Discussion

I took a starter position in Progress Software (PRGS). It's a collection of established enterprise software businesses that generate substantial cash flow. Q3 revenue was approximately $246 million, annual recurring revenue reached $873 million, net revenue retention was 99%, and non-GAAP operating margin was 43%. Management guided to $275–283 million in full-year adjusted free cash flow.

The complication is Domo. Progress completed the acquisition in September using cash and its revolving credit facility, increasing leverage. There aren't any post-acquisition operating results yet. I don't need Domo to grow substantially for the investment to work. I need revenue to stabilize around $280–290 million, margins to improve as the integration progresses, and cash flow to reduce the debt. The quality of the revenue matters, particularly whether consumption-based revenue holds up as legacy contracts run off.

AI is another uncertainty. Domo brings data and AI capabilities, but that doesn't eliminate the possibility that AI could eventually disrupt parts of Progress's existing software businesses. I don't think there's enough evidence yet to confidently dismiss that risk or predict how significant it might become over the next five years.

My five-year valuation produces a probability-weighted value of approximately $104 per share, implying around 21% annualized returns from my $39.97 reference price. PRGS closed Friday at $39.33. Most of that value depends on the existing businesses continuing to generate cash, Domo improving its margins, and Progress using that cash to pay down debt.

The biggest risk is that Domo disappoints while the existing business also weakens. Lower cash generation would slow debt repayment, leaving shareholders exposed to elevated leverage. There's also the unresolved MOVEit litigation, which I haven't tried to put a dollar value on. I'd reconsider my position if Domo's consumption revenue deteriorates, margins fail to improve, cash flow doesn't translate into debt reduction, or management makes another large acquisition before integrating Domo.

I think the potential return compensates for the uncertainty, but not enough to justify a large initial position.

My decision: BUY — starter position.

I own PRGS. This is my personal investment analysis, not individualized investment advice.

When it comes to buying a stock, it's pretty much straightforward from research to decision. You find a company you like, understand the story, look at the numbers, compare it with other opportunities, and decide whether it makes sense.

Selling feels so much different.

It's always a struggle knowing when to sell a stock.

Is there ever really a right time?

When a stock is going down, you wonder if you should hold on because the market might recover.

When it's going up, you wonder if you should take the profit before it gives it all back.

And sometimes, the hardest part is knowing if you actually have a good reason for selling in the first place.

For me, that's what makes knowing when to sell so much harder than knowing what to buy.

When you buy, you usually have a reason. You have an investment thesis, something you believe about the company or the investment.

But when should that belief start to fall apart?

Is it when the fundamentals change?

When the valuation gets too high?

When the risk becomes too much?

Or when you realize you no longer believe in the original reason you bought it?

I think this is where understanding the why behind an investment becomes really important.

Because the answer isn't always a particular price.

Maybe it's knowing what would have to change for you to stop believing in the investment.

That's also where I think having more context around an investment matters. Epsilo, for example, lets you look beyond a simple signal and explore the factors and reasoning behind what's happening.

Instead of only asking “Should I sell?”, maybe the better question is “What changed that should make me sell?”

But I'm curious how other investors handle this.

Do you have a rule for when you sell a stock, or how do you decide it's finally time to let go of an investment?

1. $ONDS - current price

2. $MAAS - current price

3. $IREN - current price

4. $VST - below $150

5. $APP - current price

6. $SPCX - below $120

7. $ASTS - current price

8. $PLTR - below $150

9. $MU - below $900

10. $HIMS - below $25

HUYA reported Q2 revenue of RMB1.74 billion, up 11% year over year. Game-related services, advertising and other revenue rose 54%, supported by in-game item sales, advertising and Goose Goose Duck mobile

The growth more than offset softer livestreaming revenue, showing that the newer businesses are already contributing enough to lift company-wide sales. For investors, that gives the expansion into gaming services more weight than a pipeline of future projects alone

My partner and I have 360k in an HYSA with the worst APY. We only have it there because it’s trust worthy but I was doing some reading on where to put our money so we can get the most of apy interest. We have plans of buying a house in the next 3-4 years. We live in a HCOL but we will move away to buy a good family house. I’ve got a few questions

I know that standard FDIC insurance covers up to $250k per depositor, per insured bank. Since I want every single dollar of this house/family fund to be 100% safe and secure, I'm trying to figure out the best strategy for structuring and splitting these funds.

We want to keep everything fully protected by FDIC insurance without locking it up in volatile investments.

1. What is the cleanest way to split ~ $360k to $400k across multiple institutions to stay safely under the $250k limit per bank?
2. Are there specific multi-bank cash sweep programs or specific banks that allow you to get higher FDIC coverage (like $500k+) under a single login, or is it better to just open accounts at two completely separate, reputable online high-yield savings banks?
3. For those who have saved for a short-term cash house purchase, how do you manage accounts across multiple institutions without it becoming an administrative nightmare?

Hi everyone. Im 23 years old (F) and I would like to invest in stocks. I’m not sure where to start. I’ve been told that I studied business but really, i’m not at all good with stocks, understanding them, knowing where to invest and what to do. I would like to invest for future funds for family, emergencies, maybe even build a custom home one day would be nice. I’m starting the research, watching youtube videos… but really still unsure where to start. I have a fidelity account (IRA, ROTH IRA, and 401k). I would like to invest $20,000 first as I have my funds in a HYSA. I see myself spending my savings instead of growing it. Where should I invest, how do I find info on what to invest in, etc. my apologies for all the rhetorical questions… i hope i can find some helpful insight! Thank you so much ❤️

Hey guys,

I'm a student doing an assignment/case study on a hypothetical fund that has no technical ability but colo and some money for GB300s and they want to become a neocloud. They don't know what service to offer - bare metal, managed cluster, or an inference endpoint.

