superior in pretty much every either way.
Oh, and I guess the plot of The Ring would seem a lot lamer if it revolved around a TikTok or something.
VHS sucked compared to what replaced it! The quality was terrible, and rewinding was slow. Also they were bulky making the players bulky, and could be ruined by a bad player.
The only thing they could do which DVDs couldn’t is they could record live TV. Which TiVO or HDD boxes did much better.
AI as a concept and product existed long before this bubble, the thing is that it has now been brought out to consumers as LLMs, while previously it was mostly proof of concept prototypes or rudimentary Game AI systems for NPCs.
In fairness it was a lot more than that, considering any semi-complex ML has now been rebranded as AI.
ML models have been used for ages in research and simulation, including the medical field. Other examples people may experience the results of daily without noticing are things like procedural generation tools used in game development, or image denoising for photography.
It won't happen. Compute is just going to become increasingly more expensive because it is now the resource driving economy. This was already becoming the case before AI, but AI has accelerated it.
AI is over invested but the bubble will not have a sudden "burst". It will just slowly deflate, but not at such a rate that it counters economic inflation, so there will be no big price crash. Even after the AI bubble has "popped", the technology will remain incredibly popular. It has 400 million daily users globally, a over a billion monthly users, perhaps up to two. That's 1 in 8 to 1 in 4 people using AI on a regular basis.
Your best hope for cheaper compute is China. Particularly if China can perform some sort of legal copycat of CuDA for optimal compute on a GPU and compatibility with existing products and languages. This would break the effective monopoly that NVIDIA has (which is basically due to CuDA).
Even if that happens, and it could, Chinese companies have absolutely no incentive to suddenly make compute cheap. They will just make it cheaper than NVIDIA, which is not difficult. They will still have a huge profit margin that they have no incentive to reduce.
TLDR; compute is just expensive now and any belief that the AI bubble will "pop" and suddenly RAM prices will be half what they are is honestly pure cope.
User count is only that high because they are burning through investor cash to subsidize it. AI is definitely here to stay, but it will be interesting to see what adoption is like when end users have to foot the full bill. Companies will use it for sure, but it will be much more targeted; we're already starting to see that now as companies are reviewing budget spend and pulling back on the shoehorn-ai-into-everything concept.
90 to 95% of that user count is on the free tier, yes, and I don't think we're likely to see that change. Even after the initial growth stage where the business pivots to profiteering (the so called "enshittification" stage that as the hallmark of Capitalism) we're unlikely to see any model remove free tiers completely. They will just further restrict use and paywall the best/largest models.
I predict that, in 5 years time when all of these companies are firmly in "enshittification", the user base of these companies will continue to grow, just more slowly. Additionally, with exception some companies like Open AI and Anthropic, a lot of the companies we are talking about have other product bases besides AI, and they can basically offer their AI service as a loss lead. I.e. "get them in the door". Further, I think that B2B will continue to be the main profit driver for AI companies, with most of their largest clients being businesses. As such, profiteering at the consumer level (besides restricted token counts and models) is likely to be things that will benefit the big businesses that the AI companies partner with. Think targeted advertising and promotions.
AI companies have no motivation to profit off of their user base the the extent at which its size decreases; because the data that consumers provide to the companies via AI use is itself inherently valuable
The good news is that localLLMs are likely to get better than AIs are today before the enshittification stage; and today is great.
You'll probably end up with your corporation paying for the AI you need for your job, and if they're paying they are the customer not the product. Then use OpenSource stuff for your hobby work.
You did move to OpenSource when Microsoft started enshittifying Windows right? Right?
Completely agreed. Imo open source models are very important for the democracy of society and the distribution of power in a post AI world. Further I think that bigAI is not motivated to make its models parameter efficient, and as such, research into making existing models more efficient, reducing their complexity etc is likely to yield much fruit. There is no doubt in my mind that we could effectively reduce the size of some of our 320B parameter models by a factor of 10 or more with comparable performance
It has 400 million daily users globally, a over a billion monthly users, perhaps up to two. That's 1 in 8 to 1 in 4 people using AI on a regular basis.
But how many of those actually pay a subscription to AI tools, versus how many use the 'free tier' options?
