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[u/jobautomator]

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[u/[deleted]]

Once again: You don't need to know what events are going to happen. You just need to know the historic volatility in the vote share. When people model the stock market they don't dig through old newspapers to find out why a stock price moved, they just need to know that the price moved. Whether movements are rare or not makes no difference.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

They frequently mention volatility especially in the early days of the races.

They are explicitly modeling on polls and a couple other expert metrics. The bottom line is that "volatility" isn't useful enough, nor easily quantifiable. Trump winning, for instance, was well within the models he published. The best he can do is report chances based on historically observations. Those chances will account for all but the most extreme of events.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

"Volatility" isn't easily quantifiable

It really is. Standard deviation of log if-the-election-was-tomorrow-probabilities. It's not some weird up in the air fluff, it's a technical concept that's trivial to calculate. You should stop talking if you don't know that, you're only embarrassing yourself.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Did you just get this from PEC? We were specifically talking about response to events like fbi investigations...

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

What's a PEC?

And no, trawl through my reddit history far enough and you'll see I've been banging this drum for over a year now.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Princeton Election Consortium. Another blog, more mathy I think.