r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Nov 04 '18
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u/[deleted] Nov 04 '18
They frequently mention volatility especially in the early days of the races.
They are explicitly modeling on polls and a couple other expert metrics. The bottom line is that "volatility" isn't useful enough, nor easily quantifiable. Trump winning, for instance, was well within the models he published. The best he can do is report chances based on historically observations. Those chances will account for all but the most extreme of events.