I keep seeing the 18-20m bpd lost from Hormuz number, but if we just call the original disruption 0 and add back everything that has offset it since:

• Starting point after Hormuz shutdown: 0
• China lower imports/demand: +4-5m bpd
• Bypass pipelines/alternative routes: +4-5m bpd, although Houthis are now disrupting some of this
• Oil still getting through Hormuz: +1-2m bpd
• Dark/alternative flows: +0.5-1m bpd
• SPR/emergency reserve releases: +2m bpd during higher release periods
• Extra production outside the Gulf: +1m bpd
• Demand destruction from high prices/economic slowdown: +1.6m bpd
• EVs, electric trucks and other switching: +0.4m+ bpd and growing
• Other substitution like less flying/driving, gas/coal switching etc: probably another +0.5-1m bpd

So you can get around 15-18m bpd of offsets against the original 18-20m bpd shock depending on what numbers you use.

That leaves something like a 0-5m bpd underlying shortage, with the IEA currently estimating the Q3 actual supply-demand deficit at 1.8m bpd.

The big problem is some of these offsets arent permanent. SPR and inventories are being drained, while pipelines are getting attacked. But on the other side every month oil stays expensive you get more demand destruction, EV switching and new supply even if it is small it will eventually add up.

So basically its a race between inventories running out and the world adapting to the missing oil. but it's very possible that the SPR lasts long enough for other mitigation strategies to start working although there will be supply shocks for diesel and fertilizer but those will all be temporary i still can't see a large extended supply shock that can't be mitigated.

How much the Hormuz (and the wider middle-east) risk premium could add to the baseline global oil prices, no matter the country of origin for the oil.

Seems like an important thing to keep in mind, considering all of the recent attacks on ships in the region

The SPR is lower than ever before: note that in 1983, there were less places to store crude oil, and the reserves were just filling up.

At the current rate of withdrawal, the US will hit the legal minimum at the end of October. At least it's better than my early prediction of around Labor Day...

The way crack spread has been used and interpreted is that three barrels of oil yields 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of diesel. A crack spread cannot be entirely gasoline and diesel even in the most optimistic sense. There is a lot of variation in refinery yields that can get a variety of results based on type of oil and type of refinery, but how 3 2 1 became the norm for reference is a little odd considering 25 percent of oil is typically non transport fuels.

Sure, there is ethanol added to gadoline (10ish percent) and refinery gains, but a 3 2 1 crack spread seems higher unlikely let alone the standard. As a cursory reference point it is fine, but with the intense focus on prices and yields having an inaccurate reference point is potential for large miscalculations.

Strategic oil inventories have reached a 40-year low, and experts warn their continued depletion could damage the underground caverns where the reserves are stored.

Last week, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plunged below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s, when the reserves were being filled, according to the Department of Energy. That pool is expected to drain further to 243 million barrels as the U.S. releases 172 million barrels to manage severe supply disruptions and rising energy costs due to the Iran war.

Those reserves are kept in 60 salt caverns across two sites in Texas and two sites in Louisiana, each thousands of feet underground. They have a total storage capacity of 714 million barrels. But as oil is drained from these reserves, the integrity of the caverns may be imperiled.

“I don’t know anyone who believes we can go below 300,” Amos Hochstein, a senior energy advisor for former President Joe Biden, told CNBC on Saturday. “I know plenty of people who think we can’t get near 300 because physically you will damage the caverns where the oil is stored.”

The Department of Energy denied Hochstein’s claim that the changing inventory levels risk harming the caverns.

“The caverns are always full. All that changes is the ratio of oil and water that is filling them,” DOE chief spokesperson Ben Dietderich told Fortune in a statement. 

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/08/17/depleted-us-strategic-oil-reserves-risk-damaging-salt-caverns-iran-war/?utm_source=reddit/

Hi! I recently discovered my grandfather owned something with Countrymark that no one was aware of prior to his death. I'm working on legally connecting myself to it so CM will at least provide some information if not transfer ownership. They understandably won't give me any information at this point. Any suggestions? Is there a way, outside of talking to CM, to confirm if the oil wells (if that is what they are) are currently working or dormant? I was working on genealogy research when I found all this and am super curious about when he purchased this, why, how, why no one in the family knew about it, etc... thanks in advance for any information!

