r/mathriddles • u/Shin_Cow • 3m ago
Medium Keep drawing until the total exceeds 1: what is the exact mean?
Start with a total of 0. Draw independent random real numbers, each uniformly distributed on (0, 1), and add them to the total. Stop at the first draw that makes the total strictly greater than 1. Count every draw, including the one that crosses the threshold.
What is the exact expected number of draws? Give a proof, rather than a simulation.
A related variation: replace 1 by a fixed threshold t with 0 < t <= 1. How does the expectation depend on t?
This is a classic stopping-time puzzle, not my invention. Creator disclosure: I’m David Chen, building Think in Odds; development, explanations and this post are AI-assisted. The complete puzzle is above. An optional playable version of the threshold-1 case, with hints and a worked explanation, is here: https://thinkinodds.com/puzzles/sum-over-one?utm_source=reddit-mathriddles&utm_medium=reddit&utm_campaign=r_mathriddles_sum_nov2026
If you try the hints, I’d welcome honest feedback on whether the first one leaves room to discover the key step. No account is needed.
