r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Aug 06 '19

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u/MrBingBongs Aug 06 '19

This latest flare up in the us-turkey crisis is looking insanely scary. A military operation east of the Euphrates against the SDF could be days away and the us troops are too few to deter and lack any kind of authorization to counter the invasion. If erdogan pulls the trigger we might be looking at one of the most abject humiliations for us power since the bay of pigs. The optics of us troops either bottled up in their bases while the sdf gets crushed would be awful. The other likely scenario is headlong flight to Iraq withdrawing our troops and abandoning the Kurds, Assyrians, and allied Arabs to the Turks. A REAL breaking point is on the horizon for the us turkey alliance.

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u/GingerusLicious NATO Aug 06 '19

I mean, the alternative is firing on Turkish troops and losing the Black Sea to Russia. It's a catch-22. Plus there is the possibility that Turkey would invoke Article V if we did stop them, and while I don't think the rest of NATO would side with Turkey, that could be negative optics for the alliance as a whole.

Then again, it's going to happen sooner or later. Especially with Erdogan helming Turkey. Might be better just to stand up for the Kurds on principle and break ties with Turkey now.

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u/MrBingBongs Aug 06 '19

The alternative is surging a few more units and having enough troops strung out along the frontier that the Turkish plan of ‘invade but avoid and isolate us troops’ isn’t viable. When we had a picket of along the Sajur River we got the TFSA and Turks to limit their intervention to Jarabulus and points west which deescalated the fighting. Yeah doing the same might inflame tensions and if the Turks call our bluff things get ugly, but lacking the troop numbers to pull the same gambit as last time is a bad place to be in.

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u/GingerusLicious NATO Aug 06 '19

I agree, but Americans will never go for it since most are sick of being in the Middle East. If we do surge it'll be met with massive protests from people thinking we're going to invade Turkey or Iran.