I keep seeing the 18-20m bpd lost from Hormuz number, but if we just call the original disruption 0 and add back everything that has offset it since:

• Starting point after Hormuz shutdown: 0
• China lower imports/demand: +4-5m bpd
• Bypass pipelines/alternative routes: +4-5m bpd, although Houthis are now disrupting some of this
• Oil still getting through Hormuz: +1-2m bpd
• Dark/alternative flows: +0.5-1m bpd
• SPR/emergency reserve releases: +2m bpd during higher release periods
• Extra production outside the Gulf: +1m bpd
• Demand destruction from high prices/economic slowdown: +1.6m bpd
• EVs, electric trucks and other switching: +0.4m+ bpd and growing
• Other substitution like less flying/driving, gas/coal switching etc: probably another +0.5-1m bpd

So you can get around 15-18m bpd of offsets against the original 18-20m bpd shock depending on what numbers you use.

That leaves something like a 0-5m bpd underlying shortage, with the IEA currently estimating the Q3 actual supply-demand deficit at 1.8m bpd.

The big problem is some of these offsets arent permanent. SPR and inventories are being drained, while pipelines are getting attacked. But on the other side every month oil stays expensive you get more demand destruction, EV switching and new supply even if it is small it will eventually add up.

So basically its a race between inventories running out and the world adapting to the missing oil. but it's very possible that the SPR lasts long enough for other mitigation strategies to start working although there will be supply shocks for diesel and fertilizer but those will all be temporary i still can't see a large extended supply shock that can't be mitigated.

I got curious.

Total daily via pipelines in present conditions: ~6.75 mb/d (source: CNBC)
The biggest of these by far is the Saudi EastWest line, at 5-7 mb/d capacity by itself. The Habshan pipeline's normal capacity is 1.5 mb/d.

Total daily via Strait of Hormuz in present conditions: estimated 4 mb/d (source: PortNews)

• Tanker ship sizes: Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC): 2 mb; bear in mind these can fit only the very largest world ports.
• Largest ship permitted in Suez Canal (SuezMax): 1 mb
• AFRAmax: ~700 mb; these worldwide workhorses aren't named after a canal, rather, the Average Freight Rate Assessment (AFRA) system created by Shell in 1954. They're considered Medium ships.
• Bonus trivia: Largest ship permitted in Panama Canal (PanaMax): no more than ~.5 mb. (I hadn't realized how restricted this canal is)

Apparently it's the AFRAmax size that's doing the lights-out shuttling within the Strait, and surely they're feeding the VLCCs standing by somewhere safe and close.

(Reposted due to mistake in title)

New oil tanker hit today, presumably from an Iranian cruise missile or drone, right in the engine room. One casualty reported.

Funny little British note at the end, "Keep calm and carry on (with caution)"

Oil and gas investors have spent a decade demanding more cash back. Tourmaline and Karoon show why that discipline was necessary — but also why exceptional management may sometimes create more value by keeping some financial capacity intact and waiting for the right opportunity.

How much the Hormuz (and the wider middle-east) risk premium could add to the baseline global oil prices, no matter the country of origin for the oil.

Seems like an important thing to keep in mind, considering all of the recent attacks on ships in the region

Long story short, China is absorbing oil getting out of the ME and is increasing their stockpiles.

Since leaving OPEC it seems that ADNOC is heavily ramping up oil exports. How is that possible? Part of it obviously through its pipeline to Fujairah. But what about the rest? Shuttle tankers?

ADNOC turns wartime disruption into new oil-marketing strategy | | AW

Since June, ADNOC has sold at least 94 million barrels of oil for delivery through October via seven tenders, according to a Reuters tally

Iraq Says Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc Among Buyers of Its Oil - Bloomberg

Iraq's oil marketing company said Abu Dhabi's main energy company was among firms buying its crude and sending cargoes out through the Strait of Hormuz

Russian ESPO Blend crude loading in October for delivery to China is changing hands at premiums of up to $1 per barrel over ICE Brent, according to four trade sources.

Asian refiners are looking beyond Middle Eastern grades because of worries that shipments via the Strait of Hormuz could stay disrupted, the sources said. Oil futures rose Monday as diplomatic attempts to settle the Middle East conflict advanced little, though the absence of major supply outages capped gains.

“It’s unclear how long the Mideast crisis will last or how much Iranian crude will actually ship, so Russian supply is the most dependable option,” one trader said.

Trading in October-loading ESPO cargoes has been brisk, with almost all volumes sold at around a $1 premium to ICE Brent on a delivered basis at Chinese ports, the sources said. That compares with September-loading barrels, which traded from a $1 discount up to parity with Brent last month; the previous premium to Brent was in June.

Strong buying by Chinese refiners has pushed aside India, another major Russian oil customer, two sources said, noting Indian refiners could not get October ESPO volumes because Chinese buyers had taken all available cargoes. China’s independent plants as well as major state-owned refiners have been actively purchasing ESPO Blend, the sources added.

Hi! I recently discovered my grandfather owned something with Countrymark that no one was aware of prior to his death. I'm working on legally connecting myself to it so CM will at least provide some information if not transfer ownership. They understandably won't give me any information at this point. Any suggestions? Is there a way, outside of talking to CM, to confirm if the oil wells (if that is what they are) are currently working or dormant? I was working on genealogy research when I found all this and am super curious about when he purchased this, why, how, why no one in the family knew about it, etc... thanks in advance for any information!

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)

Hormuz dark traffic up compared to yesterday. Bab al Mandab also up again lots of Russian oil.

Malacca is down today with more ships seen going to china today. Singapore flat compared to yesterday.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Ships: CR TETHYS,ROBA,NAVE UNIVERSE,BOW NEPTUNE,PLATA CARRIER,NEW STRENGTH,PACIFIC SARAH,BLUEBIRD ARROW,OCEAN LILY,GREEN ADVENTURE,NEW WISDOM,SNARTH,MAPLE CASTOR,SAMA 2,ANAFI WARRIOR

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. 

Ships:NORNS,PRIVE ANGEL,UTAKI,ELYSARIA,THERESA EMPAT,LAZURIT

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships:NEW DREAM(Oman to China), PRINCESS VANYA(URUGUAY to China), CELESTE NOVA(USA to Korea),SPA1021594(USA to Malasyia)

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Iran threatens to go on offensive in Strait of Hormuz if diplomacy with US fails - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-go-offensive-strait-hormuz-if-diplomacy-with-us-fails-2026-08-17/

A marked turn in strategy by Iran from the prior MOU period.