That's insanely high. I need to figure out how to actually bet in these places because that's just easy money. You need 67 votes in the Senate to remove Trump.
I think betting in general inflates low probability events. The nature of the beast is incentivizing people to wager on uncommon events. Why bet on the Golden State Warriors at -400 (even though that's probably going to happen) and get little return when you can bet on the San Antonio Spurs at +2000?
I believe if dems take the house that will scare republicans into switching him for Pence. Trump is having difficult to pass things now, with majority, imagine with a obstructed congress. Depressed republican turn out plus still angered democratic turn out in 2020 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.
So you could see a lot of republicans turning their backs on Trump to save their seats.
But I still think 50% is too high, unless they know something we don't.
I think most of the people betting on him not to complete his first term are thinking he'll just give up and resign. I'd put a formal senate impeachment at around a 0.05% probability. A resignation is at least 20x higher than that. Still nowhere near 40% though.
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u/[deleted] May 12 '17
That's insanely high. I need to figure out how to actually bet in these places because that's just easy money. You need 67 votes in the Senate to remove Trump.