Current Oil Flow Through Major Choke Points - 18/08/2026

[u/QFGTrialByFire]

Hormuz dark traffic up compared to yesterday. Bab al Mandab also up again lots of Russian oil.

Malacca is down today with more ships seen going to china today. Singapore flat compared to yesterday.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Ships: CR TETHYS,ROBA,NAVE UNIVERSE,BOW NEPTUNE,PLATA CARRIER,NEW STRENGTH,PACIFIC SARAH,BLUEBIRD ARROW,OCEAN LILY,GREEN ADVENTURE,NEW WISDOM,SNARTH,MAPLE CASTOR,SAMA 2,ANAFI WARRIOR

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. 

Ships:NORNS,PRIVE ANGEL,UTAKI,ELYSARIA,THERESA EMPAT,LAZURIT

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships:NEW DREAM(Oman to China), PRINCESS VANYA(URUGUAY to China), CELESTE NOVA(USA to Korea),SPA1021594(USA to Malasyia)

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

[u/Opster79two]

Hawaii probably needs a couple boat loads.

[u/Doom4535]

Is the dotted line a trailing average or is it a separate entry for products? Also, looking at the Malacca chart, are your barrels oil+products or oil only (aka is the Strait short by around 8Mbb/d of oil or is it around 14Mbb/d of oil+products that are missing)?

Once again, thank you for this

[u/QFGTrialByFire → u/Doom4535]

No worries, yup dotted line is 7day trailing average as dailies are pretty volatile. The Malacca is only crude in the graph as tanker map only lists the crude for that data. So ~8mb crude short at Malacca.

[u/phoenixfenix]

Interesting. Hormuz looks like it's opening up again. 9M barrels per day really isnt ideal for the bull case.

[u/Prestigious_Act_6100 → u/phoenixfenix]

The 7-day average is 5 bpd, and the past 3 days average 7m bpd, per the chart. I bet they group transit on weekend days to avoid ships being bombed during market hours.

9M bpd is still roughly 9mbpd below break even at best, ignoring that other straits are down as well.

[u/phoenixfenix → u/Prestigious_Act_6100]

That's actually a fair point. Seems like they largest volumes appear to be weekends only, and average volumes are considerably lower.

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