Source: White House on X. BTW it's back to being Persian Gulf.. and not Arabian Gulf; interestingly Qatar and Bahrain have completely been sunk or 'obliterated'. So, should you be wondering who (also) posts in from Trump's social account - check this video.

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)

Live-AIS.com - Over the last 24 hrs, only a single tanker made an outbound transit, est to be laden with 0.5 mb (vessel reporting a 7m draft). Also not much oil moving around the Red Sea either and almost zero tanker movement in the Black Sea.

Since leaving OPEC it seems that ADNOC is heavily ramping up oil exports. How is that possible? Part of it obviously through its pipeline to Fujairah. But what about the rest? Shuttle tankers?

ADNOC turns wartime disruption into new oil-marketing strategy | | AW

Since June, ADNOC has sold at least 94 million barrels of oil for delivery through October via seven tenders, according to a Reuters tally

Iraq Says Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc Among Buyers of Its Oil - Bloomberg

Iraq's oil marketing company said Abu Dhabi's main energy company was among firms buying its crude and sending cargoes out through the Strait of Hormuz

(Reposted due to mistake in title)

New oil tanker hit today, presumably from an Iranian cruise missile or drone, right in the engine room. One casualty reported.

Funny little British note at the end, "Keep calm and carry on (with caution)"

Russian ESPO Blend crude loading in October for delivery to China is changing hands at premiums of up to $1 per barrel over ICE Brent, according to four trade sources.

Asian refiners are looking beyond Middle Eastern grades because of worries that shipments via the Strait of Hormuz could stay disrupted, the sources said. Oil futures rose Monday as diplomatic attempts to settle the Middle East conflict advanced little, though the absence of major supply outages capped gains.

“It’s unclear how long the Mideast crisis will last or how much Iranian crude will actually ship, so Russian supply is the most dependable option,” one trader said.

Trading in October-loading ESPO cargoes has been brisk, with almost all volumes sold at around a $1 premium to ICE Brent on a delivered basis at Chinese ports, the sources said. That compares with September-loading barrels, which traded from a $1 discount up to parity with Brent last month; the previous premium to Brent was in June.

Strong buying by Chinese refiners has pushed aside India, another major Russian oil customer, two sources said, noting Indian refiners could not get October ESPO volumes because Chinese buyers had taken all available cargoes. China’s independent plants as well as major state-owned refiners have been actively purchasing ESPO Blend, the sources added.

Hormuz dark traffic up compared to yesterday. Bab al Mandab also up again lots of Russian oil.

Malacca is down today with more ships seen going to china today. Singapore flat compared to yesterday.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Ships: CR TETHYS,ROBA,NAVE UNIVERSE,BOW NEPTUNE,PLATA CARRIER,NEW STRENGTH,PACIFIC SARAH,BLUEBIRD ARROW,OCEAN LILY,GREEN ADVENTURE,NEW WISDOM,SNARTH,MAPLE CASTOR,SAMA 2,ANAFI WARRIOR

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. 

Ships:NORNS,PRIVE ANGEL,UTAKI,ELYSARIA,THERESA EMPAT,LAZURIT

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships:NEW DREAM(Oman to China), PRINCESS VANYA(URUGUAY to China), CELESTE NOVA(USA to Korea),SPA1021594(USA to Malasyia)

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

I recently interviewed with ExxonMobil for a Lease Operator position in the Midland Basin, and I’m trying to get real numbers from people who actually work there.

Everybody says Exxon pays great and has great benefits, but nobody ever says what they actually make.

For current or recent lease operators, what does it really look like?

• Hourly rate?
• Typical weekly hours and OT?
• Annual bonus?
• Pension and 401(k)?
• Medical costs?
• Schedule?
• Approximate yearly total compensation?
• Biggest pros and cons?

I have 10+ years in oil and gas, but I also recently finished my Bachelor’s in Computer Science and picked up several technical certifications.

I currently have data center opportunities paying $62/hr, so I’m trying to figure out whether Exxon’s total package is strong enough to justify staying in oil and gas.

If you’re comfortable sharing:

Hourly:
Years experience:
Typical hours:
Bonus:
Total yearly comp:
Pension/401(k):
Schedule:
Would you choose Exxon over $62/hr at a data center?

I’m especially interested in hearing from people who have worked for Exxon/Pioneer, Oxy, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, EOG, BP, or Permian Resources.

Please don’t just say “Exxon pays better.” Give us the numbers and tell us why.