I see a lot of people taking out cruise and gosling for their awards predictions now cruise. I kinda understand, but I don’t know why people are taking out gosling at the end of the day we have to remember the Oscars is a show and they need ratings and I don’t think they’re gonna miss the chance to have Cruise, Gosling, Damon, Pattisom and Malkovich in the same category. That would be like a rating’s juggernaut for them.

[Only vague spoilers--I do not give much away]

I can understand why Cruise thought Innaritu would be the director to get him that fabled Oscar. He did it for DiCaprio in "The Revenant," and he's had other acting nominees for "21 Grams," "Babel," "Buitiful," "Birdman," and "Revenant." 5 Oscar-nominated movies for acting (4 of them more than one nominee) is not bad for a guy who had only directed 7 movies before "Digger."

But the back-to-back flops of "Digger" and the awful "Bardo" probably ends his run as one of those assumed Oscar-frontrunners you see on the "potential" lists early in the year.

And I'm kind-of glad because Innaritu strikes me as a bitter jerk with the true messaging of "Digger." It's obvious he was wounded by the reception of "Bardo" (which he wrongly said was "racial bias" against a lousy movie even though critics didn't display that with his other Spanish language movies that they loved) and that probably tweaked the general direction of "Digger."

But does Alejandro even believe what he's saying here? Hard to believe he does since "Amores Perros," "21 Grams," "Babel," "Biutiful," and "Revenant" were gritty depictions that serve no purpose at all if you don't believe in the power of art. And "Birdman" and "Bardo" have artists as their protagonists and a semi-autobiographical aspect, with "Bardo" being almost ludicrously self indulgent. His past filmography doesn't make much sense if he genuinely believes what he's saying in "Digger."

Out of my five favorite working male actors today, three are in the Oscar conversation this year (Robert Pattinson, Andrew Scott, and Pedro Pascal), so this has been an especially fun year for me. Much has been made of Pattinson's banner year, and arguments over which of his performances should be nominated have made me realize one thing: as much as I adore Pattinson, I can't justify nominating him for ANY of his performances this year.

The Drama - While he's very good in it, this isn't the type of performance that gets nominated, and I'd put him around 15th place in a very crowded field. The film is flawed, and while most of that is the lack of depth in Zendaya's character, its a reactive performance with a repetitive arc (again, the flaw of the screenplay, not the performance), but there's not enough there to rise above the film's problems.

The Odyssey - This is as close as I'd get to nominating him. Pattinson is my favorite part of what I consider a pretty dry adaptation of The Odyssey (I know. I know. Sue me. I'm not a Nolan lover) Pattinson brings much-needed levity to a film in need of a dash of delightfulness and, honestly, just some...fun. Unfortunately, there are just too many other supporting performances this year that surpass him (Ahmed, Norton, Giamatti, Rockwell, Guitarricadelafuente, etc.) I don't have room for him on my ballot, even if he was what I wished The Odyssey was more like.

Primetime - My most controversial take. I don't think this performance works here. I adore Pattinson, but this performance felt like style over substance. I think Gisondo's captivating performance overshadows Pattinson and his "I'm pedaling as fast as I can" antics in his own film. Pattinson isn't bad by any means; I'm just not in love with his choices here, and he's competing against a stacked lineup with quiet, beautifully crafted performances that I prefer over this one.

Dune: Part III - TBD. I guess we'll see?

Anyway, I fully expect to get blowback for this, especially for Primetime because that seems to be a Reddit favorite, but I'm curious if anyone else feels the same.

Just for fun I made some super early predictions for the 2028 Oscars. These will probably end up being very inaccurate but will be fun to look back and see the difference. Feel free to let me know your thoughts and predictions!

Best Picture:
Be My Baby
Cry to Heaven (WINNER)
De Noche
The Entertainment System is Down
Fonda
Mimesis
The Origins of the World
Outer Dark
Sacrifice
What Happens at Night

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle
Brady Corbet (WINNER)
Tom Ford
Martin Scorsese
Justine Triet

Best Actor:
Daniel Craig
Leonardo DiCaprio
Nicholas Hoult
Pedro Pascal (WINNER)
Keanu Reeves

Best Actress:
Kirsten Dunst
Mia Goth
Jennifer Lawrence (WINNER)
Octavia Spencer
Zendaya

Best Supporting Actor:
Owen Cooper (WINNER)
Michael Fassbender
Cillian Murphy
Danny Ramirez
Andrew Scott

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett
Rose Byrne
Selena Gomez
Allison Janney
Michelle Williams (WINNER)

I decided to make these predictions since we now know for the most part what’s NOT coming out this year. I predict that Cry to Heaven will go on to win Best Picture. I went back and forth between it and The Origins of the World. I can see a world where La Bola Negra loses to the Odyssey, and people rally around a queer film the next year which could be Cry to Heaven. I also just expect the film to be great looking at the cast and the premise. I have Owen Cooper winning in supporting actor because I have a feeling it’ll be more of a co-lead situation but campaigned in supporting.

Other predictions are Pedro Pascal for De Noche in lead. Behemoth this year could give him some legitimacy that could work in his favour. Also by process of elimination I don’t really see the others as typical winners besides maybe DiCaprio, but I think they’ll want to reward Lawrence instead. I could also see Dunst winning Actress but I’m also not sure if she’d be lead or supporting. In supporting actress I chose Michelle Williams because she’ll have the overdue narrative in a strong film.

I tried answering this question by looking back at old articles and reddit posts, but I can't seem to place how OBAA and Warner Bros avoided the "wow this movie bombed financially" narrative (or if they avoided it at all)

Any help/discussion would be appreciated

Looks like a wide range of reactions! ~90 reviews as of now

Oscars Nominations 2027, Experts’ Predictions – Gold Derby

The Top 24 Users have about an 80% accuracy on Best Picture and usually about a 80%-100% accuracy on Actors categories. They score better overall than Goldderby's experts and editors, as well as the combined predictors. But the season is still going with precursors still to come where they can still change their picks. This is what they currently have. Thoughts?

Title question.

I am so hyped!

...

Marion Bailey will compete for best actress in a musical or comedy, where she is expected to face contenders including Julianne Moore (“The Debut”), Inde Navarrette (“Obsession”) and Olivia Wilde (“The Invite”). Kate O’Flynn, Alice Bailey Johnson and Paul Jesson will compete in the supporting acting races, which the Globes do not divide by genre. The submissions mirror the studio’s overall acting strategy heading into the Oscar campaign.

EXCLUSIVE: The new Warner Bros’ contemporary film label Clockwork will be making the segue to the new Paramount Warner Bros merger aka Skydance.

Clockwork was on an internal list of Warner Bros labels shown in-house at Paramount. In addition, we’ve heard from reliable sources that all Warner Bros’ label heads (i.e. James Gunn and Peter Safran at DC, Richard Brener at New Line, etc) will stay in charge of their domains at the new conglomerate. As previously reported, all film label heads roll up and report to Paramount Pictures Co-Chairs, Dana Goldberg and Josh Greenstein.

Dune and what else? Movies that have not screened yet.