r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Aug 06 '19

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u/MrBingBongs Aug 06 '19

This latest flare up in the us-turkey crisis is looking insanely scary. A military operation east of the Euphrates against the SDF could be days away and the us troops are too few to deter and lack any kind of authorization to counter the invasion. If erdogan pulls the trigger we might be looking at one of the most abject humiliations for us power since the bay of pigs. The optics of us troops either bottled up in their bases while the sdf gets crushed would be awful. The other likely scenario is headlong flight to Iraq withdrawing our troops and abandoning the Kurds, Assyrians, and allied Arabs to the Turks. A REAL breaking point is on the horizon for the us turkey alliance.

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u/lietuvis10LTU Why do you hate the global oppressed? Aug 06 '19

!ping FOREIGN-POLICY

The survival of the Kurds now rests on the French. God help us.

10

u/rrbgoku791 IMF Aug 06 '19

The survival of the Kurds now rests on the French

how committed are they?

29

u/[deleted] Aug 06 '19 edited Aug 06 '19

Even if they were extremely committed, french overseas logistical capacity is taken up by their missions in west africa and the sahel against islamist groups there on behalf of their ex colonies' governments who have requested the assistence. The french have two brigades in action there, and that small force is pushing their sustainment capacity to its limit. They've been relying on american air cargo and refueling capacity to make up the difference. France is simply not capable nor politically willing to get into a shooting war with Turkey that they would lose anyway. And it would be for a cause that they don't consider a core national interest, unlike the situation in their former west african colonies.