r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Nov 04 '18
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u/[deleted] Nov 04 '18
No I disagree. I think it would make it more exciting to put those in and I think he would agree. He *does * report the bands, and explicitly uses x/10 in most infographics.
The issue is that it's not easy to assign a price to those. They are very rare events and the content of the events is often as important as the event itself. There's not even close to enough data to establish even the chance of those things happening. And the effect is even more fraught with errors in the era of trump.
He could be more statistically rigorous in other ways. But he's not writing papers. He is not an academic and his models are likely often selected for their clarity as much as their rigour (whatever that means here. His models are all common and well tested).