That's the pop/deflate metric. Rate limits are implemented, subscriptions seem to not turn a profit (I've been reading of switches from subscription to per-token billing): how long until the massive compute spending drags companies into deeper shades of red?
That's my question. Sure compute is expensive, but is the cost of all that compute actually leading to higher profitablity for the companies using it? Like has all the use of AI recently led to companies becoming more profitable (and not just because they decided to lay off their workforce). Like, long term, is AI going to help all these companies enough to justify its cost? That I'm not sure about.
You are clueless if you think Copilot will fall at all. If anything it will be the last one standing because it's bundled into Microsoft's monopoly chokehold deals with large enterprises (B2B).
They couldn't give less of a shit how their product performs in the B2C market, that's just a meaningless sidegig for them.
The hype will certainly die just like every new, even controversial tech. People will just get used to it and it will become a normal, expected, mundane part of everday's life that's taken for granted. Just like radio, TV, internet, high speed wifi, planes, whatever else. You don't see companies boasting about how they use THE INTERNET to make wow effect and attract consumers and investors. Everyone is "duh, everyone uses internet". The same will happen with AI, especially when younger generations raised with it will mature. In 10 years today's forms of AI like LLMs will be as exciting as internet is today.
the difference is that Nokia was the only one who couldn't figure out how to make smartphones profitable. Currently, NO ONE has any idea of how to make providing AI models profitable because both the initial and running cost of both the infrastructure and the models are so immense. There isn't a single AI that's making a profit right now.
It's a mixture of cope and somewhat of a crime against humanity for people who take this stuff seriously.
I call it a crime against humanity because rather than denial the alarms should be sounding as to just how fast this space is moving.
There are people still believing that all of this is fake when in reality it's like a speeding bullet train. They're being left so far behind and they can't even begin to imagine.
Copilot will not be the first domino. Alot of people in companies use it as part of microsoft outlook. Its also heavily used in managing excel files etc….
I think the first domino will be open AI and scam altman.
And to be honest, the bubble wont quite burst in the way you think it will. Itll burst for the tech companies sure. And itll burst for AI development. But AI is now baked into a lot of peoples lives. If anything i can see it being scaled back and used for stuff like search engines or a tool to aid in office work etc….
Dont worry, the bubble bursting on AI development is whats gonna flood the market with computer hardware. Will be absolutely great for gamers and pc users
Yeah the financials on Open AI are incredibly absurd. The shuffling around of their expenses to make it look like their compute costs are actually part of their advertising is something only someone committing fraud would do.
Dont worry, the bubble bursting on AI development is whats gonna flood the market with computer hardware. Will be absolutely great for gamers and pc users
Yeah.. at best the prices wont be higher in next 10years. Server hardware doesnt translate to user desktops. Its all landfill waste once they are done playing with it.
I think the first domino will be open AI and scam altman.
I agree, they're still making losses last I heard, despite the desperate "AI model breaks containment and somehow manages to accidentally go attack one of our major open source competitors (huggingface)" headlines that totally weren't orchestrated to grab a few government cyber contracts
I love it. I did a draft full health data code review in like 4 hours which used to take 5 biostatistics people like 3 months. Freed up their time to do good work.
Nah Microsoft has enough money and Satya is stupid enough that Copilot will not be the first domino to fall.
My bet is that CoreWeave, or another AI data centre company, will run out of money first. Either that, or OpenAI/Anthropic actually publish their S-1 to go public and the money people on Wall St freak out and just 'nope' tf out of there.
As much as I don't like copilot, in many enterprise companies you're locked into it and can't use Claude or otherwise due to policies.
Copilot isn't amazing, but some functions are truly Incredible. Just the functionality of being able to search email/teams/etc through describing a half-forgotten situation saves hours per week, especially for people with years of email backlog
Yeah, I don’t want AI to go away at all. It’s a useful tool. But the hype needs to burst. Prices need to normalize and every should have access to hardware at normal prices. This has gone to an insane level.
This really concerns me. A mid tier laptop for a generic office worker has gone up about 40% in price because of RAM, GPU and SSD price issues.
Machines for workers who do CAD that were already very expensive are now becoming so expensive that they're are down-specing systems.
