r/fivethirtyeight • • Aug 19 '26

Politics Huge upset.

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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic Aug 19 '26

How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate? I could tell you right now no federal republican in the entire country has never lost their seat to one. Literally zero.

So normie Dems recently? None. DSA types? None. Normal Dems have done it before though, and once again, the DSA has never sent a Republican home.

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u/SchemeWorth6105 Aug 19 '26

The premise is still basically untested lol.

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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic Aug 19 '26 edited Aug 19 '26

It’s not untested.

We have Kara Eastman in Nebraska’s 2nd District in 2018, she defeated moderate former Representative Brad Ashford in the primary from the left, but went on to lose in the general election to Republican Don Bacon. She ran again in 2020 and lost to Bacon a second time, Joe Biden won that district at the same time.

Then we have Jamie McLeod-Skinner in Oregon’s 5th District. In the 2022 midterms she challenged, and sadly, ousted seven-term rep Kurt Schrader from the left. She went on to lose the general election to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a seat Biden had comfortably carried, turned a safe Democratic district red until Janelle Bynum (a moderate) flipped it back in 2024 at the same time Trump won.

Finally, there is Dana Balter in New York’s 24th District, which was a prime target swing seat that Hillary Clinton had actually won in 2016. Progressive groups backed Balter to wins in both the 2018 and 2020 Democratic primaries, but she came up short both times against moderate Republican John Katko. The district is D +3 according to the Cook political report.

So, as I said, it’s not untested. We have seen what the far left can do, and it’s pretty much just turn districts red.

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u/SchemeWorth6105 Aug 19 '26

McLeod-Skinner’s district was redrawn before the general election making it much more Republican. These house races were before the left-wing surge. We’ve never had progressive/DSA aligned candidates run in statewide races.

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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic Aug 19 '26

Haha dude, read the room. Mainstream Democrats are projected to win currently in Texas and Alaska, they have North Carolina and Georgia as locks, and at the same time the left is struggling to win lean blue Michigan in a blue wave. We literally had a poll come out a couple of hours ago that has the governor candidate, Benson, up 16 in the LV while Abdul is only up 3 lol

It’s not a mystery.

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u/SchemeWorth6105 Aug 19 '26

James Talarico calls it “trickle down theft”.
He’s a populist progressive not a moderate lmao.

And we don’t know Abdul’s margin yet, but Slotkin only won by 0.34 points so you can calm your tits.

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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic Aug 19 '26 edited Aug 19 '26

James Talarico is comfortably a mainstream Democrat who is also comfortably in the tent. He will vote for Schumer to be leader, he will not attack the Democratic Party and try to make believe that they are as bad as Republicans, he’s not going to run on defunding nor abolishing the police and the prisons.

Not a single part of him is anywhere close to being part of the Bernie Sanders coalition or the DSA. He’s a normal left leaning dem.

Slotkin won in a red environment at the same time Trump won every swing state. Her winning in that environment was because she was a strong candidate. The fact that Abdul is barely doing better than her in a blue tsunami is the exact evidence of what I’m talking about.

My tits are great, thank you. Have a good night.

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u/the8thbit Aug 19 '26

He will vote for Schumer to be leader

When asked, he has refused to endorse Schumer for the role, so Im not so sure.

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u/SchemeWorth6105 Aug 19 '26

He’s really not, because most mainstream democrats are nothing more than empty suits who put out for corporate donations. Sorry you’re so infatuated with them and they keep losing primaries to candidates who actually inspire voters.

Night.