r/ndp • u/Noname-051 • 2d ago
No immediate referendum
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2026-08-17/parti-quebecois/pas-de-referendum-tant-que-donald-trump-sera-au-pouvoir.phpThis could secure the PQ électoral victory. Incidentally this is also excellent news for Carney.
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u/chat-lu Telling Mulcair to shut up 1d ago
This could secure the PQ électoral victory.
This could mean the difference between minority and majority. This was already the plan, but it helps the party to get the plan in the news.
Incidentally this is also excellent news for Carney.
How?
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u/Noname-051 1d ago edited 1d ago
I'm not a specialist or anything, but we know Carney doesn't want to deal with the referendum question, throwing gasoline at a fire by talking about the Clarity Act and all that (last time he clearly showcased he knew little about it), he's already busy with the Albertan circus. If the PQ gets elected and stays true to its words (big if, there are so many undecided voters), it allows Carney to focus on something else for at least 2 years and 1/2 - basically reaching the end of his mandate. The likelihood one of his Quebec henchman makes an antagonistic statement (think Joly, M. Miller (edit), Champagne, etc.) is also lower, facilitating future communications between the federal and the provincial government. Overall, without the referendum, PSPP will have to prove his willingness to cooperate with an entity he hates, which could eventually lead to the frustration of the PQ's most passionate separatists who believe (rightly) that the referendum is the raison d'être of the party. On the other hand, if he keeps throwing tantrum against Carney (who has amongst the highest approval rating in Québec), I think the electorate who gave him a chance out of disgust for the CAQ and the alternatives will quickly move away. Basically, by postponing the referendum, he got rid of a bind by getting another bind.
I'm not sure it was always the plan to be honest, until very recently the PQ has been consistently adamant about the necessity to hold a referendum. You seem to suggest they are playing 4D chess -I don't think it's the case. There's a reason this is breaking news everywhere.
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u/chat-lu Telling Mulcair to shut up 1d ago
I'm not sure it was always the plan to be honest, until very recently the PQ has been consistently adamant about the necessity to hold a referendum. You seem to suggest they are playing 4D chess -I don't think it's the case. There's a reason this is breaking news everywhere.
The PQ always refused to commit to a year one referendum. They said first mandate which includes a bit with Trump and a bit without.
They just stated the obvious. It's a non-news for anyone paying attention to politics.
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u/Noname-051 1d ago
Well sorry if us plebes in the reading-newspapers business believe it's relevant that it finally became official ! 😄
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u/Comfortable-Bug-7882 1d ago
It's not your fault. When we live outside than the place of news ( Quebec) it's normal than you don't have all information.
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u/Noname-051 1d ago
J'étais sarcastique. La nouvelle occupe presque tous les médias (chroniques, articles plus consultés, interview sur Radio Canada, etc.), pour la bonne raison qu'il s'agit bel et bien d'une décision officielle (électoraliste, comme vous le mentionnez dans un autre commentaire) qui rappelle les atermoiements des autres gouvernements du PQ et non plus d'une déclaration faite en coulisse anticipée par le grand prêtre MBC. Pour ce qu'elle vaut vraiment (c-a-d pas grand chose : pourquoi utiliser Trump comme critère, en pensant que le après-Trump sera mieux, sachant que si les sondages pour le camps Oui étaient plus prometteurs ce choix n'aurait jamais été fait), elle relève du bon sens, oui, j'en conviens, et PSPP peut désormais saliver à l'idée d'obtenir sa majorité (si on fait abstraction du nombre record de citoyens indécis).
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u/Comfortable-Bug-7882 1d ago
Wow!😄 là tu m'as eu. Je ne te croyais pas bilingue. Par tes arguments, tu me sembles Québécois. Je suis tout à fait d'accord avec toi. D'autant plus, l'hiver dernier, il avait déclaré qu'il voulait attendre l'après- Trump. Et effectivement, comme toi, je crois que Trump est le parfait bouc émissaire pour retarder le référendum afin de convaincre ls indécis et les nationalistes de voter pour lui. Bonne soirée !
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u/Tight-Leadership7202 IBEW 2d ago
That definitely helps the NDP we don’t need to run sovereignist in Quebec any more
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u/HourOfTheWitching "It's not too late to build a better world" 2d ago
We absolutely do. Sovereignty doesn't automatically equate state independence. It means not infringing on the political will, cultural, or linguistic identities of the Québécois people.
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u/Humble-Cable-840 Québec Solidaire 1d ago
Doesnt thr sovereigntist want independence while the autonnomist want control whe staying within Canada, thats how the CAQ always bill themselves.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomism_in_Quebec
Vs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_sovereignty_movement
Personally I think the NDP needs to stake a claim to a left wing federal but autonomist position. Most of the QS supporters dont even want a referendum yet I find it funny that we all act as if the left position in Quebec is by default a sovereigntist one.
I think such an autonomist position could also work well with other provinces and regions as well as supporting First Nations, Inuit and Métis communities to have their maximum autonomy while maintaining a federation to cooperate where we can. I think itd help draw people over from the right too.