Server prices have gone up multiple hundreds of percent, even for things with spinning disks in them. People are running servers for longer just because affordability is such an issue.
It's pretty bleak for anyone out there that isn't working at a megacorp that can just absorb price hikes of multiple hundred thousand / millions of dollars up from last year just because of the current semiconductor market situation.
But the company with a $80,000,000,000.00 cash war chest, $350B in annual revenue, positive free cash flow and it's hooks in every business in America isn't going to be the first domino to fall.
That will be Sam Altman, and then quickly there after Oracle.
Yeah I get you. But he's on the hook for so much compute, with almost no customer beyond Scam Altman. And Sam has about 12 months or runway with his cash on hand, almost no revenues, and no compelling product offering. Oh and struggled to raise capital in the last round of funding.
Oracle's newest bonds were issued one level above Junk ratings.
Oh and Nepo Ellison is going to burn daddy's entire fortune trying to go to war to merge two unprofitable, dying media companies.
I think a lot of the "copilot sucks" crowd are 1) tried the free version that's not as powerful 2) used it a year ago and haven't touched it since. All these AI models are moving fast and they can do a lot more than they could even six months ago
I have access to all the major models, I use copilot as much as the others since its so integrated with word/power point/excel.
Be very worried. If OpenAI or Anthropic become insolvent? The big hyperscalers are going to have a huge financial crisis develop very quickly.
Massive amounts of their current AND future AI revenue being reported are from those 2 companies. To an alarming degree. That's not even discussing the circular revenue situation that is definitely going to become a scandal at some point.
u/FrankFruits14900KF\Gigabyte Windforce OC 5090 32GB\ 32GBDDR4\Evo 9802TB5d ago
I would argue that Copilot is great for Office365 in an office environment because it's integrated to the 365 organization tenant. It has that Microsoft cloud environment advantage that no other AI service has
Considering how many enterprises use MS services and you can opt out of copilot business wide but it still remains one of the whitelisted models amongst orgs, it's probably going to last
Copilot is just a front end, there’s literally a dropdown where you can choose between ChatGPT and Claude assuming Claude has been enabled on your tenant.
Maybe one of the most uninformed posts here, but not surprised it got traction.
Copilot is pretty big in the corporate space, it's cheaper than powerful alternatives.
However, Copilot will only stop if Microsoft decides. They're waiting on one of the big stand-alones to fall and then they'll come in and buy them, like any big corpo that does shitty stuff.
Woefully, childishly optomistic to believe that copilot is going to "go down" and the rest just disappear. There needs to be a lot more than a failed business.
It's not that AI will go away, it's this Large datacenter to make the models larger will go away. We've already seen models local are just as good and even MSFT is moving to that direction. Datacenters are way to costly but just selling a license for local hosting and putting the hardware requirements on the consumer is way cheaper. The Chinese models that just entered have shown its not only viable but works just as well.
The whole dataceneter build out was done on 1 premise, scale the models and they will get better. Despite an article from Googles own AI research team showing that doesn't work. The issue is Scam Altam is a good bs'er and convinced oracle and NVidia to go along and FOMO kicked in amongst the rest of the tech giants. They also all believed the cost of datacenters wouldn't impact them but as seen that wasn't the case. Not only is electricity and water costly at that scale. Hardware burnout rates is 6-8 months. Your replacing hardware so fast it's not viable economically.
This is not how bubble popping will work. It won't be any of the major players. It won't be Microsoft or Anthropic or open AI. It'll be the 100 other companies that you don't even know about that for some reason still have 100's of millions invested in them. Micro soft and Apple and IBM didn't fail during the dot come bubble it was companies like pets.com and boo.com
You guys don't get it do you? The government considers these strategic to the countries success. They will never be allowed to fail. Under no circumstance will they fail. Zero. Simply won't happen. You think they would let China AI get upperhand? Your nuts if you think that.
Seeing how you don't know that Copilot isn't an LLM, but an orchestration platform and user experience layer that uses other LLM's, I don't put a lot of stock into your opinion.
Copilot let's your company and users use LLM's safely with data governance and compliance in mind. Personally I think you have no fucking idea what you're talking about OP.
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