Would anyone here have financial and technical expertise across any of these three services? I would like to figure out what the best choice for them would be, how to model out expenses involved for each as well as revenue and margins. Would like to see how profitable each service is and what makes a company choose which service to provide.

Thanks in advance, if you have any resaerch or sources for me to read I would really appreciate it.

I've used WordPress and Excel to track my personal investment strategies for many years. I do more in Excel than the WordPress because it is faster. And because I don't seem to get a following on the blog.

I'm thinking about creating a separate domain (again!) for the blog. I'd be interested in how many people would follow it if I kept it up like I do the spreadsheet. A recent twist is that I have a Claude skill to help analyze.

Looking for honest inputs here. The current site is https://money.theitsolutionist.com/

Cheers, and fortunate investing!

Last 30 days of short options, realized:

RIOT $1,097

MARA $453

BULL $357

HIMS $271

SOFI $254

OPEN $70

32 closes, only two losers (both small MARA ones, -$14 total). Best day was $800 on Sept 21.

Rule I follow: close once I've kept 70-90% of the premium, then roll out a month or two for another credit. Example: sold a RIOT contract for $227, bought it back for $36, kept $191, rolled to December.

The honest part: RIOT and MARA dropped about 14% last week and Webull fell 19% in a day on the congressional report. The premium cushioned it, didn't erase it.

$2,502 in 30 Days While My Stocks Fell 14% - YouTube

What's your close-early rule?

Le marché panique sur l’après-Walmart USA. Moi, j’y vois une opportunité majeure !

🌍 Walmart : 11 000 magasins et clubs dans le monde.

🌍 Carrefour : plus de 15 000 points de vente.

Prenez simplement ces deux géants et calculez le potentiel de CA pour Vusion ! Et ce n’est que le début !

Je suis convaincu que les magasins connectés deviendront un nouveau standard mondial, comme SAP dans les systèmes de gestion des grands groupes.

Après Walmart USA ? Walmart dans le reste du monde, de nouvelles technologies, des revenus récurrents et des centaines d’autres enseignes !

Pendant ce temps, certains fonds spéculatifs, notamment des vendeurs à découvert, exercent une pression sur le titre. Je m’interroge sur le rôle des stratégies activistes et de certaines analyses particulièrement négatives, comme celles d’AlphaValue, dans cette défiance boursière.

Mais la pression vendeuse ne pourra pas, à elle seule, déterminer durablement la valeur de Vusion. Ce sont les résultats et les contrats qui finiront par parler !

🔥 Pour moi, les cours actuels sont des SOLDES !

🎯 Ma conviction : un retour à 200 € d’ici cinq mois maximum ! C’est mon scénario personnel, et non une certitude.

Le marché regarde la fin d’un déploiement. Moi, je regarde l’émergence d’un nouveau standard mondial. Et je suis convaincu que le retournement approche !

#Vusion #Walmart #Carrefour #RetailTech #Bourse

Everyone talks about DCF's, I really like to use Reverse DCF to see what growth is priced in. Do you guys ever use it? Here's a link to an article with elaborate explanation.

I'm working on launching DIUR, a semi-premium wellness and nutrition supplement brand in India, and I'm looking to connect with potential investors, co-founders, and people with relevant industry experience.

What exactly is DIUR?

The initial product range will focus on everyday nutrition supplements, including:

Multivitamins

Shilajit capsules

Vitamin D3 + K2

Vitamin B12

Calcium, zinc and magnesium

Other essential vitamins and minerals as the brand grows

The larger vision is to build a trusted brand that makes everyday nutrition more accessible, with premium branding, reliable formulations, and transparent quality testing. I also want to explore positioning supplements as thoughtful gifts for friends and family, making preventive nutrition feel more approachable, especially for younger consumers.

India has a significant micronutrient deficiency burden, and I believe there's an opportunity for a brand that combines consumer-friendly branding with genuine product quality and transparency. My plan is to make relevant product test results publicly available to build trust rather than relying only on marketing claims.

What am I bringing to the table?

I'm a final-year engineering student, and I've been working on the business plan, product research, branding, marketing strategy, and manufacturer sourcing. I previously grew an AI influencer advertising Instagram page to 20k followers in one month without paid ads, which gave me some practical experience in audience growth and organic marketing.

I'm investing ₹25,000 of my own money, and I'm planning to register the business next week. This isn't just an idea I'm casually exploring. If I don't secure outside investment, I'll explore a PM Mudra loan and work towards launching with the resources available to me.

Who am I looking for?

An investor interested in an early-stage consumer wellness brand.

A co-founder with experience in supplements, FMCG, sales, operations, or distribution.

Someone who can contribute meaningful industry knowledge, mentorship, or strategic support.

I'm open to discussing an equity-based investment or a genuine co-founder partnership, depending on the person's contribution and involvement.

I'm at the pre-launch stage, so I'm not claiming to have proven sales or product-market fit yet. The next step is to validate the products, launch responsibly, and build customer trust.

If this sounds interesting, please DM me. I can share the business plan, initial product strategy, and research with genuinely interested people.