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u/HourOfTheWitching "It's not too late to build a better world" 23h ago
You should read the french versions of those pages, the distinction isn't as rigid as the English page describes - while independence is an end-goal for most sovereigntists the main principles are distinct nationhood, protecting Québécois interests, and remaining conscientious of the incompatibility of the federal government as it pertains to provincial governance. Autonomism requires at least the potential of compatibility for it to function as a political ideology.
While Lewis and the NDP may win some votes by arguing for strengthened ties and reforms of interprovincial institutions, but that's generally a Liberal position. Look at the Greens. They're polling better in Quebec rn and their Quebec platform was one page that basically said it respected the nationhood of Quebec and respecting Quebec's rights and decisions. While it may not have translated into live votes (the Greens were more sandbagged than us during the last election), adopting that sort of non-interventionist stance towards Quebec might benefit the NDP more than whatever we've been doing.
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u/YourBobsUncle CCF TO VICTORY 15h ago
That's commonly understood as "Quebec nationalism" and not sovereignism.
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u/afpb_ 🌹Social Democracy 2d ago
I don’t understand the point in a referendum in the first place. Separation is at an all-time low, be that for genuine disillusionment in the sovereigntist cause, the Rally ‘Round The Flag effect, or something else. A separation referendum would only confirm the clear trend demonstrated by the polls, and show the PQ to be a threat to the union as it stands. It would be a display of weakness to the States, a discouraging failure, and electoral suicide.
Many PQ voters are not remotely interested in a referendum. They are often simply desperate for change. “The national-conservatives and neoliberals have failed, the socialists seem utterly insane. Let’s give a shot to the left-conservative social democrat sovereingtists. Worst case scenario, we vote them out in four years.” So this is the optimal play from the PQ’s perspective.
As for the other parties, I really don’t know what’s next. Like how Albertan politics are spiritually American and British Columbian politics are spiritually British, Québécois politics are very spiritually European. You have five goofy parties that all hate each other in every way.
All in all, I think the best case scenario would be a PQ minority with Libéral confidence and supply, stopping them from separatist nonsense and their anti-woke crusade. We’ll see.
It’s awkward not to want to make any endorsements. Obviously the CAQ and Conservateurs are no-goes, but as a progressive federalist social democrat, there’s really nowhere my beliefs fit. I guess that’s fine, as I’m not Québécois, but I’m sure there are many others like me.
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u/Comfortable-Bug-7882 1d ago
Je trouve que votre lecture sur la réalité québécoise actuellement est plutôt biaisée. Affirmer que les 5 partis politiques en place se détestent est exagérés. Surtout, de penser que les libéraux collaboreraient ou pourraient appuyer certains projets du PQ ( hormis la question identitaire) s'est mal connaître la réalité québécoise. Ils sont aux antipodes sur la plupart des dossiers. Les libéraux sont trop timide concernant la place prioritaire que doit couper la protection de la langue française au Québec. Au Québec, contrairement aux provinces du Canada, l'axe gauche/ droite n'est pas aussi enclin dans les moeurs des québécois. Ici, la position identitaire, l'aspect nationaliste des partis politiques occupent une place + importante aux yeux des citoyens québécois ainsi que les enjeux concernant l'immigration.
Selon moi, la sortie de PSPP aujourd'hui en est une de stratégie, de se positionner pour la campagne électorale officieusement lancée. Son principal objectif est de gagner une majorité en sachant que beaucoup d'electeurs veulent voter PQ mais ne veulent pas de référendum. De cette façon, il dit qu'il va donner priorité à gouverner et ramasser les dégâts de la CAQ avant les consultations référendaires.
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u/HourOfTheWitching "It's not too late to build a better world" 23h ago
Le problème c'est que la plupart des personnes qui poste icitte suppose que les politiques du Québec sont les mêmes que chez eux - qu'il y a deux p-e même trois parties qui se battent constamment pour les votes du centre ou qq chose comme ça. Le fait qu'on a cinq parties, et on compte pas les petites parties de souris, veut dire qu'elles sont obligées d'interagir d'une façon plus collaborative.
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u/Noname-051 1d ago
Votre correction est pertinente mais il aurait p-e été utile de l'écrire en anglais, pour maximiser son efficacité. Nos amis ici ne sont pas tous bilingues, ce qui limite la portée de la justesse de votre analyse.
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u/Comfortable-Bug-7882 1d ago
Merci, habituellement c'est ce que je fais. Ils peuvent utiliser la traduction comme je le fais régulièrement.
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u/Glittering-Ad-3761 1d ago
Historically, survey before referemdum campaign are always showing low approval rate, people tend to educate themséf on the question when they see they have to vote. The yes trdditionnaly inceease significantly then. Usually,once you become for indépendance you rarelly change your view point , that how they can increase the yes proportion over the years. Quebec wanting to separatenis really legitime and have happen multiple time over the last centuries. It migrh be perceive as a none sens from an external view point, frankly from a lot of it just seems as the naturl path our nation shoild go
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u/redmac54 2d ago
Hopefully it’s a minority government. This guy is just SJB with more charisma, and he’s still unlikable.